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Kanata-Carleton
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:56:42
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



McCrimmon, Karen


Incumbent:

Karen McCrimmon

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

110960
100846

40386
39293

764.83 km²
145.10/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Karen McCrimmon ** 2874643.10%
Justina McCaffrey 2436136.50%
Melissa Coenraad 831712.50%
Jennifer Purdy 43876.60%
Scott Miller 9611.40%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen McCrimmon 3247751.30%
Walter Pamic 2482939.20%
John Hansen 43136.80%
Andrew West 17042.70%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2728553.71%
776515.28%
1344526.46%
23074.54%
Other 00.00%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Merrilee Fullerton 2308943.19%
John Hansen 1559229.17%
Stephanie Maghnam 909017.01%
Andrew West 28275.29%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1434033.36%
1959845.59%
600013.96%
30527.10%


04/07/21 seasaw
99.225.229.135
Craig, you keep mentioning the well educated, urban, high income earners, as if the Liberals own this constituency, and for the most part you're right, this group have supported the Liberals since 1993.ln recent polls over 50% of this group indicated that they'll be voting Liberal, but a closer look at the polls indicates that Liberals aren't that safe, because when asked how likely are they to change their minds, a whopping 76% said they're very or somewhat likely to change and the big concerns of the group, debt and deficit, growing gap between the rich and the poor and housing affordability, all issues that the Libs get F- on. So, if O'toole can come up with a credible plan, we may see a reversal of 1993, if not, the group will just hold their noses and vote Liberal
23/06/21 Former Ontarian
174.116.136.78
Ludicrous that this riding is listed as TCTC. McCrimmon is a popular incumbent in a riding that is trending more urban, educated and environmentally conscious. Gone are the days where the rural areas, which were largely carved out due to re-drawing of the riding boundaries, delivered this seat to the CPC. Expect to see McCrimmon, whether the Libs hold government or head to Opposition benches, to win the riding by a similar margin as 2019. Should we see a Liberal majority government, I wouldn't be surprised to see her nudge above 50% as in 2015.
20/05/21 Craig
130.18.104.120
While Kanata-Carleton was fairly close in 2019, it is clear the trend continues to favour the Liberals. They continue to dominate among more affluent, highly educated voters who are predominant here. While they don't necessarily like higher taxes here, they certainly don't like social conservatism or (especially) populism. Karen McCrimmon should keep this seat solidly in her hands, even if West Carleton remains strongly Conservative. (After redistribution, Kanata will probably be its own riding and it will be even safer.)
In many ways, an excellent comparison could be made to Northern Virginia - say, Loudoun County or western Fairfax County - which have gone from strongly Republican to solidly Democratic in this century. This is not the same Kanata it was a generation ago either.



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