Election Prediction Project

Niagara Falls
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-03 10:58:44

Constituency Profile


Baldinelli, Tony

Barker, Brian

Holm, Melanie

Kaiser, Andrea

Taras, Peter


Tony Baldinelli

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



508.81 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tony Baldinelli 2475135.50%
Andrea Kaiser 2269032.50%
Brian Barker 1256618.00%
Mike Strange 49977.20%
Sandra O'Connor 34044.90%
Alexander Taylor 9681.40%
Tricia O'Connor 3580.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rob Nicholson ** 2723542.10%
Ron Planche 2231834.50%
Carolynn Ioannoni 1352520.90%
Steven Soos 16332.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2590.48%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Niagara Falls
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Wayne Gates * 3016150.79%
Chuck Mcshane 2112635.58%
Dean Demizio 55549.35%
Karen Fraser 20573.46%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10372.04%

06/09/21 R.O.
Tony Baldinelli was first elected here in 2019 replacing long time mp Rob Nicholson who retired. The riding has been conservative since 2004 although had been liberal in the 90’s. it is held by the ndp provincially but Wayne Gates seems to have a strong personal following. Andrea Kaiser is back for the liberals and Brian Barker has returned as ndp candidate. But think riding will stay cpc if they were able to hold it last election . and Baldinelli is now the incumbent so better known .
16/08/21 jeff316
All three major party candidates are taking a turn again. Wayne Gates's coattails resulted in a grand 18% of the vote in 2019 - the Ontario NDP isn't doing any better two years later and Jagmeet will only attract so much in a riding like this. With the unpopularity of the Conservatives, Kaiser should win this with about 5% or so.
06/08/21 A.S.
What's with this tendency to assume NF to be an unbreachable federal blue-collar Conservative stronghold? During the Harper years, it was really more of a Rob Nicholson riding than a CPC riding, and weak opposition allowed him to stay on in '15. And also, just because Mike Strange was ‘right-leaning’ doesn't mean his '19 votes would have defaulted into CPC; in fact, his strongest spots were those within urban NF which would have been strongest for Lib/NDP. It was an ‘outside’ vote, not a strict ‘Conservative proxy’ vote. And of course, CPC hasn't been polling well at large (though yes, O'Toole's been making overtures to the blue-collar voter), and it's a Baldinelli-Kaiser rematch, and the NDP will always be a wild card on Wayne Gates' coattails. So this is an interesting riding w/fluid possibilities; hardly a boring CPC rubber stamp, it's among the highest on their Ontario ‘vulnerability list’.
07/06/21 KXS
A working class populist riding. Been a steady hold for the CPC since 2004, while voting in left-leaning MPPs like Kim Craitor and Wayne Gates.
The 2019 result seemed close because right-leaning independent candidate Mike Strange took votes from the CPC. It was also an open seat.
I suspect the CPC will hold on to this by a slightly larger margin.

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