|With both headlining candidates returning, and the Liberal incumbent not a big name in the party or riding, this is basically a 2019 rematch. The problem for the Liberals is that they only eked out a win that time by just over 300 votes.|
The PPC are making almost no inroads here and in Toronto, and with the NDP polling at around 10% and the Greens even lower than that, that indicates that only their die-hard supporters remain, so there's nobody left from those left-of-center camps for the Liberals to poach - there's no more ‘strategic vote’ out there for them to claim.
The Liberal slide and Conservative gains in Ontario polling, and in this riding, are not huge % numbers but are more than enough to make a big difference in close ridings like this one.
All of this bodes well for the Cons and poorly for the Libs. Barring some big Conservative/O'Toole ‘whoopsy’ this riding should go blue by a greater margin of victory than in 2019. This has gone from TCTC to a safe Conservative pickup in my estimation.
||Bryan in Richmond Hill|
|I'm not sure why this has been called for the Conservatives. There is a difference of only a single percentage point between the Liberal and Conservative candidates showing on 338Canada, and the PPC and Independent candidates will possibly draw some support away from Mr Menegakis; NDP support is only about 10% in Richmond Hill and the tightness of the polls may panic a few NDP supporters into voting Liberal. I think Richmond Hill will be a nail-biter on Monday night. Too close to call right now.|
|This was one of the closest ridings in Ontario last election which surprised some due to its location near Toronto. Rematch of Majid Gowhari liberal mp vs Costas Menegaskis conservative who had been mp for one term in 2011. Adam Devita is also back as the ndp candidate and riding features no green candidate. As long the conservatives improve slightly in Ontario and competitive in the suburbs around Toronto it would seem like a riding there focused on. Both o’toole and trudeau have made campaign stops in York region ridings as there typically a liberal/cpc race with little ndp.|
|This riding will for certain be a flip to the CPC - 338 has classified it as CPC leaning with an 88% chance of turning blue. This is one will definitely be a loss for the Liberals.|
|The Liberal MP has done a good job to to deserve re-election. Unfortunately for him the incumbent MP factor is small in York Region (exception Maple/Vaughan).|
With polls showing LPC polling provincially 5 points down, while the CPC polling 5 point ahead, I expect a switch in regards to this riding.
|Agree with seasaw, Costas Menegakis will win this election. Looking at the lawn signs on the private properties. You can easily sense it.|
|Re Israel/Iran: this riding's particular demographic mix means that any plusses or minusses behind Jowhari's political optics cancel one another out (and besides, the Jewishness in Richmond Hill is scanty compared to what lies across Bathurst or the 407). And re the demographic explanation behind Richmond Hill's narrowness--first, it's a York Region, not Peel Region, dynamic; and second, it's the affluent Asian demos in the E swinging rightward over the past decade, so it's all kinfolk to why Markham-Unionville next door is presently Conservative. Or why Richmond (in BC) went from being a rare spot of Liberal red in 90s-era Greater Vancouver, to being a rare spot of CPC blue in 2015-era Greater Vancouver.|
|I feel it's a combination of Menegakis being a good candidate and Jowhari being a poor candidate that resulted in this being closer than expected last time around. |
It should be noted that former Liberal MPP Reza Moridi actually endorsed Menegakis over Jowhari last time around.
That being said, I think the Liberals have a slight advantage in the current political climate.
|Interesting how Richmond Hill has remained very close despite Liberal GTA landslides. It's still the same Asian/Jewish/Iranian/Anglo mix it always was, so I'm not sure what demographic explanation there might be to explain it. Differs markedly from the Liberal automaton ridings over in Peel region. Expect significant CPC resources to flow in here if the national race remains within a few points.|
|Costas Menegakis was a good MP who lost his seat in the change election of 2015. Majid Jowhari won a close race in 2015, and barely squeeked by in 2019, and BTW, elections Canada is looking at the last election results. Jowhari has been a very bad MP, and the fact that he put his name in for Canada boycotting Israel, and wanting closer relationship with the Iranian government, won't help him any in this riding. Even if the CPC loses the election, they'll take this seat.|