Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-18 19:04:39

Constituency Profile


Archer, Bill

Ellis, Stephen

Foster, Jillian

O'Blenis, Jody

Osborne, Daniel

Zann, Lenore


Lenore Zann

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7905.99 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Lenore Zann 1667236.70%
Scott Armstrong 1621935.70%
Jason Blanch 601513.20%
Larry Duchesne 545112.00%
William Archer 6081.30%
Matthew V. Rushton 2320.50%
Jody O'Blenis 1440.30%
Stephen J Garvey 1090.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Casey 2952763.70%
Scott Armstrong ** 1225726.50%
Wendy Robinson 26475.70%
Jason Matthew Blanch 16503.60%
Kenneth Jackson 1810.40%
Richard Trueman Plett 700.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3150.84%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Dr Bear
I will have to concur fully with Libby’s comments. Originally I was ready to call this for the Conservatives, but strong PPC showing and the loss of the NDP candidate will benefit the Liberals (I would imagine that the incumbent being a former NDPer might help make it easier to vote for them). I don’t think it’s going to be a massive win, but this seat is staying red.
16/09/21 Libby Burgundy
So, to reiterate, we've got:
- No NDP candidate
- No significant national Green campaign
- A local population which is willing to throw out the party system in order to vote for a firey anti-lockdown independent
I think this creates a great environment for Zann. New Democrats don't have anywhere else to go, and the PPC's going to be suctioning votes away from the Conservatives.
15/09/21 Marco Ricci
NDP candidate Dan Osborne has resigned after anti-Semitic social media comments surfaced online. It's hard to say whether it will make an impact here, but it could shift a few NDP votes to the Liberals:
15/09/21 R.O.
Want to update prediction as the ndp candidate for this riding was forced to quit although still on the ballot and a lot of people have voted already at advance polls or by mail. think the riding will go for cpc candidate Stephen Ellis regardless. This riding has deep tory roots and all the ridings are now pc provincially other than 1 held by an independent former pc mla. Bill Casey seems to be less of a factor and Lenore Zahn not a high profile mp in Ottawa. The last narrative research poll for nova scotia from sep 2 had it 36 cpc, 33 lib and 28 ndp. And specifically noted the cpc was leading in mainland nova scotia where is liberals doing better in Halifax.
15/09/21 JH
NDP candidate has resigned, which I think changes the likely results in this riding. The 12% vote share from last time will most likely predominantly break Liberal, especially because Zann was a provincial NDP MLA and leadership candidate. That will likely be enough to prevent a CPC gain.
04/09/21 Murphy
Lenore Zann is highly unpopular in the region. Given the recent provincial election and the overall Liberal unpopularity, the Conservatives should pick this riding up.
03/09/21 JH
Should be a no brainer CPC flip. Even if it just follows aggregate vote differences from 2019 to 2021 Atlantic polling, it would be safely CPC. Zann is divisive at best - NDP voters are still upset with her for crossing the floor to the federal Liberals, it's one of the most conservative ridings in the Maritimes, and the Bill Casey effect is largely dead at this point - with Casey attempting to run provincially as a Liberal in August and getting absolutely trounced by a far right independent.
03/09/21 bluenoser
Should be an easy pick up for the Conservatives. Traditional ‘blue’ country, with a popular Doctor running for them this time.
25/08/21 C B
I think this is more complex than what some may think. No one seems to want to talk about WHY the incumbent MLA was just re-elected as an Independent. She was, indeed, kicked out of PC caucus. She was kicked out of caucus because she was vocal in opposing lockdowns. Her constituents then re-elected her. The only party that is doing the same is the PPC. This is also the most conservative riding in the province. I don’t think anyone will argue that. Many possible outcomes. Give it a few weeks.
19/08/21 A.S.
A couple of things to consider re Zann's fate: (1) what effect the Green implosion will have on the Lib vote (this was their 2nd best NS riding in '19--then again, their stronghold was traditionally Tory Amherst, so they might *already* have paradoxically helped Zann), and (2) what split-in-the-right effect Smith-McCrossin-style border-dispute politics might have (that is, cancelling out any wouldbe Amherstian ‘Green Tory’ return-to-the-fold)
19/08/21 R.O.
Odd dynamics at play in this riding , looking at the provincial results this was one of the bluest areas of the province yet somehow it has a liberal mp federally running for re election who used to be an ndp mla provincially. If it still had a cpc mp running for re election like it did in 2008-11 it be an easy hold for the party this year. The question is how well known is the new cpc candidate Stephen Ellis and how much appeal does Lenore Zann bring to the race.
18/08/21 Rational Optimist
I think that the Tories can take this one. Bill Casey running as a Liberal provincially just failed (abysmally) to unseat the incumbent MLA running as an Independent (having been kicked out of Tory caucus). I think his residual popularity is much of the reason that the Liberals were able to hold on to this in 2019, and his loss is a strong suggestion that they won't be able to again.
29/07/21 Bluenoser
This riding will return to the Conservatives. There have been a lot of gaffs by the Liberals over the Portapique shooting and delay at establishing a commission. Further, Lenore Zann had spread false information about providing Covid funding to Stanfields. Zann has been largely absent and only won the riding by a few hundred in 2019. Steve Ellis is a well respected physician and should handily defeat Zann.
08/08/21 Marco Ricci
The Liberals are polling at around 50% in Atlantic Canada right now so they may still be in the game in this riding. Bill Casey's residual coattails may have helped Lenore Zann hang on in 2019. This time she could hang on again because of the strong Atlantic Canada polls for the Liberals. Plus, new Conservative candidate Stephen Ellis may not have the same advantage as former Conservative MP Scott Armstrong.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster