Carlson, Kevin
	Falloon-Austin, Lori
	Holroyd, Arthur
	Lambrecht, Shirley
	Mazier, Dan
	McKenna, Donnan
Incumbent:
	Dan Mazier

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			87527 87374 41384 34499 50818.98 km² 1.70/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Dan Mazier	26103	64.30%
	Laverne Lewycky	5724	14.10%
	Cathy Scofield-Singh	5344	13.20%
	Kate Storey	2214	5.50%
	Frank Godon	711	1.80%
	Jenni Johnson	470	1.20%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Robert Sopuck **	19276	46.30%
	Ray Piché	12276	29.50%
	Laverne M. Lewycky	5097	12.30%
	Inky Mark	3357	8.10%
	Kate Storey	1592	3.80%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		22212	64.52%
		8540	24.80%
		2180	6.33%
		1470	4.27%
Other		27	0.08%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette    (85.61% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Brandon-Souris    (10.09% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Portage-Lisgar    (4.31% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	21/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Another case where Scheermania pricked a hole in the rural Justinmania bubble, leading to a 50-point advantage (and a bigger CPC jump than usual, as Inky Mark skewed down the '15 figure) and the NDP toeing into 2nd instead. Though unlike Brandon-Souris, DSRN *does* have a federal NDP history; indeed, its last such federal office holder, Laverne Lewycky, bore the standard in '15 and '19 as a glory-years throwback to a once-viable older breed of rural Prairie Dipperism. (Unfortunately, there's no hat trick to that late-life comeback; Lewycky died in August 2020.)
	13/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Dan Mazier is a lower profile first time mp but a long time conservative riding in rural manitoba so likely to stay cpc .
	11/05/21	VotreChoix 149.202.238.204
Rural riding in Manitoba, should be safe CPC