Election Prediction Project

Calgary Nose Hill
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:51

Constituency Profile


Ahmed, Khalis

Askin, Peggy

Dale-Walker, Jessica

Garvey, Stephen J

Hansell, Judson

Heather, Larry R.

Rempel Garner, Michelle

Scott, Kyle

Wang, Vanessa


Michelle Rempel

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



57.99 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Michelle Rempel ** 3858869.80%
Josephine Tsang 870315.70%
Patrick King 53049.60%
Jocelyn Grossé 15542.80%
Kelly Lorencz 10892.00%
Peggy Askin 710.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michelle Rempel ** 3276060.00%
Robert Prcic 1467126.90%
Bruce Kaufman 48368.90%
Laurie Scheer 13842.50%
Edward Gao 7271.30%
Faizan Butt 1840.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 590.14%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Calgary-Nose Hill
   (65.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Calgary Centre-North
   (34.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Wild Rose
   (0.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

23/08/21 A.S.
While MRG might have started as a charismatic young ‘moderate’ party star a decade ago, migrating to a more suburban riding seems to have made her more conventionally partisan; plus, whatever she signalled then has become more ‘normalized’ at large within the party (remember, she was 30ish then, and 40ish now: one of many geriatric-millennial pols w/common outlooks). She's still very effective as a face of the party; but these days she represents less the moderation of urban vs suburban Calgary, than that of N vs S Calgary (or in terms of '19, below vs above the 70% threshold)
17/08/21 R.O.
Michelle Rempel Garner has been mp of this riding since 2011 , fairly high profile tory mp in a long time cpc riding in suburban Calgary .
09/08/21 Thomas K
Michelle Rempel Garner is a very charismatic and outspoken moderate Conservative MP, who could even appeal to left-of-centre voters, not that she would need it in this safe suburban Calgary riding. She is a potential future leader of the CPC. Easy hold for her.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Suburban Calgary seat which has been safe for the Conservatives for decades. Don't see that changing this election.
08/05/21 arik
Despite what some may say following her marriage to an American veteran, it has certainly not affected her popularity too much, let alone how effective the Conservative vote is in Alberta. She also plays a prominent and very vocal voice in opposition.

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