Whitby

	Coe, Lorne
	Labaj, Emil
	Labelle, Sara
	Lackner, Trystan
	Leblanc, Stephanie
	Mohammed, Aadil
	Rinella, Christopher
	Thom, Douglas

Incumbent:

		Lorne Coe
Population (2016):			128377
Population (2011):			122022
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		LORNE COE *
		26,471	45.80%
		NIKI LUNDQUIST
		21,158	36.61%
		LEISA WASHINGTON
		7,441	12.87%
		STACEY LEADBETTER
		1,958	3.39%
		RONALD HALABI
		522	0.90%
		DOUG THOM
		246	0.43%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		15,969	32.77%
		20,171	41.39%
		10,242	21.02%
		2,105	4.32%
	OTHERS	246	0.50%
	Total Transposed		48,733
Component Riding(s)
	Whitby-Oshawa (100.00% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Ryan Turnbull
		30,182	43.70%
		Todd McCarthy
		24,564	35.50%
		Brian Dias
		9,760	14.10%
		Paul Slavchenko
		3,735	5.40%
		Mirko Pejic
		860	1.20%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Celina Caesar-Chavannes
		29,003	45.00%
		Pat Perkins **
		27,154	42.10%
		Ryan Kelly
		6,677	10.30%
		Craig Cameron
		1,403	2.20%
		Jon O'Connor
		279	0.40%

	30/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
This area has been a PC area for a long time, I think that will stay the same after June 2.
	07/05/2022	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Some odd candidate news here the liberals had put out a news release on april 20 nominating Carleen Blisett. But a new release just went out today saying Aadil Mohammed is being nominated as the liberal candidate in Whitby. So she must of decided not to run or something changed her plans last minute. The ndp also running Sara Labelle not 2018 candidate Nikki Lundquist who did well here . but a longtime pc riding at the provincial level and Lorne Coe well liked mpp.
	28/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Government Whip Lorne Coe should easily hold this seat. Carleen Blissett of the Liberals may make a contest of it.
	15/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Whitby isn't even that much of a "one of the safer PC seats in the 905" case anymore--Lorne Coe did worse in '18 than Christine Elliott did in Newmarket-Aurora, and that was the *weakest* seat for the PCs in York Region. It really is the Flaherty-Elliott lineage skewing electoral impressions of Con safety in recent times; but dare to say, Lundquist's surprisingly stiff challenge in '18 hinted at the actual vulnerabilities beneath the surface--and in a seat which no longer had any supposedly Dipper-favourable "Oshawa parts", at that. Plus, Whitby seems to have become a point of transition btw/"Oshawa populism" and the more polyglot GTA dynamic spreading from Scarborough and into Pickering and Ajax--which might be why the NDP side of the ledger seems to have gone *up* there, vs settling down in Oshawa. But more than in Oshawa, it's a side of the ledger vulnerable to defaulting back into the big-tent Liberal camp--or at least, there isn't exactly a prospect of the NDP gaining Whitby while losing Oshawa. And were Elliott not the candidate, it might well have gone Lib in '14 in much the same Hudak-bomb way that Newmarket-Aurora did; so again, let's not get hasty in overstating the Tory stronghold-dom here. But in terms of '22, even if the Libs repatriate any of their old strength, Whitby's still a likelier NDP than Lib pickup, if only because of how far back (not just locally, but provincially) the Libs are coming from. (And its not unprecedented for an NDP pickup and a Lib share gain to happen spontaneously--it happened in Oshawa next door in 14. But the fact that we can now speak in serious terms of the NDP picking up Whitby *at all* speaks volumes.)
	26/03/22	seasaw 69.157.38.158
No contest here, Lorne Coe's got this riding. Niki Lundquist is running for the NDP again, last election Niki had a strong support last election, in spite of that, she lost by 10%. This time, you can't expect the Liberals to get only 12%, they'll be much stronger and the majority of their support is going to come from NDP, thus enabling the PC's to hold this riding
	21/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Lorne Coe was first elected in a 2016 by election in old Whitby Oshawa riding. The Whitby area has a long history of being pc provincially despite having been liberal federally at times. Last election more of a pc/ndp race and unclear if Nikki Lundquist plans to run for ndp again. Liberals yet to select a candidate
	10/03/22	The Lobster 142.113.168.243
Whitby is becoming a less and less reliable Conservative seat. Even so, if the PCs even get a plurality of seats in Ontario (highly likely), they will take it with ease, especially with an incumbent. This remains one of the safer PC seats in the 905. Whether this seat will ever send another opposition PC member is an interesting question, but not one that is likely to be answered this year.
	09/03/22	KXS 72.137.76.35
Whitby will remain a PC riding unless something significant changes during the election campaign. The Liberals and NDP both have a shot at winning this riding, should they be leading the popular vote.
	09/03/22	Finn 72.138.106.30
I expect the PCs to be able to win this riding. The Liberals and the NDP are splitting the vote throughout the province, and no bigger example is evident than in this riding. The Liberals seem to have no problem winning this riding federally, but they are polling in third in this riding provincially. However, they will still eat into enough NDP votes to keep this riding securely blue.