Critch, Ray
	Hodder, Steve
	O'Regan, Seamus
	Stewart, Georgia Faith
Incumbent:
	Seamus O'Regan

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			81979 81932 38290 35358 422.87 km² 193.90/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Seamus O'Regan **	20793	51.10%
	Anne Marie Anonsen	10890	26.80%
	Terry Martin	7767	19.10%
	Alexandra Hayward	740	1.80%
	Benjamin Ruckpaul	335	0.80%
	David Jones	141	0.30%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Seamus O'Regan	25922	57.90%
	Ryan Cleary **	16467	36.80%
	Marek Krol	2047	4.60%
	Jackson McLean	365	0.80%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		9366	24.21%
		17924	46.33%
		11103	28.70%
		281	0.73%
Other		9	0.02%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
St. John's South-Mount Pearl    (97% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Avalon    (3% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	06/09/21	Physastr Master 72.182.100.229
I have been duped before, but the NDP surge in Atlantic Canada is really quite striking, it's a near-vertical trendline mainly at the expense of the Liberals. 338 now has this seat with less than a 5-point gap. The polling could be wrong, but for now we need to work with the data we have, and that's hinting to this being close, in addition to the promising signs (pun intended) on the ground noted by previous posters. I say TCTC Also note this argument applies to SJ East, which I think is probably pretty similar to SJSMP without Jack Harris, but the polls are favorable enough that the NDP could get both St John's seats on their polling alone.
	03/09/21	LD 67.215.8.19
Curiously, I’ve seen a lot more NDP signs in this district than Liberal, though we all know lawn signs don’t really mean much of anything. This should be a safe Liberal seat, even in the face of all of his controversies, Seamus O’Regan still did very well in the 2019 election. NDP will certainly finish in 2nd here, but I don’t think it’ll be close. The orange wave and a severely unpopular Liberal party put the NDP over the top in this district in 2011, and it hasn’t been competitive for them since.
	19/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Incredibly enough, this turned in N&L's only Lib majority in '19--a measure of how its status as a generic ‘urban party’ could override regional issues and phenomena. And it takes a certain cheek to offer a dynamic-local-candidate NDP prediction *here* while everyone's falling all over themselves confidently asserting that St. John's East will go back to the Libs post-Jack Harris--though the inherent why-here-and-not-there does underpin why *I* can't join in those confident assertions...
	13/08/21	AGP 135.23.232.40
While it is an uphill battle, the NDP have held this riding before and they have a dynamic and local candidate who grew up and lives in the riding, with strong community roots. I’m anxiously watching this one.
	13/06/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
L'Atlantique demeure un terreau fertile pour les Libéraux. St.John's, dans l'Est de l'île, est assurée de demeurer libérale. Avec le retrait de Harris à St.Jonh, encore moins de phénomène d'attraction du vote vers le NPD dans les circonscriptions limitrophes. Bastion libéral qui n'est pas près de tomber.
	11/06/21	VanIsler 207.194.253.26
Popular MP/Cabinet Minister+Stable Liberal numbers=Easy Liberal hold.