Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:58:51

Constituency Profile


Carrie, Colin

Hossain, Afroza


Colin Carrie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



60.58 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Colin Carrie ** 2408738.90%
Shailene Panylo 1766828.50%
Afroza Hossain 1575025.40%
Jovannah Ramsden 31515.10%
Eric Mackenzie 12152.00%
Jeff Tomlinson 1120.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Colin Carrie ** 2316238.20%
Mary Fowler 1933931.90%
Tito-Dante Marimpietri 1658827.30%
Michael Dempsey 15222.50%
David Gershuny 750.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2940.56%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (83.91% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (16.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jennifer French * 2430144.88%
Bob Chapman 2259441.73%
Makini Smith 42787.9%
Deborah Ellis 19573.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 580.12%

31/07/20 Sam
While I would definitely pick Colin Carrie to win, this still seems like a good chance for the NDP. It keeps eluding them, partly due to Carrie's strength and their own local problems, but I would go TCTC at this point.
26/06/21 Hammerh
Carrie is popular locally and with O'Toole in the neighbouring riding, its hard to see him losing. In the end, it comes out to voter turnout and if the Liberal vote swings to the NDP locally. The riding is far more likely to vote NDP than Liberal.
25/06/21 Stevo
With Singh's NDP busily trying to out-’woke’ the Trudeau Liberals (an impossible task) and galaxies removed from the party's working class roots, I see little chance of making up that ‘last mile’ and finally overtaking the Conservatives. In addition, migrants from the 416 piling into places like Oshawa may goose the Liberal vote, entrenching the vote-split on the left and leaving the Conservatives comfortably in front. A working class-oriented NDP led by a modern-day Broadbent would leave the Conservatives in the dust here.
10/05/21 Chris N
The NDP have been eyeing this riding for over a decade. However, they have continually come up short, and in the last two elections, have had strong Liberal campaigns to fend off too. Carrie seems popular locally and will likely keep the riding blue.

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