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Niagara Falls
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:56:03
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Baldinelli, Tony

Kaiser, Andrea


Incumbent:

Tony Baldinelli

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

136292
128357

60574
56046

508.81 km²
267.90/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tony Baldinelli 2475135.50%
Andrea Kaiser 2269032.50%
Brian Barker 1256618.00%
Mike Strange 49977.20%
Sandra O'Connor 34044.90%
Alexander Taylor 9681.40%
Tricia O'Connor 3580.50%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rob Nicholson ** 2723542.10%
Ron Planche 2231834.50%
Carolynn Ioannoni 1352520.90%
Steven Soos 16332.50%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2874853.26%
1268123.49%
1020618.91%
20863.86%
Other 2590.48%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Niagara Falls
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Wayne Gates * 3016150.79%
Chuck Mcshane 2112635.58%
Dean Demizio 55549.35%
Karen Fraser 20573.46%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

732914.39%
1670232.80%
2413147.39%
17243.39%
Other 10372.04%


07/06/21 KXS
99.247.196.32
A working class populist riding. Been a steady hold for the CPC since 2004, while voting in left-leaning MPPs like Kim Craitor and Wayne Gates.
The 2019 result seemed close because right-leaning independent candidate Mike Strange took votes from the CPC. It was also an open seat.
I suspect the CPC will hold on to this by a slightly larger margin.



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