Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-14 12:12:00

Constituency Profile



Bischof, Harvey

Bory, Leslie

Bouma, Will

Brudzinski, Tad

Csordas, Karleigh

Ferguson, Rob

Toor, Ruby

Turmel, John

Wilson, Allan

Will Bouma

Population (2016):

Population (2011):132443

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

18,899 37.86%
14,746 29.54%
13,677 27.40%
2,007 4.02%
OTHERS 589 1.18%
Total Transposed 49,919
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Phil McColeman **
Danielle Takacs
Sabrina Sawyer
Bob Jonkman
Dave Wrobel
Jeffrey Gallagher
John The Engineer Turmel
Leslie Bory

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Phil McColeman **
Danielle Takacs
Marc Laferriere
Kevin Brandt
Rob Ferguson
The Engineer Turmel


30/05/2022 dtcaslick
No opinion here. I think this one is going to be close, as the margin of victory last time is within the range I could see the New Blue steal from the Tories. This is a growing riding, due to be split at 130,000+, so its demographic may be changing. Like I have said elsewhere, the New Blue is Ontario's version of the PPC and I expect they will get similar numbers. That could flip a lot of ridings that were close last time around and this one is textbook.
30/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
I spent quite a bit of time in this riding over the weekend. Signs were mostly a 2 way race between PC and NDP, though the NDP's margin in Brantford and Paris is not enough for victory, since they need to win both of those by enough to offset the rural dairy belt. Saw a good number of new blue signs, though I don't believe that will hurt the PCs, even though they should get about 8%.
Liberals were strong in Liberal areas, which is to say, areas that either voted liberal in 2018, or did not exist then. Will likely get about 20%.
Greens will be greens and get a bit above 5%.
Given the PCs can count on 40% of the vote, there is no path to an ndp victory, no matter how cool it would look on the map
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Another seat I think many will watch on June 2. This seat has never been much of a PC stronghold and the last time they won here before 2018 was 1995.I think the NDP made it interesting here in 2018 and they get the job done here in 2022.
11/05/2022 M H
After long-time Liberal MPP and former speaker, Dave Levac, decided not to run again 2018, a vacuum was created that saw both the Ontario Liberals and local Liberal operation bottom out. What resulted was a very tight two-way race between the local PC candidate, Will Bouma, and his then NDP opponent, Alex Felsky.
This division essentially split the riding between rural and urban with almost all the polls in the city of Brantford going NDP, while the Tories were able to run up the score in the rural polls. Will was able to leverage his position in the county just enough to edge out a victory by the slimmest of margins last time, 635 votes to be exact.
Four years and a global pandemic later Brantford-Brant remains a two-way race between the Tories and the NDP. The difference being that Will must now run on his record of cuts and ignoring constituents. His physical absence in the riding over the past four years, especially in the city of Brantford proper has not gone unnoticed by constituents accustomed to a much more locally involved MPP in Levac. And when Will has had a presence in the city, controversy has followed. His constituency office was protested vigorously several times by large groups opposed to his outspoken views on LGBTQ+ issues and abortion. Even local Tories have found it difficult to stand next to Will after his views became public. Will’s absence as a local leader during the depths of the pandemic did not go unnoticed either. He must also contest with an upstart, anti-lockdown party in New Blue, which has eaten into his once solid right flank. Will’s re-election chances are far from guaranteed this time.
On the other hand, the local NDP has a new candidate in Harvey Bischof. Having recently stepped down as president of OSSTF, Harvey’s political profile, interestingly, was much larger at Queens Park and in the rest of Ontario than it was here in his home riding. The challenge before him is to connect with locals in the riding and be recognized as a champion of their concerns. And by all metrics Harvey has risen to that challenge. Harvey and his team knocked 10,000 doors before the election even started, and the impression they have left is starting to pay dividends. Rapid development in the county has also eaten into traditional Tory strongholds as suburbanites from Hamilton and the GTA, more diverse and accustomed to voting for progressive candidates, will file into rural polling stations in the county for the first time.
Incumbency is a powerful political force in local politics, but after four years in office, Will has failed to endear himself to the people for Brantford, and in some cases turned them away with his brand of outspoken social conservativism. Will’s campaign promises have yet to gain the traction required to stop the bleeding either. If trends continue, I foresee Harvey turning this riding orange for the first time in thirty years in a close race regardless of what is happening the rest of Ontario.
30/04/2022 jonny H
With NDP candidate Harvey Bischof being a parachute candidate in this riding lowers the chance of an NDP win here. Harvey is already on the books for the federal NDP in a northern riding. Will Bouma has a lot of issues that also lower the chance of a big win. The liberal candidate isn't going to be much of a threat in this one. I think this riding could go to the "other group" this time.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
PC MPP Will Bouma narrowly took over this formerly Liberal seat from the NDP in 2018. The NDP are running a strong candidate, but I believe Bouma will hold the seat this time.
20/04/22 A.S.
The best NDP losing share in '18, and better than the federal Cons did in '15, 19, and 21; so no wonder they'd be supertargeting it now. Trouble for them is: the Cons still seem wedged into that lowermost 40s zone where any opposition effort *really* has to galvanize as it did in '18, and nobody's twigged into how, exactly, to pare that down. As a big city, Brantford *should* be amenable to opposition forces; except that it's a big city still nursing old rust-belt wounds and complexes and feelings of alienation relative to the more metropolitan/cosmopolitan nearby archipelagos of Hamilton and K-W. Thus when it comes to Obama/Trump right-shifting, if a Niagara Centre-type seat is "on the way", Brantford-Brant crossed that threshold some time ago and is sort of lumbering along in that mode with added fuel from the rural parts. It's the kind of seat where the spirit of Andrea '14 and Andrea '18 would make for a magical confluence--but also, if we go by Tory doldrums over the Levac-era elections, where a Lib resurgence that's more about prying away suburban Con-moderates can act as an assist. Like, if you look at the '18 figures, all but 3 or 4 of the megapolls within Brantford proper went NDP, so the *city's* spirit is willing--the Dippers were just a South Dumfries away from winning, so to speak...
17/04/22 Max Eccles
The NDP weren't able to win this riding in 2018 in a better political climate, including higher poll numbers and no incumbent in this seat. With weaker polling numbers in 2022, I think the NDP will fall short again. The PCs will likely improve their margins over the last election.
16/04/22 Brandon
I don't share this view about how Bischof presents himself at all but that's a matter of opinion. What isn't opinion is that Bischof and Bouma have lived in the riding about the same length of time. I also know Bischof supports Catholic education and his own kids all went through the Catholic system; people who want to get rid of Ford and the virtually invisible Bouma will coalesce around Bischof, not Toor who got 9 percent of the vote last election. I'm calling this an NDP gain.
13/04/22 Cory
This will be one of the more interesting ridings to watch in the province. It was very close last time and the NDP seem well organized and ready for this campaign. The Liberals seem to have given up on the riding this time and will instead rebuild for next time judging by the fact that they nominated the same candidate from before who didn't do well. Brantford-Brant usually has strong MPPs but the current MPP hasn't been very visible over the past 4 years and this will hurt him in a riding where the local candidate matters. The PC numbers look good provincially which will benefit Bouma but I wouldn't count out a Harvey Bischof win here.
11/04/22 Old Tory
NDP guy has four things working against him.
1. Comes across as an angry union guy
2. He is from “away�. I know exactly how that feels. I have been here since 1973 and still don’t feel like I am from here. We vote locals in year after year from all three parties.
3. Doesn’t seem to be getting much coverage but he is against the separate school system and there are a lot of RCs in the riding. Thinking it also won’t be a popular view among the RC teachers who normally might be his natural supporters.
4. No way can Toor do as bad as she did the last go around.
06/04/22 R.O.
Will Bouma was first elected here in 2018 in a close race with the ndp after long time liberal mpp Dave Levac retired. New ndp candidate is union leader Harvey Bischof and liberals running Ruby Toor again. Could of seen the ndp having a shot here back when they were winning by elections in southern Ontario , it would have been the type of seat they could do well in a by election scenario. but the federal cpc held same riding last election despite the fact long time mp Phil Mccoleman retired and new candidate Larry Brock relatively unknown. During what was a poor election for the cpc in urban southern Ontario. Brantford is growing small city and Hamilton isn’t far away so the ndp and liberals will still be competitive here.
06/01/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
The NDP seems to have a fairly decent candidate here, I'd give it 50/50 between them and PCs winning
07/11/21 seasaw
PC?˘â‚¬â„˘s have the advantage here, Will Bouma?˘â‚¬â„˘s numbers may drop, but he will probably win by a larger margin than the last time. Expect the Liberal vote to increase by at least 7 percent and the NDP to drop by about 5, that?˘â‚¬â„˘ll still give the advantage to Bouma.
18/06/21 JW
For the most part, Southwestern Ontario (other than KW/Tricities) will be two way fight between PC and NDP. While Brantfort has long Liberal history, they have not been viable options federally in recent years, and would not have been provincially without Speaker Levac. But then, 10% is likely the floor for them. If the NDP could not pick it up when they only had 10%, they are not likely to grow. PC advantage, but not slamdunk.
16/05/21 Chris N
Many predicted this would be an NDP pick up in 2018 instead of a PC one. I expect the NDP, and maybe a rejuvenated Liberal party, will be eyeing this riding in 2022.

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