Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-22 13:18:00

Constituency Profile



Abati, Giovanni

Babic, Nick

Chesnik, Laura

Coulbeck, Melissa

Dowie, Andrew

Gifford, Steven

Grey-Hall, Gemma

Kaschak, Gary

Sevo, Sophia

Sylvestre, David

Percy Hatfield

Population (2016):

Population (2011):115528

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

5,599 15.25%
5,493 14.96%
22,818 62.16%
2,118 5.77%
OTHERS 682 1.86%
Total Transposed 36,710
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Irek Kusmierczyk
Cheryl Hardcastle **
Leo Demarce
Giovanni Abati
Dan Burr
Laura Chesnik

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Cheryl Hardcastle
Jo-Anne Gignac
Frank Schiller
David Momotiuk
Laura Chesnik


01/06/2022 R.O.
Tough one cause past numbers would seem to heavily favour the ndp but no incumbent this election and been a number of big announcements and endorsements for Ford in Windsor area. which have include visits to new electric battery plant and endorsements from several local mayors including the mayor of Windsor. Riding has seen some closer races in the past and federally was a close 3 way race the last couple elections. So if the ndp hold will be much closer than in 2018 as there numbers arent as high province wide and pcs seem to fairly well even in places they normally wouldnt. so ndp could hold the seat but not an entire shock if Andrew Dowie does a lot better than past pc candidates.
01/06/2022 C B
Okay, time for a reality check. The PCs will not take this seat. PC support in the city of Windsor hit a high in 2018. They will not get close to the support they had then as some conservatives look elsewhere due to their disappointment with Ford. Polls showing the Greens taking 10% are laughable at best. Liberal is still a dirty word here. The left vote will coalesce around the NDP. It wont be 62%, but the NDP will win.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Going to make a bold, perhaps not so bold prediction here and say this is going PC. Premier Ford was in the area today(May 30) for a reason, I think on June 2 this open seat will go PC for the first time in most of our lifetimes.
30/05/2022 seasaw
My earlier prediction was Liberal, but their campaign and their leader doesnt seem to resonate with people. The NDP campaign hasnt exactly been a work of art either, the way things look like now, the only hope that either of the opposition parties have, is to keep Ford from forming a majority, and then have a post election coalition. The NDP will fight to keep themselves in second and they will need ridings like this one to do it.
31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
I stand by that the PC's will take this riding, or at least make it a very close race. All projections end up wonky here since they include the Percy Hatfield factor in 2018 which no longer exists. And the NDP's support has fallen in the southwest, and this is one of the prime places for it to have fallen.
The Liberal candidate is also very good, though the Liberals are too dead in this part of the province to mount a challenge. NDP candidate is poor, tied to academia, and couldn't get elected municipally. Furthermore, Innovative's riding cluster's show's an NDP collapse among their consistent seats, and this is on the top of that list for where that loss of support comes from.
While an NDP win is not impossible(If New Blue plays a spoiler among angry voters), it should be a close race, and Ford keeps visiting this, out of the 3/4 essex ridings when he is in the area.
11/05/2022 CB
I am not going to make a prediction at this time. I merely want to add some local context to this race. The strength of the NDP vote under Hatfield in this riding is merely a reflection of the respect locals have for him and his broadcasting career. He was immensely popular in this riding. NDP support in this riding does not generally go over 50% (Comartin accomplished this barely a couple times federally, if memory serves), and over 60% is definitely an anomaly. That said, the NDP comfortably pulls 40%+, which is usually good enough for the win. I would be inclined to believe that their support will retract to this level without Hatfield. Just a local perspective, which in this case matters.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Percy Hatfield of the NDP retired. NDP numbers in the SW are down, and they've nominated a fairly weak candidate. I believe that councillor Andrew Dowie will become the first Tory since I believe 1967 to win a seat in Windsor.
20/04/22 A.S.
I've a measured skepticism about all this blowing the horn for Dowie, perhaps a bit because Windsorites tend to keep their municipal and their provincial/federal realms a bit separate, particularly when it comes to the rightward end of the spectrum. While I'm taking Dowie more seriously than "Windsor hasn't gone Conservative in our lifetimes" naysayers might claim, we're still dealing with an urban seat, something that carries its present-day roadblocks to PC power (though yeah, Ford populism might be a bit different). Plus, those who want to blow the horn about hospital politics have to remember that megahospitals out in the boondocks (particularly when they involve decimating inner-city facilities on their behalf) *are* controversial in the same way that Hwy 413 is controversial, and it's in that context that the hemming and hawing of GG-H must be understood. Indeed, the fact that the Cons and the Libs are both running municipal councillors could well work to mutual cancellation if we assume there's still a sturdy NDP electoral machine in place, and the fact that GG-H cannot boast such an electoral municipal record isn't necessarily a fatal minus--though particularly in a riding like this, who knows about her being more the downtownish "community leader" type than the auto-economy union stalwart. I'm certainly not anticipating a Percy Hatfield-scale landslide on her part--it could well be that a 3-way like the last couple of federal races is more plausible...
29/03/22 Finn
This riding has been NDP for a long time, and even with popular MPP Percy Hatfield retiring, there seems no plausible scenario in which the Liberals overtake the NDP, or that they even take enough votes away allowing for a PC win off a vote split. NDP hold.
25/03/22 R.O.
Percy Hatfield who was first elected here in a 2013 by election for the ndp is not running again. Tough one to predict at this point being an open race with no incumbent. Riding seen as very ndp friendly but federal liberals won it back in 2019. Its never been a pc riding yet there running a local councillor Andrew Dowie and Ford just in Windsor to announce a new electric battery plant. New ndp candidate is Gemma Grey Hall who is relatively unknown at queens park. Liberals found a city councillor Gary Kaschak to be there candidate.
26/02/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
I'm not usually an essex region NDP doomer, but it looks like the NDP candidate for this riding doesn't amount to much, while the Liberal's will be running a councillor, which gives the perfect opportunity for the conservatives to win a seat in Windsor for the first time in a long time
26/01/22 Dr. Bill
Looks like it'll be Andrew Dowie. He's frequently in the media, he's out working, he seems to be well regarded in all quarters, and has endorsements from both mayors.
Gemma Grey-Hall of the NDP was originally against the hospital site, didn't mention the hospital in her campaign launch, refused to answer questions on it when asked online, and when finally questioned by the Star is now conveniently in favour of it.
It sure looks like Percy Hatfield is sending her to do his constituency invitations, but it doesn't matter. People of this riding want the hospital and want more than lukewarm advocacy.
Gary Kaschak will/might run for the Liberals as cited in the Anne Jarvis column. What's he waiting for to decide on? Seems odd that he isn't being very committal if he actually has the fire in the belly or vision for the position.
Interestingly enough, Kaschak and Grey-Hall ran for the same municipal seat in 2018. Kaschak was the winner.
Their respective municipal electoral records are the following:
Dowie: 2395 votes
Grey-Hall: 628 votes
Kaschak: 932 votes
07/11/21 seasaw
I think with Percy Hatfield?€™s retirement, this is anybody?€™s riding. The PC ceiling here is about 30-33%, I believe a lot of the Hatfield voters, will switch to the Liberal candidate this time, thus enabling the Liberals to take a riding they once held
25/08/21 Art Van Nuys
I'm going to call it for Andrew Dowie. He'll break the PC drought for the first time in 90 years.
This riding isn't still what it once was. It is settling in nicely as a suburban, middle class series of neighbourhoods.
The NDP's nominee, Gemma Grey-Hall, has no profile to speak of or elected experience.
The Liberals will have to contest without their usual help in Tecumseh from Gary McNamara, since he's with Dowie. And so is Drew Dilkens, for that matter.
The PCs gave a huge gift to Dowie by finally advancing funding for the Regional Acute Care Hospital on County Road 42, which is wildly popular in this riding. The Liberals talked a lot about doing it but never did while in government.
This will be the ?€?Huh??€™ result of the provincial election.
16/08/21 Mr. Dude
The NDP have appointed former Ward 8 municipal candidate Gemma Grey-Hall as their nominee, replacing incumbent Percy Hatfield. There's apparently a nomination meeting scheduled, but the leader has already said who the winner will be. https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/grey-hall-nominated-as-ndp-candidate-for-windsor-tecumseh.
With respect to the two big provincial issues in this area - the Hospital and Highway 3 expansion, the NDP are silent-to-hostile. Grey-Hall herself questioned the location in 2018. https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/jarvis-who-will-be-windsors-newest-councillor
The PCs have an excellent shot at taking this seat if they can consolidate nominally soft Liberal and NDP voters as well as conservative Hatfield supporters. Their candidate Andrew Dowie has a good profile as a municipal councillor. The Liberals have the steeper hill to climb from 2018, but one cannot ignore their federal win. The federal election will tell us a lot about their relative strength.
One to watch for election night.
02/08/21 Sam
I can see why Percy Hatfield's retirement will be a blow to the NDP but this is firmly in their territory at the provincial level - gone are the days where the Liberals would be competitive here. Expect a reduced NDP total but nowhere near enough to lose the seat, probably around the 50% mark in terms of vote share.
19/07/21 Mr. Dude
You'd think the Liberals, hot off of the heels of their upset Federal win, would have someone lined up. Or at least someone showing a semblance of interest in running for them. There's been nothing.
Percy Hatfield has yet to commit to a new term and has been incredibly low profile since the 2018 election. There have been rumblings of him not running again. Nobody that the NDP runs could retain the Hatfield vote.
The only sign of life we've seen has been from the PC candidate Andrew Dowie. He's a two-term municipal councillor and civil engineer who appears to be well-regarded in Tecumseh, fairly visible in traditional and social media, and who even has the open backing of several sitting partisan Liberals and NDP local politicians including Tecumseh's Mayor, who is extremely well-known as a Liberal, and even Windsor's Mayor.
The PCs seem to have their eyes out here. They've funded new hospital planning for the riding after being iced by the Liberals after 2013. Ditto with Highway 3, long promised but with no action after 2011. Both of these were huge local wins.
Even Anne Jarvis seems to think he has a shot:
?€?I?€™m told the Conservatives believe they can win a riding here in the 2022 election. If Windsor-Tecumseh MPP Percy Hatfield retires, that riding will be open. The Conservatives went after a high-profile candidate and got civil engineer and Tecumseh councillor Andrew Dowie, who?€™s smart and well-known.
Several MPPs, cabinet ministers and Ford all participated in the online nomination meeting last November. Even Tecumseh Mayor and prominent local Liberal Gary McNamara is backing Dowie.
There hasn?€™t been a Conservative MPP in that riding since 1934. But the money for the hospital will be a heck of a boast on his campaign literature. Dowie sure jumped on it. Thirteen minutes after Bethlenfalvy began delivering the budget, Dowie?€™s news release arrived in my in-box. It called the $9.8 million for detailed planning ?€?transformative.?€™?€™
19/07/21 Samantha P
If Percy retires before the election (which he should) this will be a pick up for the PC's. Ford is targeting the area hard and the liberal leader is lackluster at best.
18/06/21 JW
For the most part, Southwestern Ontario (other than KW/Tricities) will be two way fight between PC and NDP. Conservatives, both federally and provincially, have talked a big game about picking up blue-collour Windsor but have never came close. (Federally, it was the Liberal that made things competitive in 2019.) This is going to stay as part of the NDP base.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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