|People seem to fail to realize that this area is sort of like a mini-redux of small-C conservatives like Québec City. And with Legault saying vote blue, I can see the Conservatives winning this riding and its neighbour. |
Martel might not be a one-election wonder, but it will be much more impressive if the Conservatives get two in the region. People always seem to forget he coached the Chicoutimi Saguenéens to victory.
|Just noticed there was a mainstreet poll done for this riding perhaps closer than people realise and surprising numbers . 30 % Louise Gravel conservative , 27 % Mario Simard bloc mp , 26 % Stephane Begin liberal . numbers for other parties less than 10 % |
|A link to the riding poll showing a small Conservative lead - TCTC|
|Not sure why this is not in the TCTC category. Mainstreet did an individual riding poll in iPolitics today. Shows the CPC with a 3 point lead over the Bloc, and 4 over the LPC.|
|You might be inclined to argue no party had a complete disaster here last time - the NDP did reasonably well in the circumstances and 15% for the Liberals wasn't quite so bad. Though without the good candidates for the NDP and CPC that vote will migrate, and the Bloc can breathe a bit easier in spite of their apparent trouble.|
|Karine Trudel was actually a sleeper overachiever in defeat in '19 (the 5th best NDP incumbent in QC, in fact)--but one assumes much of that NDP vote will migrate to the now-incumbent Bloc. And all the more likely given how it was CPC in 3rd that year, not the Libs. (A star-candidate CPC; but, no matter.)|
|Le NPD n'étant plus un facteur majeur à considérer, le Bloc a toutes les chances de conserver cette circonscription. La division du vote entre les Libéraux et les Conservateurs devrait par ailleurs aider.|