Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-02-28 00:50:00

Constituency Profile



Dornn, Alex

Foster, Suzette A.

Mamakwa, Sol

Michelizzi, Manuela

Monck, Dwight

Sol Mamakwa

Population (2016):

Population (2011):32987

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

995 18.74%
639 12.03%
3,479 65.50%
198 3.74%
OTHERS !Syntax Error, *%
Total Transposed 5,312
      Component Riding(s)

Kenora-Rainy River
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Eric Melillo
Bob Nault **
Rudy Turtle
Kirsi Ralko
Michael Di Pasquale
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bob Nault
Howard Hampton
Greg Rickford **
Ember C. McKillop
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago


01/06/2022 NJam101
I'm pretty sure that Sol will be re-elected. The NDP is pretty popular among most Indigenous peoples in Northern Ontario and I'm quite sure that Mamakwa hasn't lost support in First Nations. In order for the PC candidate to have a chance, he would pretty much have to get every vote in Sioux Lookout and in any other tiny non-reserve community. That's very unlikely of course.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I'm in Newfoundland and Labrador but do follow trends in politics across the country. We have a similar riding here in this province that is made up of Indigenous or first nations people. That makes the riding unpredictable because of the low population. That said I see this riding staying NDP on june 2
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Sometimes there low-population ridings are hard to predict since big swings can happen rapidly, and results are often dependent less on party loyalty and more on geographical bases for the candidates. Seems like NDP incumbent Sol Mamakwa has a good chance of getting back in, but anything could happen.
21/04/22 A.S.
If anything explains why the Tories won decisively in Red Lake (and Ear Falls--and for that matter, the present Tory candidate's hometown of Pickle Lake), it's northern resource-town populism (that plus vote splitting in Red Lake due to overperformance by a high-profile Green candidate). Sioux Lookout, by comparison, is more of a regional service town for the reserves, with more melting-pot moderation and less racialized hostility. But yeah, watch that populism--it might not rob Mamakwa of his seat, but it certainly helped rob him of his majority in '18, and in a seat of special interest drawn in his favour, he won with a lower or barely higher share than either Howard Hampton or Sarah Campbell enjoyed in the pre-split Kenora-Rainy River this century. And if you recombined it with KRR, the Tories would still have had the plurality in '18. Still, Mamakwa would only lose *now* in the event of a total collapse or US-GOP-style suppression of the FN vote (and even the Ford Tories aren't so dumb as to try *that*).
25/02/22 R.O.
Sol Mamakwa was rather unknown when first elected in this new riding although managed to get some profile when he was mpp at queens park so likely he?€™ll keep this riding another term.
14/08/21 EP
Of the two far-north ridings Wynne created to boost indigenous representation, this one is the only truly predominantly indigenous riding, so to understand this riding, one must understand FN voting dynamic.
Many of the remote reserves belong to Nishnawbe Aski Nation (NAN) (which makes up half of the riding and has generally been NDP leaning) voted 80%+, or even 90%+, consistently for the NDP in both provincial and federal elections in the last 10 years. That forms are very strong and unshakable base for them in any election. The facts that Mamakwa is from a NAN FN and that he worked for the NAN political body only further solidified his lead in those polls.
In the last election, both PC and Liberal nominated strong local leaders from Sioux Lookout, the only large population centre in the riding. (PC candidate being the chief of the large FN community right outside the city, and Liberal candidate being the very well-liked mayor of the city, both were re-elected in subsequent elections) Despite that, Mamakwa still managed to essentially tie for first place in the Sioux Lookout and surrounding polls. The only community where another candidate beat Mamakwa decisively was Red Lake (unsure why, assuming the PC candidate was backed by prominent local leaders).
Should be an easy NDP hold.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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