Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-22 13:14:00

Constituency Profile



Bisson, Gilles

Farrell, David

Lockhard, Elizabeth

Pirie, George

Sadiq, Nadia

Gilles Bisson

Population (2016):

Population (2011):41785

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

2,994 20.49%
4,579 31.34%
6,718 45.98%
289 1.97%
OTHERS 32 0.22%
Total Transposed 14,612
      Component Riding(s)

Timmins-James Bay
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Charlie Angus **
Kraymr Grenke
Michelle Boileau
Max Kennedy
Renaud Roy

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Charlie Angus **
Todd Lever
John P. Curley
Max Kennedy


01/06/2022 NJam101
I have lived in Timmins all of my life and I'm going to predict that George Pirie will win. I never thought I'd ever see Timmins electing a PC candidate this soon after that party being so unpopular here since the 1990s. But the PCs have become very moderate. Also having no Liberal candidate actually helps the PCs here as the business community in Timmins tends to have many Liberal supporters who are supporting Pirie this time.
I'm not saying that Bisson can't win but it doesn't look good for him. He has been campaigning very hard with members of his family and I have noticed a lot more of his signs popping up and especially in lower income neighbourhoods. But the most common thing you hear around town is that people feel that's it worth taking a chance with Pirie as MPP since he will be on the side of government and that Ford made funding promises specifically to Timmins. I'm thinking that NDP support being down provincially and a not very exciting NDP provincial campaign both led to Bisson being less competitive in Timmins and pulled him down enough to not be able to win just on his name.
My prediction:
Pirie: 48%
Bisson 39%
My personal view is that Bisson is a far better person to be our MPP and his constituency work will really be missed. I do hope he runs for mayor if he loses.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I'd almost go out on a limb and predict this riding for the PC's given their candidates is the mayor of Timmins and there is no Liberal candidate in this election. Still the NDP MPP here has been MPP since the 90's and will win again on June 2.
27/05/2022 R.O.
Timmins somewhat of an odd race as the riding has so few voters and no liberal candidate this year. Not clear what affect the lack of a liberal would have as this is Timmins not the 416 so some of those voters could just as easily go pc than ndp. I also cant help but wonder if Gilles Bisson has tried to stay on too long , 1990 was a long time ago. He is a very well known mpp but in the last election there was some very well known liberals who lost there seats in ridings they had held for decades. I dont have much doubt George Pirie would win this riding this election if there was no incumbent similar to how the pcs won Sault Ste Marie a few years ago. But likely to be won by a small margin by whichever of the 2 main candidates wins it.
23/05/2022 jeff316
Gilles's hold on Timmins is all but done. His election machine is wheezing, for the first time lacking volunteers, and locally, while people like him, the word on the ground is that it might be worth trying someone in government this time. This is the reverse of "who would you like to have a beer with?" political question - the answer in Timmins is 100% Gilles, but by now everyone has had a beer with Gilles. Opponents like to belittle Gilles but his achievements are nothing to sneeze at - the local mining electrician rode the 1990 Rae election and then held on through subsequent waves to represent Timmins for 35 years with some of the province's best electoral results. His constituency work is unrivalled, and likely once he loses many residents will see just how much his office did for individuals. But that's not enough to win anymore. The questions are: 1) Will Pirie win 50% on his first attempt? 2) Will they do a swip-swap that sees Gilles turn around and run for mayor?
21/05/2022 ME
Bisson is now leading in the local polls...this riding is now leaning NDP
Editor's Note: This poster has consistently mislabelled modeling by 338canada.com as local polling, which is not the case.
17/05/2022 NJam101
I live in Timmins and I would say that the PC candidate and current mayor George Pirie is leading in support.
Timmins is a city riding encompassing the boundaries of the City of Timmins. This has drastically changed compared to the old Timmins-James Bay where things differed by community and campaigning in it was difficult due to distances. Now it's very easy with little travel required and the Premier and other party leaders can drop in and campaign more efficiently.
George Pirie received 63.92% of the votes in our 2018 municipal mayoral election. He defeated an incumbent who had become quite unpopular. Pirie is not particularly popular but he made quick connections with Doug Ford as a strategy. The big thing now is whether or not people here believe the Ford promises and if they will be delivered for local highway funding, rail service and other announcements.
Incumbent Gilles Bisson is certainly in danger of losing. I used to say that he had a lifetime lock as MPP but that was the old riding. Timmins is a place that will kick out even the most successful politicians for a term but will often will elect them back. If Bisson loses this time, I wouldn't at all be surprised if he wins in 2026. Many feel that Pirie will be a one-term wonder who has been promised a cabinet position as Minister of Northern Development and Mines. Pirie has had a successful career in mining which of course is a big deal in Timmins. But I don't feel that he's looking to spend a very long time at Queen's Park.
My observations in Timmins so far:
I haven't seen this many PC lawn signs since Alan Pope was our MPP in the 1980s. I would say that PC signs outnumber NDP ones 4 to 1. BUT, overall the vast majority of residences don't have signs. PC signs are much more prominent in wealthier areas and with those who are self-employed and business owners. There is no Liberal candidate. This won't really help either of the two main candidates unlike in many other places. The PC Party has been very centrist which makes the party competitive here. It's not like in the Mike Harris days where Timmins had the lowest support for the PCs of any city.
Finally, the biggest issue for Bisson is fatigue among many more than usual who feel that having him as our MPP for 32 years has been too long. There has for a long time been criticism that nothing gets done having an NDP MPP but having a mayor run against him along with Doug Ford visiting Timmins with big money promises has attracted a lot of attention.
One big advantage that Bisson does have is that he is known as being one of the most effective MPPs for helping constituents obtain services and bringing forth issues to the legislature. This is probably the main reason he has won so many times. And it's also why I mentioned that Bisson could be back again if he loses this time.
I'm not yet ready to make a prediction. It seems that a lot of Pirie supporters are more vocal and wanting to show their support. Bisson seems to have many quiet supporters this time. Of the people I know, it's pretty split between the two candidates for who they are voting for.
15/05/2022 Richtheo007
Not sure how this became a TCTC riding. Bisson is the longest serving MPP and last time won by 57%. With Nickel Belt, it has to be one of the safest seats in Northern Ontario. Even with the fact that there is not a liberal candidate, there is no way that the Tories can beat this popular and effective MPP.
09/05/2022 R.O.
Ford made a campaign stop in Timmins to make an announcement on the northlander train and area highways. Alongside pc candidate George Pirie who was mayor of Timmins. Pretty sure no pc leader has visited timmins during an actual election for a very long time but not sure when last leader to do so was. Due to geography and fact Gilles Bisson a long time incumbent its typically not one theyd visit. Liberals still dont have a candidate here and election entering second week , no idea who there candidate could be although Del Duca not well known here so not much of a factor. Race obviously between ndp and pcs .
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Mayor George Pirie is running against NDP stalwart Gilles Bisson. Alhtough I think he'll make it competitive and I do think this seat is trending towards the PCs in the long-run, its probably a bit of a stretch this time.
21/04/22 A.S.
Even before Bisson's present health uncertainties, there was a certain cloud hovering over him--a combination of Pirie's candidacy and the FordCons just generically *really* gunning for the North, no holds barred (plus the fact that Timmins proper has historically been one of Charlie Angus's weaker zones). Though Bisson has been through scares before that belie his invincibility--the Libs coming within 10 points in '03, within 15 points in '07, the *Tories* (w/Kap mayor Al Spacek as candidate--no longer a factor in the riding, but still) in '11--and who's to say he *can't* be '22's answer to Jim Bradley in '18. Still, he survived those scares. But Jim Bradley survived many a scare, too. Then again, the Horwath Dippers don't seem headed for a Wynne '18 level of humiliation, so maybe it'll be more like '03/'07/11 all over again...
04/04/22 Stevo
I consider Timmins a realistic but still longshot target for the Conservatives. I do think Charlie Angus will lose in the next federal election in a few years (if he runs again), but 2022 might be a bit too early for this to flip especially given Bisson's huge margin.
14/03/22 R.O.
Gilles Bisson has been mpp for this area since 1990 , riding was realigned last election into a Timmins only riding as it had before included a large rural/remote area. the pc candidate this election is George Pirie who is the mayor of Timmins. Higher profile candidate than expected as this area has not been pc since the 80?€™s. liberals yet to select a candidate for the riding. Bisson one of the higher profile ndp mpps from northern Ontario so tough one to call at this point.
02/03/22 KXS
I don't think is a a lock for the NDP. Conservative parties have gained strength in Northern Ontario which is evident by federal and provincial results in the last few election cycles.
Sure Gilles Bisson has been an NDP incumbent since 1990. But it feels like the NDP is stagnant in the north.
I think Doug Ford's brand of folksy populism could play in this riding. On top of that, they are fielding Timmins mayor George Pirie here.
26/02/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
This is one of those seats where you could see New Blue or something like that really hurt the NDP, but as long as Giles Bisson is running, they should hold the seat. Given the relatively small population of Timmins however, the PC's having the mayor can always cause quite large swings, so that will be hard to see the effect of.
14/08/21 Richard T
This riding should move from too close to call to a sure win for Gilles Bisson. With Nickel Belt, this riding is as safe as it gets for the NDP.

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