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Kitchener-Conestoga
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:27:33
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Hawley, Carlene L.

Louis, Tim


Incumbent:

Tim Louis

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

100709
93827

33907
33470

895.74 km²
112.40/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tim Louis 2048039.70%
Harold Albrecht ** 2011539.00%
Riani De Wet 520410.10%
Stephanie Goertz 49469.60%
Koltyn Wallar 7901.50%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Harold Albrecht ** 2064943.30%
Tim Louis 2039842.80%
James Villeneuve 46539.80%
Bob Jonkman 13142.80%
Richard Hodgson 6851.40%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2191554.41%
735118.25%
945423.47%
14683.65%
Other 860.21%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Kitchener-Conestoga
   (71.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Kitchener Centre
   (15.79% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Kitchener-Waterloo
   (12.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Mike Harris 1700539.57%
Kelly Dick 1631937.97%
Joe Gowing 603514.04%
Bob Jonkman 28536.64%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1238734.32%
1325036.71%
748620.74%
23346.47%
Other 6381.77%


11/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
99.251.36.14
Given the scale of the developments on the west side of Kitchener, I don't see how it can be possible for the conservatives to take this back. I don't think this even really classifies as a rural riding anymore. Liberal hold
11/05/21 Craig
24.233.229.249
Some thought this was a surprise pickup in 2019 for the Liberals but it is clearly identifiably with the growth of West Kitchener (where the Liberals won big) even though Harold Albrecht dominated the non-Kitchener polls. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, they are pretty much trapped until the next redistribution. The ideal candidate for the rural townships (largely religious and agrarian) would be toxic in Kitchener (white collar and highly educated) while a Red Tory would likely do more poorly in the rural areas. The population continues to grow as more developments go up and they tend to lean Liberal. Hence, the Liberals should hold this seat with a slightly increased margin.
It's not certain if Albrecht will be trying again, but he might want to sit out this election and then hope the coming redistribution brings more suitable boundaries (i.e. eliminating all the Kitchener polls).



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