Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-06-01 02:55:00

Constituency Profile



Berthier, Adrien

Despatie, Marc

Farrow, David

Laface, Jason

Popescu, J. David

Pressey, Sheldon

Robinson, David

West, Jamie

Jamie West

Population (2016):

Population (2011):80840

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

13,296 39.35%
4,663 13.80%
14,274 42.24%
1,212 3.59%
OTHERS 348 1.03%
Total Transposed 33,793
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Paul Lefebvre **
Beth Mairs
Pierre St-Amant
Bill Crumplin
Sean Paterson
Chanel Lalonde
Charlene Sylvestre
J. David Popescu

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Paul Lefebvre
Paul Loewenberg
Fred Slade
David Robinson
Jean-Raymond Audet
Elizabeth Rowley
J. David Popescu


01/06/2022 NJam101
Although I visit Sudbury a lot and know the city quite well, this is one I had to think about. I'm pretty sure that Jamie West will be re-elected although Liberal candidate David Farrow may come close. I just don't think that enough Sudburians will be going back to voting Liberal at this time. Give it another four years and it will be much more likely.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The riding has bounced back and forth between the Liberals and NDP over the past few yrs. The NDP are the incumbents now and I think they will hold on here on June 2.
30/05/2022 seasaw
I think this is one of the few ridings that the Liberals will pick up on Thursday. It will be close but at the end of the day, the Liberals will come on top, as one of the previous posters correctly observed, this riding isn’t like Nickel Belt, the Liberals have always been strong in this riding.
27/05/2022 R.O.
The ndp first won this riding in 2014 a year they weren’t doing nearly as well as 2018 so it does seem to have a stronger ndp base. True it had been liberal for a number of years prior but there campaign up north is so bad this year its becoming very difficult to see them gaining much of anything. Is 2 ridings without a liberal candidate and a couple others with last minute unknown candidates and little evidence Del Duca has made much of a connection with Northern voters so far. Hasn’t been a pc riding for years but when there in power seem to do better here so could still post a better than expected result but think riding will stay ndp and Jaime West will hold it.
Jamie West now has the lead in local polling and thus this riding is leaning NDP
Editor's Note: This poster has consistently mislabelled modeling by 338canada.com as local polling, which is not the case.
19/05/2022 CD
Sudbury doesn't have the same tendencies as next door Nickel Belt. This will be Liberal unless the NDP starts polling in the high 20s and challenging for 2nd province-wide.
15/05/2022 Richtheo007
West should easily hold this riding. He has been quite effective and visible in the past 4 years. He is running against 2 relatively unknowns and he is certainly winning the lawn sign battle.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
NDP numbers in the North are strong enough that popular MPP Jamie West should be able to hold on for a second term.
23/04/22 AD
No change here. Polling suggests that NDP will maintain there hold and LPO might take second place, if anyone cares. They shouldn't though, the end result is the same no matter what, West will be re-elected.
21/04/22 A.S.
One can tell from past results how Sudbury can turn on a dime when it comes to vulnerability vs invulnerability--though on the face of things, Jamie West more than doubling his nearest opposition in '18 suggests he'd have no problem in '22. Any vulnerability would hinge upon Sudbury's "natural condition" being more Liberal than NDP (i.e. less blue-collar, more service-town professional-class than the Nickel Belt which surrounds it)--though I'm not sure whether David Farrow's the kind of person who'd turn the seat except in an all-in Liberal bandwagon. And following the Laurentian crisis, forget about the Tories--and besides, unlike in Nickel Belt, the federal Cons remained a 3rd-place proposition in Sudbury in '21.
18/04/22 LFC Ottawa
The NDP are still strong at the provincial level. I think we will see a stronger PCPO number than normal, but a NDP win by say 12 points. Fast forward to the next federal election, and this is the seat I will be watching to be the surprise of the night when Pollievre wins turns this seat blue for the first time ever.
15/03/22 R.O.
Type of riding the ndp should be able to hold onto , it has voted ndp the last 2 provincial elections 2014 and 2018 although lost it in a 2015 by election when former ndp mp ran as a liberal. David Farrow new liberal candidate and Jaime West is running again for ndp after gaining some profile as mpp. Marc Despatie new pc candidate , typically not a factor but generated some better results here in past years when they were in power which makes it tougher to predict how they?¢â‚¬â„¢ll do this year. Riding also dealing with the Laurentian University issue which could also affect the outcome here.
26/09/21 Chris N
Sudbury is notorious for being a tricky riding to predict. I would give the advantage to the NDP but anything can happen in eight months.
02/06/21 IAMWOMAN
Jamie West has demonstrated himself to be a very capable MPP, in part because he works so closely with some of the best ?veterans? like France G?linas in Nickel Belt. It will be close, as the Liberals are generally polling better, but the effects of the PCs will cause much bitterness in the riding. The PC vote will collapse, and everything will be redistributed, but the NDP will overcome for another round at least.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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