|Another GTA-specific poll has come out, this time from Nanos, showing not just the same things as Campaign and Mainstreet, but with an even bigger 20 point lead over the CPC. They, like the others, are also confirming that the NDP aren't making any inroads in the GTA vs the 2019 election. The NDP's growth in Ontario is everywhere but the GTA. As such, I predict the Liberals will continue to hold Mississauga-Lakeshore after Monday night. It wasn't that close in 2019 and it won't be much closer in 2021. https://www.cp24.com/news/housing-continues-to-top-covid-19-as-key-ballot-box-issue-for-gta-voters-poll-1.5586585|
|Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Halton & Peel. With a lead like that, none of the Mississauga ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also pretty much unchanged from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view|
|First place here is an LPC/CPC toss-up as far as I'm concerned, with a slight edge to Sven. But it's a distinct possibility that the Greens' Elizabeth Robertson may come in third, relegating the NDP to fourth place for the first time since the 2000 election (Alliance/PC split that year). Robertson has been running an excellent grassroots campaign with a strong ground game and social media presence, whereas NDP candidate Sarah Walji has done virtually no campaigning whatsoever and declined an invitation to participate in a debate with Spengemann, Ras and Robertson on September 9.|
|Sven Spengemann was first elected in 2015 , this riding has been mostly liberal since 93 with the except of 2011 when Stella Ambler elected for the conservatives. although it still has the feel of a liberal/conservative swing riding due to its close races. It also went pc in the last provincial election in a close race. Conservatives have a new candidate this election , Michael Ras who hasn’t run before. Ndp typically not much of a factor here.|
|Based on current polling levels, the Liberals are down by 5 points and the CPC are up by 2 point in Ontario relative to 2019. While it makes this race closer, the swing is not enough to unseat the Liberals, even with a good CPC candidate…for now…|
|Mike Ras is a strong candidate, and this is the most conservative riding in Peel. Stella Ambler received more votes than any other Conservative in Peel in 2018, and provincially, Rudy Cuzzetto received more votes than any other candidate in Peel (from any party). While other ridings in Peel may be difficult for the Conservatives to win at this point, Mississauga-Lakeshore should go blue given the latest polls.|
|If the Conservatives continue to gain momentum, they can win a riding like Mississauga Lakeshore, but they aren't quite at that level in Ontario.|
|Having previously stated my opinion that this riding would be tight but that Sven should be able to hold on to the seat, I now think this should be listed as too close to call. Mike Ras has an excellent ground game, and is getting a lot of support in the more affluent suburbs in Clarkson and Port Credit. I still give a very, very slight edge to Sven due to his incumbency, but the latest projections and polling numbers I'm seeing suggest that this could well be the closest race in the country.|
|This is the most likely Peel seat to be won by the Tories. Michael Ras is a very good candidate, better than Stella. He’s a lifetime campaigner who knows what he’s doing. And his wife, Karen is a very popular Mississauga councillor with a real following. Spengemman? Another face in the Liberal crowd.|
|SvenSpen's increased margin in '19 was no surprise given Ambler's no-longer-incumbency and overall inner-905 dynamics--and also given the fact that Charles Sousa kept it Lib-competitive in provincial defeat in '18. That is, as much as the Cons can claim to rich-person ballast around these parts, so can the Libs--and strange how it can take defeat, even more than victory, to illuminate that fact. (The biggest ‘injury’ that Ambler's running again inflicted is its being the only non-Lib-majority Mississauga seat remaining.|
|Sven Spengemann has worked very hard for this riding over the last six years, and the Liberals have done well here the last two federal elections. |
This riding was the closest the Conservatives came to winning in Mississauga in 2019, but Spengemann still managed to increase his margin of victory over former Conservative MP Stella Ambler in a rematch of the 2015 race.
This time the Conservatives have nominated Mike Ras, husband of Mississauga's incumbent Ward 2 City Councillor Karen Ras. Karen is popular in the traditionally Conservative territory of Lorne Park, and no doubt the CPC will put a lot of effort into turning the rest of the riding blue.
Incumbent Progressive Conservative MPP Rudy Cuzzetto is losing ground in this riding at the provincial level, and I believe winning this one will be an uphill battle for Ras as well.
|In 2019, this was the strongest CPC riding for the Conservatives in Mississauga. If the CPCs can increase their support in Peel, this will be one of the first to turn blue. For now, it's likely staying Liberal.|