|Wanted to update my prediction , looked back at 2019 as well. I predicted it stay cpc and there was even a mainstreet poll saying cpc well ahead here yet somehow it went liberal by a small margin. As for this year with the cpc and liberals largely tied in the polls this riding should be a competitive race . the riding is an odd rural/suburban mix and new cpc candidate Carlene Hawley is from Elmira portion of the riding. Tim Louis has only been mp for 1 term but was also the candidate here in 2015. With liberals out of Kitchener centre its possible they focus more effort in the other nearby races. Riding went pc provincially in 2018 by a small margin when Mike Harris elected mpp in a close race with ndp who have never been much of a factor federally but somehow almost won provincially. Also not sure if any party leaders have been here , seems odd as it was one of the closest ridings last time and likely still close this year.|
|Tim Louis is running for re election after narrowing defeating long time mp Harold Albrecht in 2019. Perhaps the former mp’s mistake was trying to stick around too long and not allowing for a new candidate to run in a growing riding. Still a riding the conservatives held onto in 2015 and lost by a tiny margin last election so likely to be a competitive race this election too. Carlene Hawley is the new conservative candidate this year and unclear who the ndp candidate is.|
||Rt. Hon. Adult|
|KW has changed so much that it's likely that we'll see York Region go Conservative before even K-Con does again. |
Unlike the GTA ridings, where pocketbook issues are the big driver, this is a region where the United Church is growing (miraculously, some might say!) and the young professional families have bought wholesale into a scientism worldview that shows open hostility towards any fiscal, social or cultural conservatism.
How did this happen? For anyone who paid attention, the conservative Christian churches became too legalistic and when the millennials had a chance to split, they did so at whiplash speed.
|The PPC was the likely spoiler for the Conservatives in 2019. The PPC seem to be matching or slightly surpassing their popularity two years later. This will definitely be the race to watch in the KWC region.|
|With the way this riding has changed in the past few years due to the growth of West Kitchener. The CPC's only real vote pileups are going to be in Elmira as the rural population find themselves outnumbered - that won't be enough, and even if the CPC have a better election than expected I'm not sure they'll win here - after all, it went against the national tide last time.|
||Jeremus von Stroheim|
|Given the scale of the developments on the west side of Kitchener, I don't see how it can be possible for the conservatives to take this back. I don't think this even really classifies as a rural riding anymore. Liberal hold|
|Some thought this was a surprise pickup in 2019 for the Liberals but it is clearly identifiably with the growth of West Kitchener (where the Liberals won big) even though Harold Albrecht dominated the non-Kitchener polls. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, they are pretty much trapped until the next redistribution. The ideal candidate for the rural townships (largely religious and agrarian) would be toxic in Kitchener (white collar and highly educated) while a Red Tory would likely do more poorly in the rural areas. The population continues to grow as more developments go up and they tend to lean Liberal. Hence, the Liberals should hold this seat with a slightly increased margin.|
It's not certain if Albrecht will be trying again, but he might want to sit out this election and then hope the coming redistribution brings more suitable boundaries (i.e. eliminating all the Kitchener polls).
|Given how pared-back the urban Kitchener element was post-redistribution, it was a surprise this was so tight in '15, it was a surprise this was so tight *provincially* (and vs the *NDP*) in '18, and it was a surprise that Tim Louis actually succeeded at finishing the job in '19. Though maybe a subtle detail is how the ‘Conservative’ Wilmot/Woolwich element isn't so monolithically Conservative; that is, populated centres like Elmira, New Hamburg, Breslau are shallower in their right-of-centre allegiances thanks to their morph into K-W bedroom communities. And shallow support = weak ballast. Still, the composition of the riding makes it difficult to conceive of this going beyond the realm of the supermarginal unless the Cons are *really* reduced to a rump.|