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Jonquière
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:46:07
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Bégin, Stéphane

Bélanger, Line

Gravel, Louise

Ruel, Marieve

Simard, Mario

Yelle, Marie-Josée


Incumbent:

Mario Sima

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

89818
87596

43362
39306

39196.14 km²
2.30/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mario Sima 1757735.60%
Karine Trudel ** 1214124.60%
Philippe Gagnon 1033820.90%
Vincent Garneau 784915.90%
Lyne Bourdages 10092.00%
Sylvie Théodore 4530.90%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karine Trudel 1403929.20%
Marc Pettersen 1370028.50%
Jean-François Caron 1120223.30%
Ursula Larouche 812416.90%
Carmen Budilean 6561.40%
Marielle Couture 3820.80%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1592634.14%
1982942.50%
12642.71%
898519.26%
6011.29%
Other 520.11%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Jonquière-Alma
   (78.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
   (17.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
   (4.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


10/09/21 QuebecCityOliver
184.162.205.23
People seem to fail to realize that this area is sort of like a mini-redux of small-C conservatives like Québec City. And with Legault saying vote blue, I can see the Conservatives winning this riding and its neighbour.
Martel might not be a one-election wonder, but it will be much more impressive if the Conservatives get two in the region. People always seem to forget he coached the Chicoutimi Saguenéens to victory.
07/09/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
Just noticed there was a mainstreet poll done for this riding perhaps closer than people realise and surprising numbers . 30 % Louise Gravel conservative , 27 % Mario Simard bloc mp , 26 % Stephane Begin liberal . numbers for other parties less than 10 %
https://ipolitics.ca/2021/09/03/tories-leading-in-two-key-seats-but-polls-are-close/
06/09/21 George
104.232.37.216
A link to the riding poll showing a small Conservative lead - TCTC
https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Jonquiere-iPolitics-03September2021.pdf
03/09/21 LFCottawa
174.114.107.158
Not sure why this is not in the TCTC category. Mainstreet did an individual riding poll in iPolitics today. Shows the CPC with a 3 point lead over the Bloc, and 4 over the LPC.
02/09/21 Sam
188.30.14.227
You might be inclined to argue no party had a complete disaster here last time - the NDP did reasonably well in the circumstances and 15% for the Liberals wasn't quite so bad. Though without the good candidates for the NDP and CPC that vote will migrate, and the Bloc can breathe a bit easier in spite of their apparent trouble.
17/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Karine Trudel was actually a sleeper overachiever in defeat in '19 (the 5th best NDP incumbent in QC, in fact)--but one assumes much of that NDP vote will migrate to the now-incumbent Bloc. And all the more likely given how it was CPC in 3rd that year, not the Libs. (A star-candidate CPC; but, no matter.)
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
38.23.227.9
Le NPD n'étant plus un facteur majeur à considérer, le Bloc a toutes les chances de conserver cette circonscription. La division du vote entre les Libéraux et les Conservateurs devrait par ailleurs aider.



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