Election Prediction Project

Toronto-St. Paul's
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:58:58

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Carolyn


Carolyn Bennett

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13.10 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Carolyn Bennett ** 3249454.30%
Jae Truesdell 1293321.60%
Alok Mukherjee 944215.80%
Sarah Climenhaga 40426.80%
John Kellen 9231.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carolyn Bennett ** 3148155.30%
Marnie MacDougall 1537627.00%
Noah Richler 838614.70%
Kevin Farmer 17293.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2670.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. Paul's
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jill Andrew 1884335.96%
Jess Spindler 1749833.39%
Andrew Kirsch 1378026.3%
Teresa Pun 16903.23%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5211.18%

28/07/20 Stevo
Carolyn Bennett, like Judy Sgro and Hedy Fry, is another one of these relics of the Chretien/Martin era and decades past their sell-by date, but saved time and again by virtue of their safe-seat privilege.
18/07/20 A.S.
Interestingly, '19 *wasn't* the first time the ‘united left’ outpolled the Conservatives in St. Paul's--they managed to do so in 2004 as well, though it's understandable that few noticed. And don't be surprised if the NDP assumes 2nd place *outright* next time around--one might argue, a poetically ‘orange’ electoral response to Bennett's text to Puglaas. Another sleeper detail: for all that St. Paul's is discussed in terms of Lib ultra-safety, the recent federal Lib ceiling has only been around the 54-55% range (except for 58% in, once more, 2004). It's divided opposition demographics and dynamics, not monolithic Lib-red vote, that's kept the party in all of this time.
15/05/21 MF
The Westmount of Toronto, St. Paul's is a super-safe ‘Brahmin Liberal’ riding. It looks like Carolyn Bennett is running again, but this would be the perfect riding for Mark Carney should he decide to enter federal politics. Also of note: not only have the Conservatives long ceased to be electable in St. Paul's, but more voted for progressive opposition parties (i.e. NDP + Green) than for the Conservatives for the first time in the last federal election.
10/05/21 Chris N
This is a very safe Liberal seat that has stayed red federally since 1993. The Liberals would need a national Kim Campbell-level wipe out to lose St. Paul's.

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