Brancato, Corrado
	Brassard, John
	Gostkowski, Aleesha
	Wilson, Lisa-Marie
Incumbent:
	John Brassard

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			109286 101584 40106 38071 331.08 km² 330.10/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	John Brassard **	23765	43.80%
	Lisa-Marie Wilson	15879	29.30%
	Pekka Reinio	8880	16.40%
	Bonnie North	4716	8.70%
	Stephanie Robinson	1013	1.90%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	John Brassard	22901	46.40%
	Colin Wilson	18308	37.10%
	Myrna Clark	5812	11.80%
	Bonnie North	1991	4.00%
	Gary Nail	199	0.40%
	Jeff Sakula	130	0.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		25226	61.27%
		8347	20.27%
		5153	12.52%
		2191	5.32%
Other		258	0.63%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Barrie    (67.44% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
York-Simcoe    (32.56% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Andrea Khanjin	22121	49.97%
	Pekka Reinio	12661	28.6%
	Ann Hoggarth *	5543	12.52%
	Bonnie North	3190	7.21%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		13733	37.51%
		14243	38.91%
		6211	16.97%
		2131	5.82%
Other		290	0.79%

	03/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
John Brassard was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019 , which were the only 2 elections this riding existed in these exact boundaries . although the area has been mostly conservative over the years with some liberal wins in the 90’s-2000-04 elections. One has to wonder what this area will look like down the road with new growth and new residents but as for this election its likely to stay cpc.
	24/08/21	Chris N 70.49.128.229
With increasing housing development and the mass exodus of Torontonians to the region, it will be interesting to see if the riding is still a Conservative stronghold, say, 5 to 10 years from now. Until then, this should be a safe CPC seat.
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
I don't think there was *that* much expectation of a close race in '19--after all, unlike the BSOM knife-edge next door, Brassard was already sitting on nearly a 10-point margin; and esp. in the aftermath of SNC-Lavalin, there was little expectation of the Libs to be in any position to defeat any Conservatives so well-cushioned (and much of that loose left vote migrated to NDP/Green anyway, so Brassard wound up w/a bigger cushion on a lower share). While CPC doldrum polling doesn't work on Brassard's behalf, further opposition vote splitting, plus maybe a post-Barrie-tornado sympathy vote, might.
	04/07/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
Many expected this riding to be close the last time, but Brassard took it by a comfortable margin. It may or may not be closer this time, but he is going to win here again.