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Humber River-Black Creek
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:56:46
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Sgro, Judy


Incumbent:

Judy Sgro

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

108037
108198

39013
36159

30.56 km²
3535.50/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Judy Sgro ** 2318761.10%
Maria Augimeri 719819.00%
Iftikhar Choudry 616416.20%
Mike Schmitz 8042.10%
Ania Krosinska 4021.10%
Stenneth Smith 1140.30%
Christine Nugent 890.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Judy Sgro ** 2399566.90%
Kerry Vandenberg 722820.20%
Darnel Harris 385110.70%
Keith Jarrett 5841.60%
Christine Nugent 2010.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

612222.08%
772127.85%
1303047.00%
4501.62%
Other 4011.45%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   York West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Tom Rakocevic 1157337.42%
Cyma Musarat 936730.29%
Deanna Sgro 864227.94%
Kirsten J. Bennett 4851.57%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1190746.71%
279410.96%
999739.21%
4181.64%
Other 3781.48%


28/07/20 A.S.
64.114.255.114
The more proper comparison that Kim Campbell would be Kathleen Wynne; and in the '18 provincial disaster, Sgro's daughter *did* finish 3rd. We're far from that likelihood, though--but certainly, Sgro's ‘hacky’ enough to be targetable in case things *really* go to pot for the Libs. Still, the NDP threw the best they'd got (former Councillor Maria Augimeri) in '19, and didn't come anywhere close--then again, in *that* election, they were probably prepared for something even Audrey/Alexa-level worse...
09/06/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This has historically been one of the safest federal Liberal seats in Ontario. It would take a Kim Campbell-level collapse for the Liberals to lose this riding next election.



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