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Scarborough-Guildwood
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:08:23
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Incumbent:

John McKay

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

102386
101914

37014
35887

25.96 km²
3944.70/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

John McKay ** 2612361.10%
Quintus Thuraisingham 955322.40%
Michelle Spencer 480611.20%
Tara McMahon 12202.90%
Jigna Jani 6481.50%
Kevin Clarke 1120.30%
Gus Stefanis 850.20%
Stephen Abara 700.20%
Kathleen Marie Holding 700.20%
Farhan Alvi 550.10%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John McKay ** 2516760.00%
Chuck Konkel 1110826.50%
Laura Casselman 472011.30%
Kathleen Holding 6061.40%
Kevin Clarke 1750.40%
Paul Coulbeck 1410.30%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1199834.68%
923526.70%
1238135.79%
7702.23%
Other 2070.60%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Scarborough-Guildwood
   (88.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Scarborough Centre
   (11.76% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Mitzie Hunter * 1197233.34%
Roshan Nallaratnam 1189833.14%
Tom Packwood 991727.62%
Linda Rice 8782.45%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1615450.35%
896427.94%
544816.98%
9022.81%
Other 6141.91%


28/07/20 A.S.
64.114.255.114
What enhances that element of epic Liberal resilience is the Islamic communities around Markham & Lawrence (they enabled McKay to hold on in '11, and Mitzie Hunter provincially in '18). And as w/Scarborough Centre, under the present climate a CPC-NDP battle for second couldn't be ruled out.
09/07/20 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country. So safe that McKay was able to hold onto Scarborough Guildwood during the Liberal Ignatieff collapse of 2011.
05/05/21 JW
45.41.168.96
CPC won over 80% in most rural Aberta ridings last time.



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