|One of the surprises post 2019 election was the rise of Eric Duncan within the cpc caucus. Who was virtually unknown before but most who follow Ottawa politics would be familiar with him by now. The riding has been cpc since 2004. Also odd former liberal candidate appointed to the senate as an independent despite running as a liberal here.|
|Over the past decades now, the Liberals have shed too much of the Cornwall vote to the NDP and too much of the rural vote to the Tories to be viable in this riding.|
Consequently, this riding will stay Tory barring a divided right or some other significant partisan realignment in federal politics.
|If the Liberal thinks they have ANY chance of picking this up, her worship would have stay put and not accept an appointment to the upper chamber. |
Plus, Duncan as an openly gay conservative MP from outside of the urban centres is too good of a symbol for the party not to protect. Easy hold.
|Seems strange to me that the Conservative vote proved more resilient here in Stormont than in Leeds-Grenville the past two elections. In any case, doesn't appear that the conservative strength in rural Eastern Ontario that began with the Alliance in 2000 is abating.|
|Yeah, Bernadette Clement in the Senate adds an interesting twist to the local Liberal picture, even if it has (and will have) little to do with actual *electoral* politics--but had *she* decided to give it another electoral go, the notion of a SDSG race btw/an openly gay Conservative and a female POC Liberal (even if the former was heavily favoured) would certainly have thrown a lot of people for a loop. As disarming a representative as Eric Duncan is, though, *somebody* in Cornwall has got to figure out a formula for not being an eternal go-with-the-flow sitting duck for those Putin-esque Conservative margins in Dundas County. (And much as in Leeds-Grenville, nothing-to-lose ‘voting one's conscience’ led to a surprisingly high NDP figure in '19--come to think of it, Cornwall *is* NDP-esque, and voted for the party provincially in the 70s. But now we're *really* getting ahead of ourselves.)|
|The Liberal campaign strategy of making the Conservatives appear socially conservative is not going to yield much here. Indeed, the gay conservative MP here has been quite vocal in the house of commons regarding various social shortcomings of the Liberals. |
Guaranteed CPC hold