Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:31:00

Constituency Profile



Arner, Eric

Barrett, Rob

Criger, Dan

Holland, Kevin

Jones, Kenneth

Monteith-Farrell, Judith

Tommasini, David

Judith Monteith-Farrell

Population (2016):

Population (2011):75920

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,176 52.98%
3,779 13.19%
8,052 28.11%
964 3.37%
OTHERS 676 2.36%
Total Transposed 28,647
      Component Riding(s)

Thunder Bay-Atikokan
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marcus Powlowski
Linda Rydholm
Yuk-Sem Won
Amanda Moddejonge
Andrew Hartnell

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Don Rusnak
John Rafferty **
Moe Comuzzi
Christy Radbourne


01/06/2022 NJam101
I agree that Rob Barrett will win. The Liberal numbers here were pretty high in 2018 considering how poorly the party performed overall in the province. I realize that it's not Bill Mauro running who was a cabinet minister and he's now mayor of T-Bay. NDP support has been falling so it will definitely benefit the Liberal candidate here. The PC vote will also likely increase and Kevin Holland will likely finish in second and may even make it close.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The Liberals held this seat for a number of years before 2018 and the NDP won here by 81 votes. Here in 2022 I think the Liberals will win the seat back.
31/05/2022 R.O.
Noticed there was a mainstreet riding poll released for this riding , there numbers were 37 liberal Rob Barrett , 29 pc Kevin Holland , 24 ndp Judith Monteith Farrell and 3 green. But hard to believe the ndp could go from first to third here especially with an incumbent running for re election. Although federal ndp did come in third here last time but that was a close 3 way race , cpc came second as they’ve been growing support in riding lately so perhaps pc’s have tapped into some of those same voters provincially. https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/30/riding-poll-ndp-incumbent-might-be-a-one-term-mpp-in-thunder-bay-atikokan/
28/05/2022 CD
As NDP continues to look weaker than 2018 province-wide, it's nearly impossible for them to hold onto this one where they scraped by 4 years ago
25/05/2022 R.O.
This riding looked more promising for the liberals early on but they were unable to get the candidate they wanted as Bill Mauro decided to not run and they nominated Robert Barrett instead a low profile candidate with a thin political resume. Horwath was also forced to cancel her trip to Thunder Bay due to her covid test being positive and unclear if she still plans to visit the city in person before election day. Some of the prediction sites show this as liberal but skeptical there doing well enough up north to gain anything new this election so an ndp hold is appearing more likely. But same issue as other ridings the 2018 result was based on liberals having a high profile mpp which is not the case this election.
20/05/2022 CD
The NDP will not be able to hold onto this riding. They start with a minor lead, and have already lost it given the Liberal revival in polling province-wide.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Liberals are starting from behind, having not nominated a candidate yet (although Yes Employment Services Rob Barrett seems to be the choice). Judith Monteith-Farrell hasn't been the most high-profile MPP, but is a solid worker and the NDP needs to hold on to seats like this and will put the resources in to keep their Northwestern toehold. I wouldn't count out the PCs either. Likely a close three-way race.
28/04/22 R.O.
According to Wikipedia a liberal candidate is about to be nominated and its someone named Robert Barrett. But a search on google brings up virtually nothing on this person so they cannot be high profile or ran previously in the riding. Not sure this will be enough to take the seat back from the ndp, especially with Del Duca as leader who isn’t well known up north, Horwath is much better known in northern Ontario. Sure it was very close last time but Bill Mauro was well known and now mayor of Thunder Bay.
26/04/22 JB
It’s almost May, and the Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate here, which I find very odd. Bill Mauro has chosen to stick with municipal politics.
Monteith-Farrell is not the highest profile NDP MPP, but she still has the incumbency advantage and she’s previously proven that she can get the vote out. Depending on when and who they nominate, it might be too late for the Liberals. I don’t anticipate a PC breakthrough here yet.
Both Thunder Bay ridings are definitely up for grabs.
23/04/22 AD
With such a tight margin last election and such a bad time for the Liberal Party, it's easy to see them take back this seat, having been only a small share of votes short before.
21/04/22 A.S.
Frankly, given the federal results for TB-Rainy River together w/Doug Ford's seeming "northern strategy" (with Greg Rickford next door providing ballast), I wouldn't look upon this in strict, simple NDP/Lib binary terms at all, whatever the '18 result. Though the mayor of Conmee might not be the highest-echelon way for the PCs to secure this seat--and the fact that the provincial seat only goes as far as Atikokan also doesn't help matters; then again, within these present boundaries *federally*, the Canadian Alliance came within 7 points of winning in 2000 and united-right finished first and ahead of the 40% threshold. And that's compared to '21's result within current federal boundaries, when less than 6 points separated the 3 major parties and united-right nosed ahead by less than 2 points--though even that latter united-right figure didn't match what Bill Mauro got in '18; then again, Mauro had incumbent advantage in '18, which the Libs in '22 don't. *That's* where vulnerabilities happen.
14/04/22 Cal
Not a high profile incumbent but don’t let that fool you. A good constituency office good outreach for four years an organized and well funded campaign this won’t be as close as last time.
09/04/22 J.F. Breton
Avec la remont?©e des Lib?©raux, des circonscriptions traditionnellement lib?©rales reviendront dans le giron, particuli?¨rement ?  Toronto, dans l'Est et dans le Nord. Thunder Bay-Atikokan fait partie de celles-l? . Perdue par une tr?¨s mince avance n?©o-d?©mocrate aux derni?¨res ?©lections, elle basculera du c?´t?© lib?©ral cette fois-ci.
09/03/22 Finn
This riding was won by the NDP in 2018 by just 81 votes, in a massive upset. Unless the Liberals are expected to have an equally bad night as they did in 2018 - which they are not - then the Liberals should be able to pick this up easily.
25/02/22 R.O.
The liberals have yet to nominate a candidate here , suppose they were waiting to see what former mpp Bill Mauro did he?˘â‚¬â„˘s now mayor of Thunder Bay and has decided against running again provincially so unclear who they will run here. pc?˘â‚¬â„˘s have a new candidate Kevin Holland after Moe Comuzzi left a few months back. Judith Monteith Farrell has been mpp since 2018 but not really well known at queens park although as an incumbent in northern Ontario she?˘â‚¬â„˘d have somewhat of an advantage over a field of new candidates.
24/01/22 Reporter
The PC candidate for Thunder Bay - Atikokan is Kevin Holland, who was nominated by the party in August. Maureen Comuzzi, who you are listing, withdrew her candidacy earlier in the summer.
06/07/21 Jonathan
Depending on the liberal candidate this is a clear pickup for the liberals. Last election Bill Mauro had one of the best showings for the party and this would have been an easy win if not for the weight of Kathleen Wynne saying the party was going to lose the election a week before election day. That resulted in the union support going all to the NDP to try and stop the conservatives. If Mauro were to run again this is an easy liberal pickup against an NDP candidate with not a lot to show for her time in office.
19/06/21 EP
The Liberals may or may not have a come back, may or may not be stuck at third place, but I don't think any objective observers would predict them to be stuck at 8 seats. Even in worst case scenario, they are going to pick up a handful. Mauro, now the mayor, managed to secure the second highest percentage among all the defeated Liberals. This ought to be a must win for them if they are to win even 15 or 20 seats.
03/06/21 JBee
This is my home riding, and it's way too early to call. Monteith-Farrell barely defeated a Liberal incumbent by 81 votes in 2018, but she does have the incumbent advantage. It all depends on who the Liberals nominate, and if they're carrying momentum into election day. This riding could flop either way.

Navigate to Ontario 2022 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2022 | www.electionprediction.org | Email Webmaster