|While I can't speak authoritatively on who will win, I can offer the following insights into this campaign.|
1. The NDP campaign is stronger than it was in 2019. More signs, more volunteers, and a much more significant presence.
2. Emily Brown is a polarizing figure. Her unabashed support for the gun lobby certainly has gotten her attention here.
3. Perhaps because of the gun blowback, Emily has retreated from public view similarly to how Jane Michael hid from constituents. In 2019 Karina won by far more than polls would have predicted because of the weak Conservative campaign and Emily Brown seems to be running that same strategy.
Burlington is a demanding place to run for office. The people expect engagement and openness from their candidates and as seen in 2014 and 2019 punish them when they fail to live up to it.
As such, despite provincial trends away from the Liberal party, Burlington may not see the same because of the Conservative campaign here.
|Not sure about this one being safe for the liberals and Karina Gould. Burlington has a long history of being a conservative riding federally and provincially , true its grown and became more urban . the cpc also ran a terrible candidate here in 2019 after Mike Wallace lost and went into municipal politics instead. So not sure Jane Michaels numbers are a good baseline for trying to determine how new candidate Emily Brown will do here especially during an election where the cpc is polling better.|
|It's absolutely ridiculous to predict a Liberal victory here, even more ridiculous to call this a safe Liberal seat, This riding is bellwether, if you look, since 1993, they've elected a member from the winning party each time. Right now, it still looks like the Liberals might win, so a Liberal call may not be so ridiculous, but that might change. The point is that the right time to call this would be days before the election, when we should have a pretty good idea about who's going to win|
|In order for Karina to lose, O'Toole needs to win attract an additional third of the Conservative vote and the NDP needs to have a generational result. This is safe for the Liberals.|
|Going into 2019, Gould was a common fixture in ‘most vulnerable cabinet minister’ speculation threads simply because of Burlington's vaunted ‘Conservative history’--without accounting for how Burlington might have changed, and not on CPC's behalf (and the fact that CPC nominated something of a bozo didn't help). And those ‘not on CPC's behalf’ factors continue to entrench themselves--or, one might say, CPC has changed ‘not on Burlington's behalf’ (hey, O'Toole tried)|
|There was some speculation in 2019 that this riding might be vulnerable for the Liberals. However, incumbent Karina Gould ended up winning by a larger margin than in 2015. This will likely stay Liberal next election.|