Baxter, Dorian
	Flemming, Tim
	Gagnon, Andre
	Kelly, Yvonne
	Kim, Harold
	Van Bynen, Tony
Incumbent:
	Tony Van Bynen

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			117418 109457 40722 39769 59.35 km² 1978.30/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Tony Van Bynen	26488	43.10%
	Lois Brown	23252	37.80%
	Yvonne Kelly	6576	10.70%
	Walter Bauer	3551	5.80%
	Dorian Baxter	901	1.50%
	Andrew McCaughtrie	588	1.00%
	Laurie Goble	104	0.20%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Kyle Peterson	25508	45.20%
	Lois Brown **	24057	42.60%
	Yvonne Kelly	4806	8.50%
	Vanessa Long	1331	2.40%
	Dorian Baxter	762	1.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		25558	54.06%
		7467	15.79%
		11207	23.70%
		2071	4.38%
Other		976	2.06%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Newmarket-Aurora    (99.08% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
York-Simcoe    (0.92% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Christine Elliott	24813	47.71%
	Melissa Williams	12405	23.85%
	Chris Ballard *	11840	22.76%
	Michelle Bourdeau	1859	3.57%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		19062	44.12%
		15865	36.72%
		5157	11.94%
		1749	4.05%
Other		1371	3.17%

	06/09/21	Nick M. 172.219.67.212
For the CPC to flip the seat, Erin has to convince soccer moms he isn’t scary. I think he has done that. Daily cummuters here are feeling the price at the pump pinch. Future breeding ground for the Doug Ford voter.
	04/09/21	Matt B. 174.112.6.162
There is a groundswell of support for the CPC in this riding. 338 currently has the CPC at 41% of the vote with a 67% of winning against the incumbent Liberals. This was a CPC riding prior to Trudeau in 2015, and looks to be trending back in accordance with the leader's declining popularity.
	02/09/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
As a two term mayor of Newmarket, I'm sure Tony Van Bynen is well known in the community. That being said, I don't think he is a uniquely popular politician that will overperform in this riding. If the Liberals and Tories are tied in Ontario, this riding will go Conservative. I think it's good that the Conservatives decided to go with Aurora municipal politician Harold Kim over Lois Brown who has more losses than wins as a candidate here.
	27/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Tony Van Bynen was first elected in 2019 so not a well known mp although was involved in municipal politics in Newmarket before going federal. In an odd twist the conservatives switched candidates and choose not to go with former mp and long time candidate Lois Brown and instead nominated Harold Kim a town councillor from Newmarket. Typically a swing riding with close races between liberals and conservatives.
	23/08/21	Drew613 198.103.96.11
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead 14 point GTHA lead and 49% support in York Region. I think this can be safely switched to a Liberal from TCTC. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Actually, relative to Richmond Hill and King-Vaughan and AORRH, Newmarket-Aurora *did* take more of a step t/w the ‘decisive’ (that is, a more than 5-point margin, and w/the former CPC office-holder now below 40%, and all of that in spite of a new Lib candidate)--and remember, too, how provincially in '18, Christine Elliott had the lowest winning share in York Region. So it's already undergoing a bit of a soft morph--though paradoxically, the parts with the most growth (particularly NE Aurora) have been the most Con-trending, perhaps because they have more in common (polyglot demographics and all) w/the growth further S. But even that wasn't enough to reverse the trend in '19.
	06/08/21	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
Aurora Councillor Harold Kim has beaten former Conservative MP Lois Brown for the CPC nomination. This could help the Conservatives in the Aurora part of the riding, but Liberal MP/former Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen may still have the edge overall.
	30/07/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
No comments yet? I guess there's really not much to say. Like Richmond Hill, it's remained close the past two elections and will likely do so once more. Remains to be seen if young 416 pandemic refugees will move this more decisively into the Liberal column.