DeBoer, Reuben Anthony
	Erskine-Smith, Nathaniel
	Fernandez, Philip
	Moxon, Jennifer
	Rautescu, Radu
	Robinson, Lisa
	Ruiz Vargas, Alejandra
	Wilde, Karen Lee
Incumbent:
	Nathaniel Erskine-Smith

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			109468 107084 47849 45977 16.64 km² 6579.80/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Nathaniel Erskine-Smith **	32647	57.20%
	Mae J. Nam	12196	21.40%
	Nadirah Nazeer	8026	14.10%
	Sean Manners	3378	5.90%
	Deborah McKenzie	831	1.50%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Nathaniel Erskine-Smith	27458	49.40%
	Matthew Kellway **	17113	30.80%
	Bill Burrows	9124	16.40%
	Randall Sach	1433	2.60%
	James Sears	254	0.50%
	Roger Carter	105	0.20%
	Peter Surjanac	43	0.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		11067	22.74%
		20265	41.64%
		14967	30.75%
		2240	4.60%
Other		130	0.27%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Beaches-East York    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Rima Berns-Mcgown	24064	48.21%
	Arthur Potts *	13480	27.01%
	Sarah Mallo	9202	18.44%
	Debra Scott	2128	4.26%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		17218	40.09%
		5982	13.93%
		16737	38.97%
		2329	5.42%
Other		682	1.59%

	13/09/21	jeff316 216.154.2.54
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith understands that to hold a slightly lefty riding like this one he has to cultivate the sense that he's a maverick in the riding while quietly playing his third-line role for the Red Team in Ottawa away from the daily glare of his constituents. The Liberals lose ridings Beaches-East York when they appear to lose touch with streetwise common sense or become subsumed with team politics. Erskine-Smith gets this; he is Ted McMeekin-esque in his ability to be seen as not toeing all of the party's lines while quietly toeing all of the ones that are actually meaningful to his survival in Ottawa. This is exactly what residents in the Beaches want - to be seen a litle different, but still fit-in. As long as he can continue this approach, he will never lose. Politics at its finest.
	11/09/20	Not Non-Partisan 174.95.106.133
With the announcement that the conservatives are dumping their candidate here a very large pool of votes are now up for grabs. Do Tories sit on their hands? Do the NDP pivot and assign B-EY a greater than current priority in the few remaining days? Who knows, this could be closer than I previously thought.
	04/09/21	JC 70.24.89.29
The Beaches is a little village, NES is from the riding, checks all the boxes for what people in the key polls in the area want, its his seat until he decides to drop it. It would be surprising if it is competitive.
	04/09/21	NES convert 209.52.88.187
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith should win handily regardless of how well or badly the Liberals do. He has been an excellent M.P.; his constituency work has been outstanding. His independent stance will bring a significant portion of the swing NDP-Liberal vote.
	19/08/21	Laurence Putnam 207.81.215.3
Incumbent has been successful in cementing himself here with strong name recognition. Would take an incredibly strong NDP candidate in an incredibly strong NDP year to wrest it back. Not the case.
	16/08/21	BTG 69.159.73.114
Erskine Smith is near certain to win - this riding sometimes goes NDP (Kellway won in 2011) but it requires a Liberal collapse, as incumbents are usually safe
	16/08/21	Not Non-Partisan 174.95.106.133
Changing socio-economic demographics have made this progressively less socialist than it once was. While a significant core NDP vote remains, it isn’t enough to offset the continued arrival of wealthier, younger centre-ish voters. Nate is a lock here.
	14/08/21	Hammer 107.181.155.142
My home riding. I anticipate Erskine Smith and the Liberals to win in October. Interesting tidbit: Valerie Bradford, mother of the local city councillor Brad Bradford, is running for the Liberals in Kitchener South Hespeler.
	30/07/21	MF 38.113.170.153
Beaches-East York used to be one of the top two or three ridings in Toronto for the NDP, but it's clearly a second-tier target now. In the last election NES won with the biggest margin of victory in the history of the riding. The Beaches is very ‘Brahmin Liberal’ now and the ‘East York’ part is multicultural Liberal Toronto. NES may get a boost from soft Dippers and Greens for his independent streak.
	18/07/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
NES definitely was one of '19's bigger Lib ground-gainers; however, when it comes to ballooning margins, let's keep in mind that he was facing Matthew Kellaway's NDP incumbency in '15. With the no-longer-incumbent Dippers in no position to mount a serious challenge in BEY in '19 (last-minute faint-hope Jagmeetmania notwithstanding), the promiscuous left-vote gathered around Nathaniel Two-Names--of course, it didn't hurt that he was less the barking seal than most Liberal incumbents, and probably the most ‘grassroots urban activist’ of Toronto's MPs this side of Adam Vaughan. Worth noting, too, that he did better than Maria Minna ever did during her 90s/00s tenure. If the margin narrows this time, it'll be a token reflection of how Jagmeet's stronger going into this election than he was going into '19. But look; it's a narrowing from *36 points*.
	11/07/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
NES is one of the best MPs the Liberals have got. He's far from Trudeau's inner circle, which actually bodes well for his future. His margin ballooned in 2019 vs 2015, going against the trend that election. Another easy win this time.
	04/06/21	Chris N 69.77.168.248
The Liberals will hold this seat. While Erskine-Smith's reputation as a maverick is a tad generous, he has a lot of support in the riding and was re-elected with a large margin in 2019.
	24/05/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
Nathaniel Erskine Smith is one amazing MP, he'll have no problem getting re-elected