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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Toronto-St. Paul's


Prediction Changed
2021-11-04 01:17:50
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Andrew, Jill

Lipton, Ian


Incumbent:
Jill Andrew

Population (2016):

107900
Population (2011):103983


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

JILL ANDREW
18,84335.96%
JESS SPINDLER
17,49833.39%
ANDREW KIRSCH
13,78026.30%
TERESA PUN
1,6903.23%
JEKIAH U. DUNAVANT
4480.85%
MARINA DOSHCHITSINA
1430.27%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

26,117 59.24%
10,571 23.98%
4,608 10.45%
2,271 5.15%
OTHERS 521 1.18%
Total Transposed 44,089
      Component Riding(s)

St. Paul's
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Carolyn Bennett **
32,49454.30%
Jae Truesdell
12,93321.60%
Alok Mukherjee
9,44215.80%
Sarah Climenhaga
4,0426.80%
John Kellen
9231.50%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Carolyn Bennett **
31,48155.30%
Marnie MacDougall
15,37627.00%
Noah Richler
8,38614.70%
Kevin Farmer
1,7293.00%


 

23/10/21 1 Benna9
174.94.31.105
FYI, the Liberals have nominated Dr. Nathan Stall as the candidate in Toronto-St. Paul's: https://ontarioliberal.ca/liberals-in-toronto-st-pauls-nominate-dr-nathan-stall-as-2022-ontario-liberal-party-candidate/
https://nathanstall.ca/
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/dr-nathan-stall-resigns-from-ontario-covid-19-science-advisory-table-1.5537540
03/10/21 0 Cal MacKinnon
72.39.155.140
I think itís way to early to count Jill Andrew and Andrea Horwath out. Organization, money, good constituency work will help. Never underestimate the power of hard work.
29/09/21 1 Josh
174.93.86.20
Jill Andrew will win re-election on her own merits. She is a hard-working, highly visible MPP. Running on being a strong, local, MPP will see her re-elected.
24/09/21 2 Chris N
38.99.190.241
The Liberals have nominated Dr. Nathan Stall, a physician, to run for their party in 2022. The NDP brand might be a bit tarnished in St. Paul's following the resignation of their federal candidate this month due to an anti-Semitic statement. In a riding with a sizeable Jewish community, this could still resonate in 9 months. Advantage to the Liberals.
21/09/21 1 Colin
99.240.30.239
I'm not sure if St Paul's is ready to return an unknown liberal candidate to Queen's Park yet. Jill Andrew was, prior to the pandemic, on the street and getting herself better known. She presents herself as warm and approachable. A lot will depend on how innocuous the NDP's platform will be but currently, the Ford government, with their handling of practically every issue large and small, are still less popular than a fart in an elevator.
19/06/21 1 EP
45.41.168.91
The Liberals may or may not have a come back, may or may not be stuck at third place, but I don't think any objective observers would predict them to be stuck at 8 seats. Even in worst case scenario, they are going to pick up a handful. Eglinton and St. Paul's would no doubt be the top of the list.
12/05/21 1 Chris N
24.36.32.209
Even on the 2018 election day, with a looming Liberal implosion, I did not expect St. Paul's - the most Liberalish of Liberal ridings in Ontario - to flip Orange. To my shock, it happened. Three years later, With a new leader and better polling under Del Duca, the Liberals should have the advantage here. However, there have been murmurs about a questionable candidate selection process for the Liberals, which could sour the campaign.



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