Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Prediction Changed
2022-05-08 23:53:00

Constituency Profile



Ch'Ng, Shelby

Cherry, Adam

Hufnagel, Stephen

Mackinnon, Tracey Allison

Suutari, Katherine

Vaugeois, Lise

Wolff, Andy

You, Peng

Michael Gravelle

Population (2016):

Population (2011):70475

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,519 55.97%
1,991 7.18%
8,169 29.46%
997 3.60%
OTHERS 1,049 3.78%
Total Transposed 27,725
      Component Riding(s)

Thunder Bay-Superior North
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Patty Hajdu **
Frank Pullia
Anna Betty Achneepineskum
Bruce Hyer
Youssef Khanjari
Alexander Vodden

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Patty Hajdu
Andrew Foulds
Richard Harvey
Bruce Hyer **
Robert Skaf


01/06/2022 NJam101
This may be the only riding where the NDP has the potential to pick up a seat. And it could be a three-way close race if the PC vote increases. The towns outside T-Bay will likely vote heavily NDP. I'm told that the Liberal candidate who is a T-Bay city councillor is not very popular in the city and may cause a number of normally Liberal voters to consider other candidates. So I'm predicting that Lise Vaugeois will win again.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Michael Gravelle was the MPP here since 1995 but is not running again this time. Be interesting to see if this is a Liberal seat or a Gravelle seat. I think it will be a little of both but I predict the Liberals to win here on June 2.
31/05/2022 Jerry Mander
I don't understand this Liberal call at all. If you're in this riding, it's literally a sea of orange signs. There's pockets of blue signs in the typical, wealthier neighbourhoods, and some Conservative and Liberal signs in public places and in advertisements, but the signs and word of mouth are very much in favour of the NDP. It's really very shocking how I haven't seen any real Liberal campaign at all. Their candidate is a good one but other than her, is anybody even out there? I mean, when I returned to town I literally saw zero Liberal signs. And there's not many more than that now. It feels like they may have decided to give up this seat and have moved resources elsewhere, is that possible?
Unless the Liberals pull a lot of votes away from them, which they could because the previous MPP here was a very popular Liberal who held the seat for a long time, the NDP should take both of these seats (even easier to do in the other TB riding as they already hold that one). On the other hand, if the Liberal vote does not completely collapse and they prevent enough votes from going orange to let the PC take this riding, it still obviously isn't going Liberal... so I have no idea why this Liberal call still stands. The wheels are falling off the Liberals in this riding for sure, and on top of that there's a ton of anti-Trudeau sentiment that's hurting the Ontario party.
My educated guess (judgement may be clouded by personal desires) is that this seat probably goes NDP. This is because the PC's don't have a ton of love here for myriad reasons old and new, plus their candidate Peng You is a mostly unpopular city councilor who is getting a lot of bad word of mouth for refusing to debate his opponents. But I can see this seat going PC as well. It all depends on how the vote breaks on the day, especially those strategic "who will beat the Conservatives" voters.
Mark my words though, this seat will not be going Liberal. Unless they got a ton of early voters, they're looking at third place and it might not even be that close.
Sorry for being long-winded. Just confused and, as a long-time NDP supporter and voter I'm hoping for a breakthrough here :-)
09/05/2022 JB
Now that the Liberals have nominated somebody, I'm calling this for the NDP.
The Liberal candidate is a polarizing city councillor who doesn't even reside in this riding. TB-SN covers a vast area, as opposed to the tiny Northwood neighbourhood in TB-A, where she's used to campaigning for a thousand votes. You can't take the rural north shore portion of the riding for granted either, as it consistently voted NDP when it was previously known as Lake Nipigon.
Gravelle understood this riding when it was first created in 1995, and he knew how to campaign and win using that information. Like I've said before, this was his individual riding, and not necessarily a Liberal one.
The fact that the PC candidate is another city councillor will make things a little interesting, as he was the #1 vote-getter across the entire city in the last municipal election. The PC vote will likely increase at the expense of the Liberals since both are currently on city council and well-known to the urban populace, but this riding will not go PC.
If the NDP vote can hold, they will snatch this riding.
06/05/2022 SarahMitts
Thankfully, the networks will give this riding a lot of attention on air during election night as it is effectively the last Liberal seat in Northern Ontario and the Liberals lost their tenured candidate on short notice. This is such a clear example of the Liberals biggest issue in 2022: being unable to find experienced candidates who are willing to put in the hard work of campaigning for the team with no guarantee of winning. If the PC candidate, Councillor Peng You, can siphon off blue Liberals, or if the Liberal base does not show up, the obituary will read that the Ontario Liberal Party is dead in Northern Ontario and the NDP will win this seat.
06/05/2022 seasaw
Incumbent or no incumbent, this is one of the safest Liberal seats in the province. Liberal hold
05/05/2022 R.O.
The new liberal candidate is Shelby Chng who is also a city councillor in Thunder Bay. Still see this riding being a close race between the liberals and ndp as Gravelles personal brand was so strong. The riding includes a large rural portion of smaller communities along the highway 11/17 areas into small towns like Geraldton. So having a city councillor helps in Thunder Bay but still a lot of voters in other places in this riding.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Hard to predict this one with no Liberal candidate, but I don't think the Liberals will let it go easily. Interesting to see first-term councillor Peng You running for the PCs, he might make it interesting. I'm saying Liberal for now since they'll likely run a fairly strong candidate to keep this seat red.
26/04/22 JB
Michael Gravelle announced yesterday that he will not be seeking re-election due to health issues. TB-SN was more of a Gravelle riding than a Liberal one. He was able to consistently win since 1995, even when the provincial Liberal numbers were in the basement.
I’d move this over to the TCTC column now, possibly favouring the NDP, given the results from the last election. Unless the Liberals can nominate another very high-profile candidate, they’re going to have a very steep, uphill battle at this late in the game.
Both Thunder Bay ridings are definitely up for grabs.
25/04/22 ME
Thunder Bay-Superipr North Liberal MPP Michael Gravelle packed it in today. There goes the Dean of the Liberal caucus
25/04/22 KXS
Gravelle is out for health reasons. I think this is a 3-way race under the current political climate.
25/04/22 R.O.
Michael Gravelle just announced his retirement due to health issues so this riding will be an open race. Its unclear who the liberals plan to run in either Thunder Bay riding at this point . this riding was a fairly close race with the ndp last election and likely they’ll focus on it again this year. Its never really been a strong riding for the pc’s in recent elections although there candidate is Peng You who is a city councillor in Thunder Bay .
21/04/22 A.S.
Even without Gravelle, this would be the weaker TB prospect for the PCs--though it's not like the FordCons wouldn't try, particularly through piggybacking off Ring of Fire economic promise in the deepest N-of-Superior hinterland; and nominating TB councillor and Tai Chi figurehead Peng You to that viable end. Maybe, perhaps, Gravelle will win with a *lower* share than in '18--*there's* something nobody'd anticipate...
15/03/22 R.O.
Mike Gravelle has been mpp of this riding since 1995. If he really runs again likely he?€™ll hold the riding but likely to retire in the next couple years which could trigger a by election here which would be kind of interesting. Peng You is the new pc candidate and Lise Vaugeois is running for the ndp again she came in a close second last time.
06/07/21 Jonathan
Should be an easy liberal hold. Without Wynne at the head of the party and without all the union support going behind the ndp this time around this one is a foregone conclusion. Also far weaker conservative support in this Thunder Bay riding which will help the longtime incumbent.
03/06/21 JBee
Gravelle still managed to win here in 2018 when the provincial Liberal vote tanked, and he'll win again by a much larger margin.
20/05/21 Williams_Theo
Great to see this site back up and running.
I was born & raised in this riding before moving away. 2018 was the fight of Michael Gravelle's career and he was still able to hang on by 2.7%. That year proved that this seat is Gravelle's as long as he wants it. Given that he will be running again, OLP is doing better in the polls, and his opponents do not stack up well against him, this one will be an easy hold.

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