Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Mushkegowuk-James Bay

Prediction Changed
2022-05-30 01:16:00

Constituency Profile



Bourgouin, Guy

Buckley, Mike

C?´t?©, Eric

Jones, Catherine

Pronovost, Matthew

Sadiq, Fauzia

Guy Bourgouin

Population (2016):

Population (2011):30037

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

2,533 30.30%
647 7.73%
5,038 60.26%
114 1.37%
OTHERS 28 0.34%
Total Transposed 8,360
      Component Riding(s)

Timmins-James Bay
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Charlie Angus **
Kraymr Grenke
Michelle Boileau
Max Kennedy
Renaud Roy

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Charlie Angus **
Todd Lever
John P. Curley
Max Kennedy


02/06/2022 NJam101
My prediction is that Guy Bourgouin will be re-elected but it will likely be much closer between him and PC candidate Eric Cote. If the PCs do better than expected then this riding could go PC. A.S. is correct about someone high profile and popular such as Al Spacek running would mean it would much more likely be PC.
01/06/2022 Richtheo
Finally. This riding should have been called a long time ago..
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Much like the other new riding in Ontario to boost Indigenous representation at Queens Park this riding will stay NDP on June 2.
29/05/2022 Dr Bear
I’m going out on a limb here and guessing that the reason why the EPP moderators haven’t called this, is because they are looking at results from federal elections. In those votes, we see the CPC candidate holding steady, while the PPC gaining above average support, at the expense of the NDP. I would suspect to see a similar slide in support from the NDP to the provincial fringe parties. The difference is that the provincial PCs are not viewed favourably by these types (hence why we have two far right fringe parties), and I suspect that the PCs will lose support compared to 2018. The bottom line is an NDP win with a smaller share of the vote.
21/05/2022 ME.
Guy has a lead and the riding is going NDP
Editor's Note: This poster has consistently mislabelled modeling by 338canada.com as local polling, which is not the case.
19/05/2022 Richtheo
I don’t understand how this riding is still TCTC. The incumbent won by over 50% last election and has done a decent job. Even if the NDP is dropping in the polls provincially, the is one riding that will remain orange.
19/05/2022 Eirc
NDP hands down ... if you look at poll by poll results here going back to 2003, a low point in the provincial NDP results, (see Canadian Election Atlas website) the NDP dominate in this part of the old Timmins-James Bay riding then held by Gilles Bisson. If the NDP would have won the notional riding back in 2003, they'll win it this time around with the NDP polling much higher than their 2003 provincial support of 14.7%.
13/05/2022 R.O.
Whats odd about this riding is fact it has so few voters so in theory if someone really popular ran from the highway 11 corridor which in this riding is a heavily French Canadian area they might have a chance. The remote first nations area definitely won’t go pc but voter turnout always an issue in those places. Still see the ndp having the advantage here as they have incumbent and race features no high profile candidates , Ford did campaign in nearby Timmins and does seem to poll better up north than other pc leaders. so Its possible race could be closer than 2018.
10/05/2022 Finn
I would be cautious of saying that the NDP will win this riding. Guy Bourgoin definitely has a good chance, and probably the best out of anyone, but keep in mind that with the NDP dipping in support, the PCs could pull off a surprise win here. Unlikely still, but I would still put it in the TCTC category for the moment.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
This is seat took the safest parts of the old Timmins-James Bay for the NDP. Incumbent Guy Bourgouin is a sure thing to get back in.
21/04/22 A.S.
Somehow, the NDP majoritied here while missing out on Kiiwetinoong--maybe a bit the absence of Green vote-splitting, maybe the fact that it had all been represented federally by the NDP, maybe the relative absence of resource-town right-populism combined with the greater Franco-dynamic. And somehow, the NDP still significantly underpolled what was left of Gilles Bisson's Timmins, and the Tories even finished slightly above--but that was through wasted overperformance in Kapuskasing vs Lib disintegration, while Hearst went the other way, holding the NDP short of a majority but putting the *Libs* second as a ghost of their traditional strength. MJB would only stand a chance of falling if ex-Kap mayor Al Spacek gave it another go for the Tories--and he isn't.
11/04/22 Voter
With Guy good hard work during the last 4 years and popularity in the riding i don’t see much of a chance for Conservative Eric Cote. I predict at least 60% of the vote going Ndp come june 2nd.
14/03/22 R.O.
Guy Bourgouin first elected here in 2018 which was first election this riding existed. Still seems odd to have created a new riding here. I?˘â‚¬â„˘d imagine being an incumbent in a seat with so few voters would be a significant advantage. New pc candidate is Eric Cote and no liberal yet. Likely ndp hold
27/09/21 Sam
There's a bit of an air of doubt surrounding this seat for me - but as well as on some sort of uniform swing, it's hard to see anyone but the NDP take it - they only need to hold onto most of their votes after all, and it's hard to see the PCs get in via some perfect vote splitting - their only option without an actual solid base in any part of the riding.
14/08/21 EP
While Wynne created this far-north ridings in hopes of boosting indigenous representation, the population from the indigenous communities belonging to Nishnawbe Aski Nation (NAN) (which has generally been NDP leaning) is actually not that dominants in this riding.
Vast majority of the populations are actually along HWY 11, which also consists of a handful of NAN communities but mainly towns like Hearst (a quarter of the riding voters) and Kapuskasing (more than a third) with large populations of French speaking Metis and non-indigenous voters. While Bourgouin dominated those two towns in 2018, the Liberals have been competitive in both towns (and to a less extent Conservative in Kapaskasing) in federal and provincial elections in the past 10~15 years.
I don't foresee either the Liberal or PC nominating anyone to be competitive in those towns in 2022, so should be an easy NDP hold, but this is not a solid NDP riding as number would suggest.

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