Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-19 00:37:00

Constituency Profile



Johnson, Carla

Karahalios, Belinda

Knight, Marjorie

Riddell, Brian

Shenoy, Surekha

Belinda Karahalios

Population (2016):

Population (2011):111693

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,291 38.92%
12,769 32.50%
8,513 21.67%
2,203 5.61%
OTHERS 512 1.30%
Total Transposed 39,288
      Component Riding(s)

(98.46% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(1.54% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bryan May **
Sunny Attwal
Scott Hamilton
Michele Braniff
David Haskell
George McMorrow
Manuel Couto

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bryan May
Gary Goodyear **
Bobbi Stewart
Michele Braniff
Lee Sperduti
Manuel Couto


01/06/2022 dtcaslick
I really think the New Blue vote in this riding is being seriously underestimated. I have been driving around this riding extensively for work over the past two weeks and there are more Karahalios signs on private property than Riddell signs. I don't think that means she is going to win, but she is going to split the vote. This may be a four way race, although I think that is unlikely, but I'll go out on a limb and say New Blue makes double digits percentage-wise. There are a lot of "Save Public Education" and "Don't Privatize Healthcare" signs all over this riding too. My best guess is NDP, but I wouldn't place a bet on it.
01/06/2022 prog15
Karahalios and her husband running nearby have no personality-based attraction to voters (unlike Ontario Party's Rick Nicolls in Chatham-Kent) and however desirable it might be for freedom to create a check on PCs from the right (so they do not introduce mandatory vaccination in the interests of Big Pharma and political left of pseudo-science, for example), the vote here will not migrate to them in any meaningful way, in particular in this largely urban riding. On the contrary, centrist and right voters will align behind PC to limit repressive progressivis control. The demography here is better for PCs than in Waterloo or Kitchener Centre, while the left/far left has no obvious candidate to rally around (unlike in Waterloo, Guelph or London) and will split between a controversial NDP contender and a Liberal. Not a cakewalk for Ford PC, but should be a PC hold nonetheless.
31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
PC's should do better without Karahalios being on their ticket, since the 2018 nomination was very contentious, and the Karahalios's are generally known as a bit of a nuisance. NDP and Liberal candidate's aren't much to speak of(especially compared to McGarry, who easily won the mayoralty). Most projections that have this going Liberal focus on the 2018 results, which aren't very helpful.
NDP nomination was a bit contentious here, though likely won't play a role, since the NDP won't play a role here.
The only thing that could swing this Liberal is the new developments, which Strongly lean Liberal.
I still think this will be the PC's easiest hold in Waterloo region though.
29/05/2022 dtcaslick
No prediction here. I think having the incumbent on the ballot with the New Blue Party may be an issue for the PCs. Whether or not it will be big enough to cause them to lose is another matter. Knight is back for the NDP after finishing a strong second last time out, McGarry is mayor and not running, so we'll have to wait and see. I don't think this is an automatic PC riding. I could see the New Blue Party drawing around 5%, which would be enough to throw this one orange. Think of the New Blue like the PPC of Ontario and I think you will see similar numbers for them on election day.
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I wonder how the New Blue party does in this election and also if they affect results in any riding. This riding could be an example of that. For now I'm going to give a slight edge to the PC's in this riding but it could be close.
19/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
Belinda is going to be in fringe candidate numbers. This is a Tory riding. With Ford on a cake walk, Riddell is the odds-on favourite here.
10/05/2022 Finn
The result here is a simple one, and it depends on one single factor: If the New Blue does well, it will go Liberal, if the New Blue does poorly, it will go PC. I will be watching closely to see their support in the polls before making a final prediction.
05/05/2022 SarahMitts
It is well known by locals that the municipal government does not function well and takes their manufacturing base for granted. Most likely a PC win, but the vote splitting on the right could be interesting. It will also be interesting to see how hard the mayor campaigns (former Liberal Transport Minister) as it will be a sign of whether or not the Liberals see her as an asset or a liability.
28/04/22 R.O.
Surprised people would predict Cambridge as liberal , this riding has been pc since 1995 with the exception of 2014 when Kathryn Mcgarry won as a liberal. but she was a high profile candidate and the current mayor of Cambridge. New candidate is Surekha Shenoy who is low profile and liberal leader Steven Del Duca is more or less unknown in south western Ontario. Both Ford and Horwath would be better known party leaders in Cambridge. Don’t know how much of a following current mpp Belinda Karahalios has in Cambridge and if her New Blue Party will amount to much. But can’t envision any realistic scenarios where she holds this riding this election. Her party is running a surprisingly high number of candidates but remains unknown to most voters. Most likely outcome is a pc/ndp race here
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Now, I don't think incumbent MPP Belinda Karahalios will do particularly well here, but with historically close Liberal/PC dogfights, even if she wins 3-5% of the vote she might help hand this riding to the Liberals. The Liberals have nominated Surekha Shenoy, a candidate with a strong resume of community service. She'll narrowly best PC candidate Brian Riddell, with the NDP, riven by a contentious nomination process, falling back to third.
20/04/22 A.S.
Sounds like a mess from all ends here, particularly w/Belinda K. in the running and whatever this NDP business is about; yet the NDP could win anyway, the PCs could push back through as a voice of sanity, and re the Libs prospectively doing "a lot better", they already did a lot better than they could've through McGarry's residual incumbent popularity in '18 (affirmed through her subsequent election as Mayor), and their present candidate is a retread from a neighbouring riding last time. A sub-30% win, possibly? (Or if not that, incumbent-party status quo.)
16/04/22 elyab
iPolitics currently has it PC 35.6-OLP 29.4-20 NDP. There's no big difference in 'Other' support in Cambridge compared to other Waterloo region ridings in their projection though, so New Blue should be a bit higher than 9% that they give them, PCs a bit lower. Other than that, OLP has most to gain in a campaign due to lack of attention they currently get compared to PCs/NDP. All that said, I think the result will be ~OLP 34-PC 32.
07/04/22 seasaw
Belinda Karahalios will undoubtedly take some votes from the PC’s, the Liberals will do a lot better than last time, the NDP, hasn’t won this riding since 1990, and while they were in a good position to win, they are facing some controversy over their nomination, 14 out of the 15 members of their EDA have resigned and their last candidate to win this riding, Mike Farnan, has also resigned from the NDP and has now managing the campaign for the Green candidate, and while Greens aren’t expected to do anything, they will take enough votes away from the NDP to make a PC win possible.
02/04/22 AD
I seriously doubt Belinda has a realistic chance of re-election, but it is possible she splits the right-wing vote enough this goes NDP.
24/03/22 seasaw
This riding was close last time but a big part of the reason was the state of the PC Party at that time and the local campaign. The Liberals have only won this riding once and one can probably say that Mr Hudak had a lot to do with that. The NDP haven't won this riding since 1990, and not very likely to do it this time. Today, people feel more comfortable with Ford and the Liberal leader isn't despised either.
20/03/22 Cal
Two facts: The NDP has never taken its foot off the campaign gas and has a well organized ground game and will hold their vote. The right wing split will benefit the NDP.
07/03/22 R.O.
Can?€™t imagine the riding staying new blue with Belinda Karahalios. Who was originally elected as a pc mpp and then independent until she and her husband came up with the new blue party. a political party that no one has likely even heard of. the new pc candidate is Brian Riddell , Marjorie knight is back for the ndp and Surekha Shenoy is the liberal candidate. Need to see how election shapes up before predicting further.
21/01/22 Colin Caldwell
She released a social media ad last week that was especially cringeworthy. Her positions seem to be anti vaxx and anti tax which might explain why she has slightly over 9,000 Facebook followers. It's highly doubtful given her fringe popularity that those 9,000 will translate to local support. This seat is up for grabs.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
This is probably the hardest riding in Ontario to predict. It's difficult to see where Karahalios will siphon votes from, given that in 1993, the NDP base here basically became reform. Also McGarry probably won't run for the liberals again, which will hurt them in the riding, unless they can find a comparable candidate. Though there is a growing base of people moving form Toronto, who are definitely Liberal leaning. Basically a complete tossup.
26/02/22 Max Eccles
Long considered a bellwether riding, I would say this riding leans PC at this time, but expect strong campaigns from the NDP and Liberals.

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