Abbott, Roberta L
	Barrett, Michael
	Cassell, Alex
	Rekmans, Lorraine
	Taylor, Michelle
Incumbent:
	Michael Barrett

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			100546 99306 48226 42749 3382.89 km² 29.70/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Michael Barrett **	28630	49.00%
	Josh Bennett	15482	26.50%
	Michelle Taylor	8201	14.00%
	Lorraine Rekmans	5152	8.80%
	Evan Hindle	988	1.70%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Gord Brown **	26738	47.40%
	Mary Jean McFall	22888	40.60%
	Margaret Andrade	4722	8.40%
	Lorraine A. Rekmans	2088	3.70%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		29989	60.81%
		9032	18.31%
		7839	15.89%
		2460	4.99%
Other		0	0.00%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Leeds-Grenville    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Steve Clark *	30002	61.27%
	Michelle Taylor	9688	19.78%
	David Henderson	6543	13.36%
	Derek Morley	2347	4.79%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		8499	20.49%
		23253	56.07%
		7219	17.41%
		2030	4.89%
Other		471	1.14%

	15/09/21	Cadesuffolk 192.186.99.102
A final prediction for my favorite riding: 21500 for Barrett and his Privateers, 14500 for a surprisingly competent and positive Abbott campaign, 11500 for the NDP paper candidate, 9000 for Cassell and the angry PPC guy and 4000 for perennial Green no-hoper Renkmens.
	03/09/21	Cade 192.186.99.102
Obviously a safe Conservative Riding, but not necessarily an enthusiastic one. The aging demographics here hate Justin Trudeau, mainly because he wears flashy socks and poses for selfies and reminds them that they are older than the Prime Minister. While the Conservative incumbent has a following from social conservatives outside the riding, he doesn't really advertise that here. I have noticed a surprisingly strong PPC support here, and the campaign has clearly invested some money. In my village there are several PPC signs on private property, several NDP, a few Liberals and no Conservative signs, except briefly in front of a few rentals until the residents took them down. People will still vote for the party because of identity politics, the Conservatives are the Party for rural white folks here, but they don't like this guy. There is an aura of sleaze around him, and a sense that he just isn't one of us.
	22/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Michael Barrett was first elected in a 2018 by election in what has been a long time conservative riding in eastern ontario so would expect that to continue.
	28/05/21	MF 65.92.13.223
Leeds-Grenville is a safe Conservative riding in rural Eastern Ontario. It will be interesting to see if Erin O'Toole, being from Ontario, increases their vote share at all from Andrew Scheer.
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Ontario-style Justinmania bandwagoneering vs second-term complacency is epitomized by shock marginality in '15 vs a nearly 2:1 margin in '19--and the combined NDP & Green vote nearly doubling in that same period, as said complacency allowed left-leaning electors to ‘vote their conscience’ a little. (And that the same NDP candidate would go from a catastrophic byelection 3% to a surprisingly strong 14% in the general shows that face-value strength or weakness ain't all that it seems.)