Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09

Constituency Profile


Cumming, James

MacKenzie, Heather A.


James Cumming

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.39 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

James Cumming 2200641.40%
Randy Boissonnault ** 1752433.00%
Katherine Swampy 1095920.60%
Grad Murray 13942.60%
Paul Hookham 8051.50%
Donovan Eckstrom 2060.40%
Adil Pirbhai 1190.20%
Peggy Morton 790.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randy Boissonnault 1990237.20%
James Cumming 1870335.00%
Gil McGowan 1308424.50%
David Parker 14032.60%
Steven Stauffer 2570.50%
Kat Yaki 1630.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2970.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton Centre
   (96.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (3.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

01/08/20 Marco Ricci
Edmonton Centre is probably the only riding in Alberta that the Liberals have a chance of winning in the next election. Former Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault is running to win back the seat, and this could help the Liberals. But in order to win here the Liberals will need 2 things: 1) Decent numbers in Alberta and 2) Win a large share of the non-Conservative vote. Will the Liberal-NDP vote get behind Boissonnault? That is the question.
06/07/20 Steve Smith
Looking at this riding in the post-Landslide Annie era (i.e. the era during which Liberal fortunes in the riding weren't boosted by having a national heavyweight candidate), we see that the Conservatives won in 2008, 2011, and 2019. The Conservative-to-Liberal margin in Alberta in those elections was 65%-11%, 67%-9%, and 69%-14%. The Liberals won in 2015 when the margin province-wide was 60%-25%.
As of today, the 338 Canada projection for Alberta is 48%-21%. Moreover, the most recent polls show even less favourable numbers for the Conservatives. If those numbers prove anywhere near accurate, this should be a Liberal pickup.
30/06/21 Stevo
This SHOULD be Liberal-leaning or at least a toss-up. But Trudeau is so toxic in the Prairies that I think his unpopularity will prevent any Liberal candidate from winning here. When Trudeau eventually leaves and is hopefully replaced by a centrist who treats Westerners as full Canadians (rather than as a cash cow for Quebec), I believe Edmonton-Centre will eagerly climb on board.
28/06/21 Lolitha
One of the few battlegrounds in Alberta and this election will likely be no different. With the Cons currently down in the polls from last time, a Tossup to begin with!
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.

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