Election Prediction Project

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:04:50

Constituency Profile


Abbott, Roberta L

Barrett, Michael

Cassell, Alex

Rekmans, Lorraine

Taylor, Michelle


Michael Barrett

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3382.89 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Michael Barrett ** 2863049.00%
Josh Bennett 1548226.50%
Michelle Taylor 820114.00%
Lorraine Rekmans 51528.80%
Evan Hindle 9881.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gord Brown ** 2673847.40%
Mary Jean McFall 2288840.60%
Margaret Andrade 47228.40%
Lorraine A. Rekmans 20883.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Steve Clark * 3000261.27%
Michelle Taylor 968819.78%
David Henderson 654313.36%
Derek Morley 23474.79%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4711.14%

15/09/21 Cadesuffolk
A final prediction for my favorite riding:
21500 for Barrett and his Privateers, 14500 for a surprisingly competent and positive Abbott campaign, 11500 for the NDP paper candidate, 9000 for Cassell and the angry PPC guy and 4000 for perennial Green no-hoper Renkmens.
03/09/21 Cade
Obviously a safe Conservative Riding, but not necessarily an enthusiastic one. The aging demographics here hate Justin Trudeau, mainly because he wears flashy socks and poses for selfies and reminds them that they are older than the Prime Minister. While the Conservative incumbent has a following from social conservatives outside the riding, he doesn't really advertise that here. I have noticed a surprisingly strong PPC support here, and the campaign has clearly invested some money. In my village there are several PPC signs on private property, several NDP, a few Liberals and no Conservative signs, except briefly in front of a few rentals until the residents took them down. People will still vote for the party because of identity politics, the Conservatives are the Party for rural white folks here, but they don't like this guy. There is an aura of sleaze around him, and a sense that he just isn't one of us.
22/08/21 R.O.
Michael Barrett was first elected in a 2018 by election in what has been a long time conservative riding in eastern ontario so would expect that to continue.
28/05/21 MF
Leeds-Grenville is a safe Conservative riding in rural Eastern Ontario. It will be interesting to see if Erin O'Toole, being from Ontario, increases their vote share at all from Andrew Scheer.
08/08/21 A.S.
Ontario-style Justinmania bandwagoneering vs second-term complacency is epitomized by shock marginality in '15 vs a nearly 2:1 margin in '19--and the combined NDP & Green vote nearly doubling in that same period, as said complacency allowed left-leaning electors to ‘vote their conscience’ a little. (And that the same NDP candidate would go from a catastrophic byelection 3% to a surprisingly strong 14% in the general shows that face-value strength or weakness ain't all that it seems.)

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