Election Prediction Project

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:12:02

Constituency Profile


Dwyer, Madelaine

Eyolfson, Doug

Morantz, Marty

Parks, Vanessa

Van Hussen, Angela


Marty Morantz

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



205.03 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marty Morantz 1881540.70%
Doug Eyolfson ** 1639835.50%
Ken St. George 655614.20%
Kristin Lauhn-Jensen 21784.70%
Steven Fletcher 19754.30%
Melissa Penner 1660.40%
Brian Ho 1400.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Doug Eyolfson 2453152.00%
Steven Fletcher ** 1840839.00%
Tom Paulley 28426.00%
Kevin Nichols 13762.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 Dr Bear
The polling numbers from the Prairies have the CPC down about six points relative to 2019. The Liberals are down about 1-2 points. Looks like much of that CPC loss went to the PPC. I’m not so sure this is going to be a CPC hold.
09/09/21 TS
This will be a close riding but its fortunes will follow the success or failure of the national campaign which, thus far, are quit positive and with the dislike of the Liberal's calling the election when they did I give this one to the CPC with about the same margin as last round.
08/09/21 George
Mainstreet from August shows a tie
21/08/21 R.O.
Essentially a rematch of the 2019 election as both current cpc mp Marty Morantz and former liberal mp Doug Eyolfson are running again minus former mp Steven Fletcher who had ran for the peoples party. both Trudeau and O’toole campaigned in the riding in first week of the campaign. Personally I feel western Canada still leans more conservative as things stand now and this riding stays cpc as they have an incumbent who’s well known and it had been cpc in the past for a number of years.
21/08/21 A.S.
A rematch of MP vs ex-MP. A win this narrow in an at-large ScheerCon circumstance when the thumb was on the CPC scale in the Prairies doesn't necessarily bode well for Morantz; neither does the fact that his winning share was less than 2 points above '15's losing share. *However*, he also had a right-vote-split situation in ex-MP Steven Fletcher running for PPC--though Fletcher ran a poor 5th and behind the Greens; plus given overall circumstances, it's possible that PPC this time could do better without the benefit of a Fletcher, so right-splitting isn't so off-the-table after all. (Nor is left-splitting, for that matter; so don't assume a clear-sailing takeback for Eyolfson, either.)
11/05/21 VotreChoix
This is a toss-up between the Liberals and Conservatives for the time being. Will have to see how it trends once the election is called.

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