Election Prediction Project

Beaches-East York
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:13:13

Constituency Profile


Erskine-Smith, Nathaniel


Nathaniel Erskine-Smith

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16.64 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith ** 3264757.20%
Mae J. Nam 1219621.40%
Nadirah Nazeer 802614.10%
Sean Manners 33785.90%
Deborah McKenzie 8311.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith 2745849.40%
Matthew Kellway ** 1711330.80%
Bill Burrows 912416.40%
Randall Sach 14332.60%
James Sears 2540.50%
Roger Carter 1050.20%
Peter Surjanac 430.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1300.27%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Beaches-East York
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rima Berns-Mcgown 2406448.21%
Arthur Potts * 1348027.01%
Sarah Mallo 920218.44%
Debra Scott 21284.26%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6821.59%

18/07/20 A.S.
NES definitely was one of '19's bigger Lib ground-gainers; however, when it comes to ballooning margins, let's keep in mind that he was facing Matthew Kellaway's NDP incumbency in '15. With the no-longer-incumbent Dippers in no position to mount a serious challenge in BEY in '19 (last-minute faint-hope Jagmeetmania notwithstanding), the promiscuous left-vote gathered around Nathaniel Two-Names--of course, it didn't hurt that he was less the barking seal than most Liberal incumbents, and probably the most ‘grassroots urban activist’ of Toronto's MPs this side of Adam Vaughan. Worth noting, too, that he did better than Maria Minna ever did during her 90s/00s tenure. If the margin narrows this time, it'll be a token reflection of how Jagmeet's stronger going into this election than he was going into '19. But look; it's a narrowing from *36 points*.
11/07/20 Stevo
NES is one of the best MPs the Liberals have got. He's far from Trudeau's inner circle, which actually bodes well for his future. His margin ballooned in 2019 vs 2015, going against the trend that election. Another easy win this time.
04/06/21 Chris N
The Liberals will hold this seat. While Erskine-Smith's reputation as a maverick is a tad generous, he has a lot of support in the riding and was re-elected with a large margin in 2019.
24/05/21 seasaw
Nathaniel Erskine Smith is one amazing MP, he'll have no problem getting re-elected

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