Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Granville
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-09 22:34:55

Constituency Profile


Noormohamed, Taleeb


Jody Wilson-Raybould

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



22.39 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jody Wilson-Raybould ** 1726532.60%
Taleeb Noormohamed 1408826.60%
Zach Segal 1160521.90%
Yvonne Hanson 696013.10%
Louise Boutin 26835.10%
Naomi Chocyk 4310.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jody Wilson-Raybould 2364343.90%
Mira Oreck 1446226.90%
Erinn Broshko 1402826.10%
Michael Barkusky 16913.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3740.86%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Centre
   (34.83% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Vancouver South
   (27.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Vancouver Quadra
   (19.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Vancouver Kingsway
   (18.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/07/20 Thomas K
Sadly, it is likely the Liberals will pick this up again. The Liberal candidate has a resume that would appeal to the posh Shaugnessy elite of this riding.
10/07/20 Palmer
Even with JWR in the race, the Liberal candidate, Taleeb, would have likely won given the current climate. Now this makes it a foregone conclusion. He is an impressive candidate and not to be underestimated with a good track record and a solid CV. I didn’t vote for him last time (supported JWR) but took a long look at him and was quite impressed. He’ll have my vote this time and would have last time too, but for Trudeau.
09/07/20 Steve Smith
With Jody Wilson-Raybould's announcement that she won't seek re-election, the Liberals become the clear favourite here.
09/07/20 Chris N
Wilson-Raybold has announced she is not running in the next election. This leaves a big opening for the Liberals and Conservatives to pick up this vacant seat. In the absence of an independent candidate to replace JWR, I can't help but wonder if Wilson-Raybold could endorse the Green or NDP candidate as a final swipe at the Liberals.
09/07/20 Laurence Putnam
With JWR out, her vote should coalesce back around her former party again. Greens are in disarray, the riding is too wealthy for the NDP to be a viable option and without enough of a left wing split the Conservatives will be unlikely to make up the difference. Almost certainly a Liberal gain.
09/07/20 Marco Ricci
Jody Wilson-Raybould announced that she will not run in the next election:
The Liberals are probably now favoured to win back this seat.
08/07/20 Jc
And with Raybould now announcing she's not running this is an easy Liberal pickup.
08/07/20 ME
JWR is not standing again and thus the riding will go back to the Liberals
ï»؟05/07 Pun Dit!
I supported JwR in the last election as I was unhappy with the Trudeau government and thought she might end up holding influence in a minority parliament. Despite the SNC she only won by 3% when her popularity was at height. Since the election she has been invisible from the riding, spending most of her time on the Island. Her national profile may be interesting to the media but The pulse on the ground is that she has not been a presence in the community, at all. On the other hand it seems that the Liberal campaign and Candidate have been calling voters, doing outreach and the Trudeau government has actually been beneficial to many in Granville who have received the CERB or CeWS and of course the vaccines have been a great boon. So I think that while it may be close, a hard working campaign by a strong liberal candidate and a much better sentiment towards the Libs is more than likely enough to deliver Granville to the Liberals. If she does not run; then this should be an easy liberal win based on the historical tendency of the riding.
02/07/21 Stevo
Independent MPs in Canada have limited shelf lives. Those who manage to win once or even twice (for example John Nunziata and André Arthur, respectively) are eventually swept aside. I think Chuck Cadman too would have lost his re-election bid as an independent had he lived to run in 2006. Voters rarely reward honesty and integrity, and I'm inclined to think JWR will follow the same path to defeat as prior independent MPs. This seat is a complete toss-up. It is conceiveable that even the Conservatives could win through a 4-way split on the left.
11/06/21 Libby Burgudy
JWR won this seat with just over 32% of the vote last time -- which is nothing. With a level of overall support that low, she is, despite her margin of victory, one of the most marginal MPs: even if she wins back every single voter she had last time, if a relatively small number of votes shift between the other parties, she could easily find herself underwater.
With that in mind, in a roundabout sort of way I feel like JWR is most vulnerable to the Conservatives. I don't think the Conservatives will win this seat, but if they do well, they'll deny the Liberals an opportunity to mop up enough votes to defeat her. And if they do poorly, the Liberals may collect enough votes to win.
Why not the Liberals? Well, if we get the mooted late-summer/autumn election, it certainly feels like the Liberals intend to bring their renewed focus on Indigenous reconciliation to the fore, especially in regions like the Lower Mainland, where it plays quite well. But this is an argument which won't work against JWR: she's perfectly positioned to counter so many of these arguments, to a point that Liberals talking about the issue at all arguably benefits her. It's still a winning issue at the regional level, but in Granville it plays right into her hands.
With all this in mind, I'm not making a confident prediction, but I am giving her the benefit of the doubt: she's a strong incumbent, she's uniquely suited to these specific electoral circumstances, and -- if she runs -- Puglaas certainly has the inside track.

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