Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:27:01

Constituency Profile


Roberts, Adrienne


Phil McColeman

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



828.81 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Phil McColeman ** 2684940.30%
Danielle Takacs 2045430.70%
Sabrina Sawyer 1313119.70%
Bob Jonkman 42576.40%
Dave Wrobel 13202.00%
Jeffrey Gallagher 3940.60%
John The Engineer Turmel 1460.20%
Leslie Bory 1150.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Phil McColeman ** 2587440.90%
Danielle Takacs 1942230.70%
Marc Laferriere 1571524.80%
Kevin Brandt 15822.50%
Rob Ferguson 5150.80%
The Engineer Turmel 1640.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2950.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Will Bouma 2443742%
Alex Felsky 2380240.91%
Ruby Toor 55539.54%
Ken Burns 27414.71%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5891.18%

13/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Going to revise my prediction here, the federal liberals decided to parachute someone from Toronto into this riding for the third time in a row. This is not a blue seat though, it's just one that the federal liberals have given up on winning. Also it is basically as rural as Cambridge, and the liberals won that fairly easily.
11/05/21 Craig
Old trends are meaningless here. Brantford isn't exactly friendly for the Liberals these days and this is very low on the pickup opportunities list, incumbent or not. This is not the same Liberal Party that existed then - it is far more urbane and white collar, which is not a good combination for a largely working class riding.
Urban Brantford should be a mix of all three parties with no one dominating, but the Conservatives should still decently well (and so should the NDP, which will hurt the Liberals). The rural parts of Brant County is heavily Conservative and should put them over the top.
05/05/21 Jeremus von Storheim
I'm going to call this early for the liberals, and it will probably go liberal by a fair margin. The conservative incumbent has announced that he will not be running again, and his replacement candidates are not nearly as popular as he is. In the previous election you had a very popular conservative incumbent, facing a very unpopular liberal candidate, and a somewhat more popular NDP candidate. This seat is a very traditional liberal stronghold in southwestern ontario, before Phil McColeman there were almost no conservative MPs, and it stayed liberal in the 2006 election, while a lot of the rest of southwest ontario was lost. So given that the Conservatives and NDP are both running rather weak candidates, it should be the easiest liberal pickup in Ontario, even if they end up losing other seats.

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