Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Toronto-St. Paul's

Prediction Changed
2022-02-28 00:44:00

Constituency Profile



Alexandra, Zo?

Andrew, Jill

Goldberg, Yehuda

Libfeld, Blake

Lipton, Ian

Mihaylov, Christian Ivanov

Sharapova, Margarita

Stall, Nathan

Jill Andrew

Population (2016):

Population (2011):103983

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

26,117 59.24%
10,571 23.98%
4,608 10.45%
2,271 5.15%
OTHERS 521 1.18%
Total Transposed 44,089
      Component Riding(s)

St. Paul's
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Carolyn Bennett **
Jae Truesdell
Alok Mukherjee
Sarah Climenhaga
John Kellen

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Carolyn Bennett **
Marnie MacDougall
Noah Richler
Kevin Farmer


31/05/2022 Chris N
Since my last prediction last year, I still have this as a Liberal flip. The numbers for the NDP just aren't on their side to keep St. Paul's orange. It wouldn't surprise me if Liberals' margin of victory is smaller than what some of the seat projections are saying, based purely on Andrew's local popularity. However, I'm fairly certain this riding goes red on Thursday.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Prior to 2018 this had been a Liberal stronghold for years. Given that and they're running a star candidate I think they win the seat back on June 2.
23/05/2022 jeff316
Pundits assume NDP losses in places like Essex, Hamilton East and Timmins hurt the most - they're wrong. What will tear at the NDP souls are losses in places like Toronto-St Paul's and Kingston. There is a reason seats like these have been NDP targets - not just their gentrification, not just the decline of white ethnic Liberal voters, but also because it's easier to win a riding where you can count on the PCs getting 25% of the vote but never winning (rather than needing to beat the Liberals in a slugfest with 40%+ of the vote like in Parkdale or Kitchener or Davenport.) Add to that Jill Andrews being a stand-out MPP, one of the best of the class of 2018, excelling both in the Legislature and at constituency work, and this will be a critical loss for the NDP. And a loss it will be. Stall has used COVID to build his profile. HIs team is everywhere and his signs common, even in the NDP-friendly Davenporty west-end. Andrews had hers bruised by the previous federal NDP candidate's anti-semitic remarks in a very Jewish riding and has no the only option to "stop Doug Ford" vote in her sails. The question for Toronto St-Paul's will be can Andrews crack 25%? This could be close. But I would bet it really isn't.
22/05/2022 PY
I'm not inclined to believe the sign war here (the actual placement of those is key). 338canada.com has this firmly in the red column and the ONDP has slowly lost momentum after the main debate. Now that Andrea Horwath has COVID and is relegated to virtual events and announcements, this could hamper Jill Andrew's own efforts to get the undecideds and swingers on her side.
COVID remains an important issue here and Andrew was invisible during the pandemic, which is shocking given how highly touted she had been over the past four years. It doesn't surprise me that constituents have since largely tuned her and the ONDP's marketing attempts out as a result.
In the end, buyer's remorse will undoubtedly win out over any lingering sympathy for Jill Andrew.
20/05/2022 JW
Not so fast. The logical assumption would be that St Paul's and Eg-Law would be first couple ridings to fall back to the Libs in Toronto (and they likely will given the Lib-NDP poll spread at the moment).
But I took a walk on the few streets just south of Yonge/St. Clair (Balmoral, Farnham, Woodlawn), strong Liberal territory both provincially and federally, where Jill Andrews came in a distant 3rd in 2018. By sign count, it was roughly Orange 5:Red 1:Blue 1.
Perhaps the young doctor is a tad complacent with the "safe seat" he was given?
17/05/2022 Dom
Although local campaign polls show the liberals retaking this seat, I am unconvinced its a shoe in for them. I cannot speak for the eastern portion of this district, but the west end (west of Bathurst) is particularly orange. For every two Jill Andrew signs theres one liberal. It will certainly be more close this time around (I know it was close last time around) but given Jills incumbency and energy, the edge goes to her (60/40 odds). This district remains NDP.
13/05/2022 willowdale girl
According to the latest forum poll this riding will be a pickup for the liberals
09/05/2022 Colin Caldwell
While I am sure there are other candidates in this riding, you wouldn't know it from there street level presence.
The only name I see is Jill Andrew.
Name recognition goes along way.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
This was one of the Liberals narrowest losses in 2018, and Jill Andrew's victory was a real shocker. It seems almost certain she'll lose it to the Liberals.
20/04/22 MBM
As a long time resident here, I believe this riding will be the first to flip back to the red column with any sign of a return to relevancy for the Liberals. The margin of the NDP win in 2018 here was razor thin and I think it was a signal of Wynne-fatigue instead of a tectonic shift away from St. Paul's general preference for "champagne socialist" politicians towards a more militant NDP. This should be a Liberal pickup in the range of Liberals 40%, NDP 32%, PC 25%.
10/04/22 R.O.
Jill Andrew was first elected here in 2018 , the riding had no incumbent that year as liberal mpp Eric Hoskins didn’t run again but still seen as a surprise ndp pick up. New liberal candidate is Nathan Stall and pc candidate is Blake Libfeld. Not a riding the pc’s have won in decades but still get votes here typically over 20 % so still a factor here in the ultimate outcome. I’m not sure how much of an advantage being the incumbent is here , the ndp % of the vote here in 2018 was much lower than the other downtown ridings they won. Also never done better than 3rd here federally even in 2011 when they won seats in Toronto. A Toronto riding but not one that has typically been ndp other than in 1990 when Zanana Akande won in a similar way only to not run again. But riding still has the feel of an actual race compared to other years.
09/04/22 Colin
Jill Andrews just opened her re-election office at Yonge and St Clair. From a purely marketing point of view, her name is on the 40 yard line. I'm no longer wired into ad measurement, but the number of daily impressions at that corner is huge. If she can get some signage at Bathurst and St Clair, she will have won the visibility war.
05/04/22 Landon G.
I used to live here, and this is the riding I'm most confident of all will change hands this time around. The Liberals will win it, period. In 2018 this was by far the closest a non-incumbent Liberal came to winning, and their candidate then was an unusually low-profile one for this riding (and I would argue that they would've won even then had Wynne not conceded the election a few days in advance and endorsed strategic voting). Now they obviously have Dr. Nathan Stall, and voters here love being represented by big establishment names as well as doctors (Dr. Eric Hoskins, Dr. Carolyn Bennett). The NDP MPP has not had all that much of a profile, and she's also one of the most dogmatically leftist members of her caucus (e.g., whereas her Toronto caucus colleagues generally endorsed Jennifer Keesmaat for mayor in 2018, she supported Saron Gebresellassi), which I don't think has played that well here: this is very much a "liberal" riding, but not a radically leftist one. The PCs have been a non-factor here since the 90s.
29/03/22 A.S.
Seriously, the big crimp for the Libs here is that Jill Andrew has meant business--that is, she's performed like anything but the one-election wonder she's presumed to be, almost to the point of presaging a realignment if the Libs don't watch out (or, the Grits might be likelier to repatriate a whole lot of Del Duca 905 seats than St. Paul's at this rate). And keep in mind that while '21's federal NDP candidate resigned, the party's share rose from '19 anyway--so, *something*'s brewing in a paradigm-shifty way on the left here. Of course, the other big friend of Andrew is the assumed straitened state of the provincial Libs post-2018-debacle; that is, having the recent dominant history and having the gas might be two different things. Still, St. Paul's remains more broadly a byword for modern Brahmin perma-Liberalism a la Quadra--except that for it to fall to the NDP is a lot more discombobulating than falling to the Tories. So for all one knows, voters *might* conclude that Jill Andrew's "Liberal enough" under the momentary circumstance...
14/03/22 seasaw
If the Liberals want to become a recognized party again, this is one riding that they need to win. Having said that, Jill is no slouch. The Liberals may have nominated a good candidate, but it won't be an easy feat.
26/02/22 Max Eccles
This will be one of the first ridings to red if the Liberals bounce back in June.
26/02/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
Doesn't matter who the candidate is, this is St Paul's, one of the heartlands of Toronto Liberalism, and it will go Liberal. Likely won't be as strong of a victory, since they're facing an incumbent, but the margin of victory should be at least 10%.
With a new leader, I see the Liberals winning back this seat
02/01/22 No Name
At this point in the second day of the year the only certainty for St Paul is it will not be Progressive Conservative.
23/10/21 Benna9
FYI, the Liberals have nominated Dr. Nathan Stall as the candidate in Toronto-St. Paul's: https://ontarioliberal.ca/liberals-in-toronto-st-pauls-nominate-dr-nathan-stall-as-2022-ontario-liberal-party-candidate/
03/10/21 Cal MacKinnon
I think it?€™s way to early to count Jill Andrew and Andrea Horwath out. Organization, money, good constituency work will help. Never underestimate the power of hard work.
29/09/21 Josh
Jill Andrew will win re-election on her own merits. She is a hard-working, highly visible MPP. Running on being a strong, local, MPP will see her re-elected.
24/09/21 Chris N
The Liberals have nominated Dr. Nathan Stall, a physician, to run for their party in 2022. The NDP brand might be a bit tarnished in St. Paul's following the resignation of their federal candidate this month due to an anti-Semitic statement. In a riding with a sizeable Jewish community, this could still resonate in 9 months. Advantage to the Liberals.
21/09/21 Colin
I'm not sure if St Paul's is ready to return an unknown liberal candidate to Queen's Park yet. Jill Andrew was, prior to the pandemic, on the street and getting herself better known. She presents herself as warm and approachable. A lot will depend on how innocuous the NDP's platform will be but currently, the Ford government, with their handling of practically every issue large and small, are still less popular than a fart in an elevator.
19/06/21 EP
The Liberals may or may not have a come back, may or may not be stuck at third place, but I don't think any objective observers would predict them to be stuck at 8 seats. Even in worst case scenario, they are going to pick up a handful. Eglinton and St. Paul's would no doubt be the top of the list.
12/05/21 Chris N
Even on the 2018 election day, with a looming Liberal implosion, I did not expect St. Paul's - the most Liberalish of Liberal ridings in Ontario - to flip Orange. To my shock, it happened. Three years later, With a new leader and better polling under Del Duca, the Liberals should have the advantage here. However, there have been murmurs about a questionable candidate selection process for the Liberals, which could sour the campaign.

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