Sudbury

	Berthier, Adrien
	Despatie, Marc
	Farrow, David
	Laface, Jason
	Popescu, J. David
	Pressey, Sheldon
	Robinson, David
	West, Jamie

Incumbent:

		Jamie West
Population (2016):
Population (2011):			80840
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		JAMIE WEST
		17,386	48.07%
		TROY CROWDER
		8,405	23.24%
		GLENN THIBEAULT *
		8,108	22.42%
		DAVID ROBINSON
		1,504	4.16%
		MILA CHAVEZ WONG
		284	0.79%
		JAMES WENDLER
		212	0.59%
		DAVID SYLVESTRE
		186	0.51%
		J. DAVID POPESCU
		82	0.23%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		13,296	39.35%
		4,663	13.80%
		14,274	42.24%
		1,212	3.59%
	OTHERS	348	1.03%
	Total Transposed		33,793
Component Riding(s)
	Sudbury (100.00% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Paul Lefebvre **
		19,643	40.90%
		Beth Mairs
		13,885	28.90%
		Pierre St-Amant
		9,864	20.60%
		Bill Crumplin
		3,225	6.70%
		Sean Paterson
		873	1.80%
		Chanel Lalonde
		282	0.60%
		Charlene Sylvestre
		135	0.30%
		J. David Popescu
		70	0.10%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Paul Lefebvre
		23,534	47.40%
		Paul Loewenberg
		13,793	27.80%
		Fred Slade
		10,473	21.10%
		David Robinson
		1,509	3.00%
		Jean-Raymond Audet
		134	0.30%
		Elizabeth Rowley
		102	0.20%
		J. David Popescu
		84	0.20%

	01/06/2022	NJam101 216.167.228.27
Although I visit Sudbury a lot and know the city quite well, this is one I had to think about. I'm pretty sure that Jamie West will be re-elected although Liberal candidate David Farrow may come close. I just don't think that enough Sudburians will be going back to voting Liberal at this time. Give it another four years and it will be much more likely.
	30/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
The riding has bounced back and forth between the Liberals and NDP over the past few yrs. The NDP are the incumbents now and I think they will hold on here on June 2.
	30/05/2022	seasaw 99.225.210.37
I think this is one of the few ridings that the Liberals will pick up on Thursday. It will be close but at the end of the day, the Liberals will come on top, as one of the previous posters correctly observed, this riding isn’t like Nickel Belt, the Liberals have always been strong in this riding.
	27/05/2022	R.O. 24.146.13.249
The ndp first won this riding in 2014 a year they weren’t doing nearly as well as 2018 so it does seem to have a stronger ndp base. True it had been liberal for a number of years prior but there campaign up north is so bad this year its becoming very difficult to see them gaining much of anything. Is 2 ridings without a liberal candidate and a couple others with last minute unknown candidates and little evidence Del Duca has made much of a connection with Northern voters so far. Hasn’t been a pc riding for years but when there in power seem to do better here so could still post a better than expected result but think riding will stay ndp and Jaime West will hold it.
	21/05/2022	69.165.143.166
Jamie West now has the lead in local polling and thus this riding is leaning NDP Editor's Note: This poster has consistently mislabelled modeling by 338canada.com as local polling, which is not the case.
	19/05/2022	CD 66.234.34.46
Sudbury doesn't have the same tendencies as next door Nickel Belt. This will be Liberal unless the NDP starts polling in the high 20s and challenging for 2nd province-wide.
	15/05/2022	Richtheo007 63.135.6.1
West should easily hold this riding. He has been quite effective and visible in the past 4 years. He is running against 2 relatively unknowns and he is certainly winning the lawn sign battle.
	28/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
NDP numbers in the North are strong enough that popular MPP Jamie West should be able to hold on for a second term.
	23/04/22	AD 198.84.175.242
No change here. Polling suggests that NDP will maintain there hold and LPO might take second place, if anyone cares. They shouldn't though, the end result is the same no matter what, West will be re-elected.
	21/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
One can tell from past results how Sudbury can turn on a dime when it comes to vulnerability vs invulnerability--though on the face of things, Jamie West more than doubling his nearest opposition in '18 suggests he'd have no problem in '22. Any vulnerability would hinge upon Sudbury's "natural condition" being more Liberal than NDP (i.e. less blue-collar, more service-town professional-class than the Nickel Belt which surrounds it)--though I'm not sure whether David Farrow's the kind of person who'd turn the seat except in an all-in Liberal bandwagon. And following the Laurentian crisis, forget about the Tories--and besides, unlike in Nickel Belt, the federal Cons remained a 3rd-place proposition in Sudbury in '21.
	18/04/22	LFC Ottawa 174.114.107.158
The NDP are still strong at the provincial level. I think we will see a stronger PCPO number than normal, but a NDP win by say 12 points. Fast forward to the next federal election, and this is the seat I will be watching to be the surprise of the night when Pollievre wins turns this seat blue for the first time ever.
	15/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Type of riding the ndp should be able to hold onto , it has voted ndp the last 2 provincial elections 2014 and 2018 although lost it in a 2015 by election when former ndp mp ran as a liberal. David Farrow new liberal candidate and Jaime West is running again for ndp after gaining some profile as mpp. Marc Despatie new pc candidate , typically not a factor but generated some better results here in past years when they were in power which makes it tougher to predict how they?¢â‚¬â„¢ll do this year. Riding also dealing with the Laurentian University issue which could also affect the outcome here.
	26/09/21	Chris N 99.230.64.148
Sudbury is notorious for being a tricky riding to predict. I would give the advantage to the NDP but anything can happen in eight months.
	02/06/21	IAMWOMAN 174.95.86.112
Jamie West has demonstrated himself to be a very capable MPP, in part because he works so closely with some of the best ?veterans? like France G?linas in Nickel Belt. It will be close, as the Liberals are generally polling better, but the effects of the PCs will cause much bitterness in the riding. The PC vote will collapse, and everything will be redistributed, but the NDP will overcome for another round at least.