Election Prediction Project

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:06:26

Constituency Profile


Bruised Head, Diandra

Heidinger, Brodie

Motz, Glen

Shoesmith, Geoff

Stenger, Jocelyn

Wilson, Hannah


Glen Motz

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



29559.04 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Glen Motz ** 4204579.20%
Elizabeth Thomson 46398.70%
Harris Kirshenbaum 35286.60%
Andrew Nelson 13502.50%
Shannon Hawthorne 12032.30%
Dave Phillips 3370.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jim Hillyer ** 3484968.80%
Glen Allan 908517.90%
Erin Weir 48979.70%
Brent Smith 13192.60%
John Clayton Turner 5001.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2880.77%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Medicine Hat
   (76.52% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (18.93% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 R.O.
Glen Motz was first elected in a 2016 by election in what has been a long time conservative riding in southern alberta. And likely to stay cpc.
23/08/21 A.S.
The Blood reserve's the only blip in the monolith. Even within urban Medicine Hat, the weakest CPC poll performance this time was low 50s.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural Alberta seat so safe CPC for now unless Mavericks/PPC start making momentum.
05/05/21 JW
Vancouver East is arguably the most reliably NDP riding in the country. Considering:
- It is the only riding in Canada that has consistently elected NDP members since 1997.
- It returned NDP or CCF members in 25 of the 27 federal elections since its creation in 1935.
- Its component provincial ridings, Vancouver-Hastings and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, both consistently returned NDP MLA since their creation in 1991 (being the only 2 ridings in the province withholding the Liberal wipeout in the 2001), and their predecessor riding Vancouver East has returned NDP and CCF MLAs in all but one election since its creation in 1933.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster