Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:55:52

Constituency Profile


Spengemann, Sven


Sven Spengemann

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



59.90 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Sven Spengemann ** 2952648.40%
Stella Ambler 2274037.30%
Adam Laughton 51038.40%
Cynthia Trentelman 28144.60%
Eugen Vizitiu 7171.20%
Carlton Darby 990.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sven Spengemann 2827947.70%
Stella Ambler ** 2443541.20%
Eric Guerbilsky 47358.00%
Ariana Burgener 13972.40%
Paul Woodworth 3160.50%
Dagmar Sullivan 1110.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1960.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Mississauga South
   (94.69% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rudolph Cuzzetto 2252042.33%
Charles Sousa * 1863635.03%
Boris Rosolak 973518.3%
Lloyd Jones 15722.95%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10102.19%

03/08/20 A.S.
SvenSpen's increased margin in '19 was no surprise given Ambler's no-longer-incumbency and overall inner-905 dynamics--and also given the fact that Charles Sousa kept it Lib-competitive in provincial defeat in '18. That is, as much as the Cons can claim to rich-person ballast around these parts, so can the Libs--and strange how it can take defeat, even more than victory, to illuminate that fact. (The biggest ‘injury’ that Ambler's running again inflicted is its being the only non-Lib-majority Mississauga seat remaining.
08/07/20 John W
Sven Spengemann has worked very hard for this riding over the last six years, and the Liberals have done well here the last two federal elections.
This riding was the closest the Conservatives came to winning in Mississauga in 2019, but Spengemann still managed to increase his margin of victory over former Conservative MP Stella Ambler in a rematch of the 2015 race.
This time the Conservatives have nominated Mike Ras, husband of Mississauga's incumbent Ward 2 City Councillor Karen Ras. Karen is popular in the traditionally Conservative territory of Lorne Park, and no doubt the CPC will put a lot of effort into turning the rest of the riding blue.
Incumbent Progressive Conservative MPP Rudy Cuzzetto is losing ground in this riding at the provincial level, and I believe winning this one will be an uphill battle for Ras as well.
06/06/21 Chris N
In 2019, this was the strongest CPC riding for the Conservatives in Mississauga. If the CPCs can increase their support in Peel, this will be one of the first to turn blue. For now, it's likely staying Liberal.

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