Election Prediction Project

Wellington-Halton Hills
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:34

Constituency Profile


Carle, Syl

Chong, Michael

Jahangir, Noor

Lang, Melanie

Zhu, Ran


Michael Chong

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1487.86 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Michael Chong ** 3304447.40%
Lesley Barron 1977728.40%
Ralph Martin 885112.70%
Andrew Bascombe 64999.30%
Syl Carle 15092.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michael Chong ** 3248250.90%
Don Trant 2327936.50%
Anne Gajerski-Cauley 53218.30%
Brent Allan Bouteiller 25474.00%
Harvey Edward Anstey 1830.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3150.57%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Wellington-Halton Hills
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ted Arnott * 3165954%
Diane Ballantyne 1408724.03%
Jon Hurst 749212.78%
Dave Rodgers 50668.64%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 12412.58%

17/08/21 R.O.
Michael Chong has been mp for this riding since 2004 , been some growth in the southern portion of the riding since then either way would expect him to hold this one.
07/05/21 Chris N
Michael Chong has won this riding since 2004, including the Trudeau wave in 2015. Yes, the demographics of the riding are changing, including more Liberal-inclined voters in the growing suburbs, but barring a CPC Kim Campbell level collapse, this will be a safe blue riding.
08/08/21 A.S.
Chong's support softened in '19 (he was no longer majority); but the Libs softened a lot more--what happened is that it became Ontario's 5th best Green riding (and given its neighbours, including the fact that it surrounds Guelph riding, why not). One result of this is that the centres of Elora & Fergus ceased to be the ‘nodes of red’ they were in '15, as a lot of that energy leaked leftward--meanwhile, the Green dead zone of suburban Georgetown saw plenty of instances of Libs and CPC being jointly above par. And negligible hint of what lay beyond (Adam Van K's conquering of Milton, the thorough ethnoburbanizing Lib dominance of Brampton, etc). Though actually, given that adjacency, I wonder if there might be rumblings on the horizon from ‘Chong moderate’ vote-parkers who aren't on-board with the drift to the right of the CPC grassroots--not to the point of defeat; but the Halton Hills electoral map might wind up looking a lot ‘redder’...

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