|Edmonton Centre is probably the only riding in Alberta that the Liberals have a chance of winning in the next election. Former Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault is running to win back the seat, and this could help the Liberals. But in order to win here the Liberals will need 2 things: 1) Decent numbers in Alberta and 2) Win a large share of the non-Conservative vote. Will the Liberal-NDP vote get behind Boissonnault? That is the question.|
|Looking at this riding in the post-Landslide Annie era (i.e. the era during which Liberal fortunes in the riding weren't boosted by having a national heavyweight candidate), we see that the Conservatives won in 2008, 2011, and 2019. The Conservative-to-Liberal margin in Alberta in those elections was 65%-11%, 67%-9%, and 69%-14%. The Liberals won in 2015 when the margin province-wide was 60%-25%.|
As of today, the 338 Canada projection for Alberta is 48%-21%. Moreover, the most recent polls show even less favourable numbers for the Conservatives. If those numbers prove anywhere near accurate, this should be a Liberal pickup.
|This SHOULD be Liberal-leaning or at least a toss-up. But Trudeau is so toxic in the Prairies that I think his unpopularity will prevent any Liberal candidate from winning here. When Trudeau eventually leaves and is hopefully replaced by a centrist who treats Westerners as full Canadians (rather than as a cash cow for Quebec), I believe Edmonton-Centre will eagerly climb on board.|
|One of the few battlegrounds in Alberta and this election will likely be no different. With the Cons currently down in the polls from last time, a Tossup to begin with!|
|With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.|