Lang, Nathan
	Lawrence, Philip
	Lester, Alison
	McArthur-Jackson, Kim
	Wilson, Christina
Incumbent:
	Philip Lawrence

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			112412 107840 49776 45742 2726.00 km² 41.20/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Philip Lawrence	27385	39.70%
	Kim Rudd **	24977	36.20%
	Mallory MacDonald	9615	13.90%
	Jeff Wheeldon	5524	8.00%
	Frank Vaughan	1460	2.10%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Kim Rudd	27043	42.50%
	Adam Moulton	25165	39.60%
	Russ Christianson	9411	14.80%
	Patricia Sinnott	1990	3.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		29376	53.36%
		11331	20.58%
		11611	21.09%
		2575	4.68%
Other		154	0.28%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Northumberland-Quinte West    (76.16% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Durham    (13.59% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Peterborough    (10.26% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	David Piccini	27386	45.32%
	Jana Papuckoski	14804	24.5%
	Lou Rinaldi *	14603	24.17%
	Jeff Wheeldon	2740	4.53%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		20584	41.52%
		17616	35.54%
		9156	18.47%
		2112	4.26%
Other		103	0.21%

	06/09/21	Sam 80.193.135.5
Colour me sceptical about the Liberals' ability to regain this in this environment. At present, the Tories are competing for first place in Ontario - this riding is a given on that alone. I don't see much of a reason why this might go a different way to Hastings-Lennox and Addington where there is a call - the swing in 2019 was bigger here. I'd predict a CPC win based on the current polling - though not because of some local dynamic - Philip Lawrence has been a fairly rank and file MP for the CPC but should be a decent standard bearer.
	01/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Phillip Lawrence was first elected in 2019 in a close race against incumbent liberal mp Kim Rudd who is not back this year replaced by a new candidate Allison Lester. Riding had been conservative before when Rick Norlock mp from 2006-2015 but went liberal in the 2015 election. As things stand now seems likely cpc holds there rural eastern Ontario seats.
	04/08/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
TCTC. The Liberals narrowly won this riding in 2015, while the Conservatives took this back in 2019. A weaker Conservative showing in Ontario, could result in the Liberals winning this again. I'm thinking back to the provincial riding of Northumberland Quinte West..when it went OLP in 2003/7, PC in 2011 and OLP again in 2014.
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
The *other* Justinmania-Lib-turned-Con riding in Eastern Ontario, although Kim Rudd didn't go into it quite as ‘Dead Liberal Walking’ as Mike Bossio--and unlike Bossio, Rudd isn't running again; plus, the person who defeated her has behaved himself and stayed in caucus. Interesting, though, that Lawrence won with virtually the same share the CPC candidate lost with in '15--but on the whole, the riding character is more of a piece with O'Toole heartland-moderation than with Sloan/Hillier/Gallant radical frontier populism. Which is a good place to be relative to whatever mood the O'Toole Cons seek to broadly project now--except that the ‘moderation’ part also explains why the Libs remain in the picture. In a way, this might be the closest modern-day equivalent to the more or less organic ‘swing ridings’ of old, from the days before Lib and Con support became overly ‘sorted’.