Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:55

Constituency Profile



Dowie, Andrew

Percy Hatfield

Population (2016):

Population (2011):115528

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

5,599 15.25%
5,493 14.96%
22,818 62.16%
2,118 5.77%
OTHERS 682 1.86%
Total Transposed 36,710
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Irek Kusmierczyk
Cheryl Hardcastle **
Leo Demarce
Giovanni Abati
Dan Burr
Laura Chesnik

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Cheryl Hardcastle
Jo-Anne Gignac
Frank Schiller
David Momotiuk
Laura Chesnik


25/08/21 1 Art Van Nuys
I'm going to call it for Andrew Dowie. He'll break the PC drought for the first time in 90 years.
This riding isn't still what it once was. It is settling in nicely as a suburban, middle class series of neighbourhoods.
The NDP's nominee, Gemma Grey-Hall, has no profile to speak of or elected experience.
The Liberals will have to contest without their usual help in Tecumseh from Gary McNamara, since he's with Dowie. And so is Drew Dilkens, for that matter.
The PCs gave a huge gift to Dowie by finally advancing funding for the Regional Acute Care Hospital on County Road 42, which is wildly popular in this riding. The Liberals talked a lot about doing it but never did while in government.
This will be the ‘Huh?’ result of the provincial election.
16/08/21 1 Mr. Dude
The NDP have appointed former Ward 8 municipal candidate Gemma Grey-Hall as their nominee, replacing incumbent Percy Hatfield. There's apparently a nomination meeting scheduled, but the leader has already said who the winner will be. https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/grey-hall-nominated-as-ndp-candidate-for-windsor-tecumseh.
With respect to the two big provincial issues in this area - the Hospital and Highway 3 expansion, the NDP are silent-to-hostile. Grey-Hall herself questioned the location in 2018. https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/jarvis-who-will-be-windsors-newest-councillor
The PCs have an excellent shot at taking this seat if they can consolidate nominally soft Liberal and NDP voters as well as conservative Hatfield supporters. Their candidate Andrew Dowie has a good profile as a municipal councillor. The Liberals have the steeper hill to climb from 2018, but one cannot ignore their federal win. The federal election will tell us a lot about their relative strength.
One to watch for election night.
02/08/2021 Sam
I can see why Percy Hatfield's retirement will be a blow to the NDP but this is firmly in their territory at the provincial level - gone are the days where the Liberals would be competitive here. Expect a reduced NDP total but nowhere near enough to lose the seat, probably around the 50% mark in terms of vote share.
19/07/2021 Mr. Dude
You'd think the Liberals, hot off of the heels of their upset Federal win, would have someone lined up. Or at least someone showing a semblance of interest in running for them. There's been nothing.
Percy Hatfield has yet to commit to a new term and has been incredibly low profile since the 2018 election. There have been rumblings of him not running again. Nobody that the NDP runs could retain the Hatfield vote.
The only sign of life we've seen has been from the PC candidate Andrew Dowie. He's a two-term municipal councillor and civil engineer who appears to be well-regarded in Tecumseh, fairly visible in traditional and social media, and who even has the open backing of several sitting partisan Liberals and NDP local politicians including Tecumseh's Mayor, who is extremely well-known as a Liberal, and even Windsor's Mayor.
The PCs seem to have their eyes out here. They've funded new hospital planning for the riding after being iced by the Liberals after 2013. Ditto with Highway 3, long promised but with no action after 2011. Both of these were huge local wins.
Even Anne Jarvis seems to think he has a shot:
‘I’m told the Conservatives believe they can win a riding here in the 2022 election. If Windsor-Tecumseh MPP Percy Hatfield retires, that riding will be open. The Conservatives went after a high-profile candidate and got civil engineer and Tecumseh councillor Andrew Dowie, who’s smart and well-known.
Several MPPs, cabinet ministers and Ford all participated in the online nomination meeting last November. Even Tecumseh Mayor and prominent local Liberal Gary McNamara is backing Dowie.
There hasn’t been a Conservative MPP in that riding since 1934. But the money for the hospital will be a heck of a boast on his campaign literature. Dowie sure jumped on it. Thirteen minutes after Bethlenfalvy began delivering the budget, Dowie’s news release arrived in my in-box. It called the $9.8 million for detailed planning ‘transformative.’’
19/07/2021 Samantha P
If Percy retires before the election (which he should) this will be a pick up for the PC's. Ford is targeting the area hard and the liberal leader is lackluster at best.
18/06/2021 JW
For the most part, Southwestern Ontario (other than KW/Tricities) will be two way fight between PC and NDP. Conservatives, both federally and provincially, have talked a big game about picking up blue-collour Windsor but have never came close. (Federally, it was the Liberal that made things competitive in 2019.) This is going to stay as part of the NDP base.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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