Arale, Guled
	Bhuiyan, Mohsin
	Blair, Bill
	Cain, Amanda
	Pache, Ramona
	Poon, David Edward-Ooi
Incumbent:
	Bill Blair

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			110278 106733 43158 41451 27.96 km² 3944.80/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Bill Blair **	28965	57.20%
	Kimberly Fawcett Smith	10502	20.70%
	Keith McCrady	7865	15.50%
	Amanda Cain	2477	4.90%
	Italo Eratostene	590	1.20%
	Simon Luisi	236	0.50%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Bill Blair	25586	52.50%
	Dan Harris **	11574	23.70%
	Roshan Nallaratnam	10347	21.20%
	Tommy Taylor	1259	2.60%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		12474	31.68%
		13730	34.87%
		11554	29.34%
		1601	4.07%
Other		20	0.05%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Scarborough Southwest    (93.49% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Scarborough-Guildwood    (6.51% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Doly Begum	19835	45.66%
	Gary Ellis	13565	31.22%
	Lorenzo Berardinetti *	8228	18.94%
	David Del Grande	1174	2.7%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		18123	49.93%
		7611	20.97%
		8555	23.57%
		1476	4.07%
Other		530	1.46%

	08/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Bill Blair was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. This riding has mostly been a liberal riding in recent elections but had been ndp in 2011 and a swing riding decades ago. Provincially still somewhat of a swing riding as it had been pc in the 90’s , liberal for a number of year and went ndp in 2018 provincial election. Oddly the cpc didn’t bring back Kimberly Fawcett Smith as a candidate she lost the nomination to Mohsin Bhuiyan a new relatively unknown candidate.
	28/07/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
SSW's recent history has been as a Liberal stronghold, but for much of that time not as a terribly illustrious one (that is, notorious Lib socon Tom Wappel being its rep for 2 whole decades). At least Bill Blair is more cabinet-mainstream than maverick-outsider, i.e. less incentive to ‘stop him’--though it's still the likeliest of Scarborough's ridings to put the NDP in 2nd. (I guess it's a sign of Justin-era electoral maturity that the local Libs don't require the crutch of ‘Bloc Scarberia’ crankiness any longer.)
	04/06/21	Chris N 69.77.168.248
Bill Blair was re-elected in 2019 by a large margin. Other than the orange wave in 2011, Scarborough Southwest has historically been a federal Liberal stronghold. I don't expect that to change this election.