Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Scarborough Southwest
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:56:19
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Blair, Bill


Incumbent:

Bill Blair

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

110278
106733

43158
41451

27.96 km²
3944.80/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bill Blair ** 2896557.20%
Kimberly Fawcett Smith 1050220.70%
Keith McCrady 786515.50%
Amanda Cain 24774.90%
Italo Eratostene 5901.20%
Simon Luisi 2360.50%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Blair 2558652.50%
Dan Harris ** 1157423.70%
Roshan Nallaratnam 1034721.20%
Tommy Taylor 12592.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1247431.68%
1373034.87%
1155429.34%
16014.07%
Other 200.05%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Scarborough Southwest
   (93.49% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Scarborough-Guildwood
   (6.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Doly Begum 1983545.66%
Gary Ellis 1356531.22%
Lorenzo Berardinetti * 822818.94%
David Del Grande 11742.7%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1812349.93%
761120.97%
855523.57%
14764.07%
Other 5301.46%


28/07/20 A.S.
64.114.255.114
SSW's recent history has been as a Liberal stronghold, but for much of that time not as a terribly illustrious one (that is, notorious Lib socon Tom Wappel being its rep for 2 whole decades). At least Bill Blair is more cabinet-mainstream than maverick-outsider, i.e. less incentive to ‘stop him’--though it's still the likeliest of Scarborough's ridings to put the NDP in 2nd. (I guess it's a sign of Justin-era electoral maturity that the local Libs don't require the crutch of ‘Bloc Scarberia’ crankiness any longer.)
04/06/21 Chris N
69.77.168.248
Bill Blair was re-elected in 2019 by a large margin. Other than the orange wave in 2011, Scarborough Southwest has historically been a federal Liberal stronghold. I don't expect that to change this election.



Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster