Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-22 13:03:00

Constituency Profile



Aldea, Sebastian

Drummond, Andrew

Hutton, Kyle

Manaa, Mariam

Mckenzie, Allison

Pierre, Natalie

Jane Mckenna

Population (2016):

Population (2011):120569

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

23,690 43.37%
20,181 36.94%
7,880 14.43%
2,265 4.15%
OTHERS 611 1.12%
Total Transposed 54,628
      Component Riding(s)

(99.21% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(0.79% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Karina Gould **
Jane Michael
Lenaee Dupuis
Gareth Williams
Peter Smetana

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Karina Gould
Mike Wallace **
David Laird
Vince Fiorito


25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The site I use for projections is showing this seat going Liberal based upon polls. I can't see it, I have it as going PC and the NDP not Liberals finishing 2nd. To much PC history here.
23/05/2022 jeff316
What's fascinating about Burlington is that neither the PCs or Liberals could find a top tier candidate for a top tier riding. Is that a sign of people turning away from electrical politics? Is it bad local organisation? Who knows. But no one here is particularly stellar. Burlington isn't a riding known for much signage, so the sample size is small - but to be fair, the NDP's Andrew Hammond is certainly holding his own. But don't be fooled - the Burlington NDP is oh so cute. Every year someone comes on this website posting that a change is in the air. That change is not gonna come. Neither opposition party has wind in their sails. After a nuts first year, Ford's staff have reined him in and he's no longer the potential whacko Premier that you just need to keep out. With a stronger, more local Liberal candidate this would have likely been a pickup but in all likelihood the PCs will keep this in the fold.
22/05/2022 CD
This riding, like Oakville, leans more Liberal than it used to. Federally it's more Liberal than ever. The 2018 result is not indicative of what will happen here. Even the most pessimistic polling has the Liberals at a high enough number to grab this riding.
15/05/2022 AH
For Burlington, I have seen a shocking number of NDP signs up. I just did a drive around today, and there's no comparison. The candidate had a record performance in the last election, and seems to have immense support from the provincial party. Momentum for the ONDP is growing here. Maybe Burlington is finally ready for a change.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
I go back and forth on this one, but ultimately I think that a PC incumbent retiring and changing demographics will play into this being a close race. All three major parties are running strong community candidates. Ultimately I think the Liberals will come out on top, with their win put at risk by strong NDP and even Green campaigns splitting the vote.
24/04/22 ARR
Last election Andrew Drummond came second to the PC candidate who isn't running this time. Both his PC and Liberal opponents do not live in the riding. Mr. Drummond has lived in the riding for many years plus his ancestors, the Buntons, were amongst the original founders of the city. I have been told that he has been canvassing door to door since last October. The personal contact with the voters is the heart and soul of a campaign. I was very impressed with his performance at all candidate debates in the last election and expect that will be the case again this time. He is definitely a strong contender to win the riding on June 2.
14/04/22 A.S.
It might have been a consistently PC riding going into 2014; but while Liberal targeting *worked* that year, they'd already held the PCs to supermarginality over the 3 previous McGuinty-era generals, so don't say that they hadn't been warned--particularly in a post-Mike Harris era, the "natural" Tory safety of this kind of professional-class Lakeshore commuter-belt riding could no longer be taken as an eternal condition. It was *already* more vulnerable than a lot of presently-Tory SW Ontario rural-heartland seats that were once strongholds for "Clear Grit" Liberaldom. Of course, the weird thing about '18 was the NDP coming up the middle to finish 2nd--then again, besides being next door to Andrea's Hamilton, Burlington's always had a stealth progressive streak (electing both NDP and Green mayors over the past third of a century), so in an election like *that*, such untapped "natural gravity" ought to have been allowed for. Of course, too, that wound up splitting the opposition--camouflaging the fact that McKenna won w/a share barely above her '14 winning share, which was itself the weakest for the party within living memory (and the fact that Burlington's scarcely a "Ford Nation" type of Tory seat didn't help matters. With that former 2nd place NDP candidate running again, the chances of a repeat "inconvenient" opposition split are pretty high; but it says something about where Burlington's gone in recent times that opposition splits are required *at all* to elect the PCs. Though a real crazed possibility at the other end might be that of *both* the Libs *and* the NDP rising enough to render the PCs a 3rd place party (which'd require Ford cocking up on a scale approaching that of Wynne in '18).
06/04/22 Kyle Hutton
One of these candidates seems familiar... hmm
In seriousness, with McKenna out, a re-energized Liberal base and a strong NDP run from last time (and the best Green candidate in the province ;D) Burlington will be a bellweather for June 2nd. The issues of affordable housing and development are massive and the focus of many local activists and groups, many of which are not happy with the Ford government. This definitely shouldn't be a PC lock - TCTC.
20/03/22 R.O.
Jane Mckenna who was first elected here in 2011 lost in 2014 but re elected in 2018 announced a couple weeks back that she was not going to run again. Natalie Pierre was announced as the new pc candidate for the riding. Ndp are running Andrew Drummond again and liberals have a new candidate Mariam Manaa. Riding had been pc for a very long time but closer races in recent years as the city of Burlington has grown more urban.
19/03/22 seasaw
Prior to 2014, this was always a PC riding. In 2014, the Liberals took this riding, because the Liberals targeted this riding, and the PC incumbent was also the target of some unions, and of course, Mr Hudak?€™s performance didn?€™t help. This time the Liberals won?€™t be able to target a riding like this, they?€™re not in the government nor are they a recognized party, they don?€™t have the money to do it,
NDP isn?€™t particularly strong in this riding, so in conclusion, PC hold.
26/02/22 Max Eccles
The incumbent PC MPP is not running for re-election. I would give the edge to the PCs, but the Liberals might have a shot at winning it back after they lost the seat in 2018.
16/11/21 Mr. Voter
In 2018, MPP Jane McKenna recaptured Burlington for the Ontario PC's. Considering that the Liberals have won here provincially only once in the past 75 years, that was no surprise. What caught everyone off guard was the NDP surge, perhaps partly due to their leader Andrea Horwath being from the neighbouring riding. Despite the PC's not having as much support here as in the past (it seems that Oakville has become the bluer area of Halton), the NDP/Liberals seem to be splitting the vote now.
With PC support leading in the 905 Region (41% PC to 29% Lib, according to the recent Leger poll, shown in the link below), I predict that the PC's will hang on to Burlington.
18/06/21 JW
Despite winning all four seats in Halton Region, Ford did not elevate a single Halton MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the region) This is especially a slap in the face for McKenna given her previous experience in the legislature and was seen as a cabinet shoo-in under Patrick Brown. I suspect if Ford is back in as Premier, most of the four Halton MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out, none will buck the trend.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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