|there has been some talk online about trudeau’s visit to this riding yesterday and how safe it really is for the liberals this election. As the riding had been won by reasonably large margins more than 5 % both of the past 2 elections. It leaves some to wonder how close it is this year if the liberals feel they need to bring the leader to campaign here this late in the campaign. That being said Anita Anada is a first term mp who managed to get into cabinet and gain some profile in Ottawa. Her main challenger is cpc candidate Kerry Colborne who isn’t that well known as former cpc mp Terence Young didn’t run again.|
|I understand why the Liberal call was made here, but it doesn't seem that the Trudeau campaign would think it's right - his visit today seemed desperate and in stark contrast to the public polls. The argument that it was just a generic rally not targeting the seat doesn't help them much either, as this is likely the most vulnerable of the four Halton ridings (I would still think Burlington and Milton are pretty safe, ONB less so).|
In any case the swing dynamics here haven't changed, and I think now this is more likely to be a bellwether for this election than say, Peterborough. No Terence Young, but Anand isn't a strong presence either that those Young voters are likely to be pulled at this point. I suspect it could be a turnout race rather than a support race barring a late shift either way.
|Polling is up for the CPC in this riding, with a 60% chance of winning according to 338. This one looks to be a flip for the CPC from LPC.|
|Mainstreet riding poll has a very close race. Among Decided and leaning:|
42 Liberal 41 Conservative NDP 11
|A new mainstreet riding poll shows a very tight race in Oakville . Anita Anand is at 42 % but new conservative candidate Kerry Colborne is at 41 % |
|Oakville’s Conservatives and Liberals each have a core base of about 35% to 40% of the vote. Others usually pick up about 10% and the balance (10% to 20%) moves over to the national momentum. Right now, there is little evidence of an election happening other than road signs. Lawn signs are noticeable for their absence after two weeks of campaigning. This is not a good indicator for the incumbent since the opposition is much more motivated to get out the vote. Also, Anita Anand is not well known in the Constituency, she was the everyday face of the Liberals’ procurement failures throughout COVID and she was cited by Elections Canada as being a party to election cheating in the last campaign (https://www.cef-cce.ca/content.asp?section=agr&dir=un&document=sep1020&lang=e). With momentum now shifting towards the Conservatives, an unmotivated Liberal base and the prospect of a much higher early vote (locking in current momentum), Oakville appears to be ready for a change.|
|We're no longer working with a universe where the Liberals have a 10-15 point polling lead in Ontario, nor in one where the Liberals are likely to repeat their 10-point margin in Ontario in 2015 or their 9-point margin in 2019. |
Trudeaumania resilience in Ontario in 2019 owed at least as much to the top-of-the-ticket being a prairie social conservative as it did to any sort of shift in the fundamental makeup of ridings like Oakville. The CPC is polling even with the Liberals in Ontario right now, and a pocketbook, big-spending Tory from Durham isn't going to be the same drag on CPC numbers in a place like Oakville as Scheer was.
|Given the structures of historical electoral power, including the ‘universal’ reach of Chretien/Martin Liberalism and even to some extent PET Liberalism, let's not make too much of Oakville's ‘stealth bellwetherness’ since 1968--oh, and the predecessor riding also went Tory in '72, and by '06 the riding boundaries were identical to the present. It does remain a traditionally ‘blue’ riding, even if the ‘blueness’ were parked in Mitchell Sharp or Paul Martin Liberalism on occasion: just another version of suiting-the-moment establishmentarianism. But when it comes to the Laurentian-Lib-shifting recent past, let's remember that CPC support in the Harper years was itself establishmentarian-conditional, and that the Grits were still able to crest 30% in '11, one of their best results in a non-incumbent seat amidst the Iggy disaster (and parallelling Kevin Flynn holding on to a decent 36% provincially in '18--that is, it's not always about winning, but about how one does in defeat). It's true that there'll always be a high floor for Con support--but also, especially these days, a high floor for Lib support. And these days, those educated folk put off by present-day Liberal wokeness are probably more than matched by those put off by a CPC being dragged in a kookie direction by *its* diehard supporters. Besides, those teed off by ‘too woke’ will simply do what they've always done in Oakville: not vote for the NDP.|
|It's true that there is Conservative strength in this riding and the Conservatives could be competitive here again in a future eleection. But at the moment, the Liberals and Anita Anand are probably favoured. The Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives in the federal Ontario polls and Anita Anand has a high-profile as the cabinet minister in charge of COVID vaccine procurement. She also demonstrated her strength in 2019 by beating former provincial Liberal MPP Kevin Flynn for the nomination, and then beating former Conservative MP Terence Young for the seat. Anand is off to a good start.|
|I'm not sure why MF believes a 7-point margin is so insurmountable. Oakville has been ‘educated’ and ‘affluent’ since forever and it hasn't stopped the seat from flipping between the two largest parties, federally or provincially. This isn't Yonge & Bloor - plenty of educated people here disagree with the current woke direction of the Liberal Party.|
|MF has it all wrong, this was never a safe Tory seat before, nor is it a safe Liberal seat now. This is one of the most bellwether ridings in the country. Since 1968, this riding has elected only 2 opposition members, once in 1980, when Tory Otto Jelinek won it, and once in '06 when Bonnie Brown a Liberal won it, but wait, the boundaries were different then, in Jelinek's year, there were rural parts that he won and under current boundaries he would've lost, and in Brown's year, they were areas that now belong to another riding that she did well and under current boundaries she would've lost. While a Liberal call may be right today, we don't know what's going to happen in the future|
|The most ‘establishmentarian’ of the 905 ridings, over the last generation Oakville has gone from a traditional Tory seat to more of a safe seat for the Liberals with the liberalization of affluent and educated voters and in line with the GTA trend. In spite of the backlash against Anita Anand by Conservative partisans, she should have little problem being re-elected.|