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Thérèse-De Blainville
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:14:54
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Aubé, Vincent

Ayoub, Ramez

Bissonnette, Marc

Chabot, Louise

Paré-Poupart, Simon

Soumaoro, Julienne

Tassignon, Peggy


Incumbent:

Louise Chab

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

101840
98499

41060
40115

74.96 km²
1358.70/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Louise Chab 2448641.80%
Ramez Ayoub ** 2098835.80%
Marie Claude Fournier 52649.00%
Hannah Wolker 44317.60%
Normand Beaudet 27104.60%
Désiré Mounanga 3660.60%
Alain Lamontagne 2150.40%
Andy Piano 890.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ramez Ayoub 1828132.50%
Alain Marginean 1523827.10%
Alain Giguère ** 1402224.90%
Manuel Puga 700012.40%
Andrew Carkner 13522.40%
Daniel Guindon 3550.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

47159.76%
2418150.04%
496110.27%
1345627.85%
10122.09%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Terrebonne-Blainville
   (54.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
   (45.67% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


14/09/21 George
192.119.160.48
Mainstreet of Sept 13 basically has a tie, small BQ edge among decided voters: 41 BQ to 38 Liberal.
https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ThereseDeBlainville-iPolitics-14September2021.pdf
14/09/21 J.F. Breton
38.23.227.9
La remontée du Bloc dans les sondages, suivant le débat en anglais, devrait permettre au Bloc de conserver ses circonscriptions de la banlieue nord de Montréal, typiquement nationalistes et très sensibles aux questions linguistiques.
03/09/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
Louise Chabot was first elected in 2019 in a close race against liberal mp Ramez Ayoub who is running again. Riding had been ndp in 2011 but a lot of bloc Quebecois history before that. Think this area will stay bloc based on current trends.
19/08/21 Marco Ricci
174.114.237.78
With the Liberals leading the BQ in Quأ©bec by 7 points in the latest Lأ©ger poll, it's possible this riding could go back to the Liberals. Former Liberal MP Ramez Ayoub is running again, but we'll have to see whether the Liberals can maintain that lead until Election Day.
15/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
All won w/less than 1/3 of the vote, the three surprise Lib gains in the Laurentides in '15 were easy grabs for the insurgent Bloc in '19--though given how the Libs here gained more than 3 points in defeat, it was more a matter of the Bloc being more efficient at soaking up '15's vestigial NDP-incumbent vote. Don't think the Grits'll give up, particularly if they could build upon that Lorraine/Rosemere golf-affluence vote which handed them that term in office.
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
38.23.227.9
Territoire nationaliste et caquiste par excellence. Terreau fertile pour le Bloc Québécois dans la couronne nord de Montréal. Peu de risque pour le député en place. Cependant, proximité avec Laval, changements démographiques en cours qui avantagent les Libéraux. La lutte pourrait être plus serrée, comme en 2019. Difficile de se prononcer tant qu'on n'aura pas une idée claire de la performance du Bloc.



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