Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-22 12:55:00

Constituency Profile



Festeryga, Audrey Rahn

Jones, Trevor

Jubenville, Rhonda

Mcgregor, Brock

Nicholls, Rick

Surerus, Jennifer

Rick Nicholls

Population (2016):

Population (2011):111866

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

9,561 23.80%
14,851 36.97%
13,156 32.74%
2,090 5.20%
OTHERS 518 1.29%
Total Transposed 40,176
      Component Riding(s)

(94.37% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(4.83% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(0.81% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Dave Epp
Katie Omstead
Tony Walsh
Mark Vercouteren
John Balagtas
Paul Coulbeck

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Dave Van Kesteren **
Katie Omstead
Tony Walsh
Mark Vercouteren


31/05/2022 Jerry Mander
I still think it's too early to call this one. Under regular circumstances, I'd say it's a safe PC seat, with Doug Ford seen as doing an OK job and on cruise control heading for at least a minority government.
But a number of monkey-wrenches have been tossed into this one.
- Rick Nicholls, the previous PC MPP here, was turfed from the party after refusing to get vaccinated. He's not super popular in the riding overall but has a lot of appeal with the far right and anti-vaxxers in general, so his choice to run for the new Ontario Party (is that right?) will definitely peel some votes away from the PC's, just not sure how many. The fringe right wing parties make a lot of noise but their support crumbles on E-day, so how many will sitting MPP Nicholls be able to hold onto? However many it is, almost 100% of them will be lost PC voters.
- The Liberals, as in so many other ridings in the province, are a complete mess here. Their first chosen candidate didn't pass vetting and had to be turfed out for making homosexual slurs. Their next candidate apparently couldn't get enough signatures so they tried to pass off photocopied signatures from the previous candidate and got caught, so they are ineligible to run. The additional wrench here is that, because she was turfed late in the process, HER NAME REMAINS ON THE BALLOT. This will hurt the NDP's chances, potentially a lot. How many Liberal voters will still choose their candidate, not knowing they are ineligible? Or believing they've been put back on the ballot? How many Liberals will know she's ineligible but vote Liberal anyway, in protest or for another reason? How many of those Liberal voters will know she's ineligible and cast their vote for someone other than the NDP? The NDP should pick up a lot of those Liberal votes, but leaving her name on the ballot means they won't pick up as many as they're hoping for. My bet is a lot of Liberals will still vote Liberal, unless it's made VERY clear to them on E-day that she is ineligible.
- The NDP candidate has put in his time and is well liked and a "known commodity" in the riding. There's a sense that it's "time to give them a chance" by many, who just want some change for change sakes. Plus a lot of those Liberal voters, particularly the strategic "beat the Conservatives" types, will definitely swing their votes his way. He's not just attractive as the only real choice on the left to deny Ford a seat here, he's someone voters are comfortable with. There's still a lot of "never the NDP" voters out there but if they have a real shot to finally take this seat again, it's right now. I think the NDP see their opportunity and will work hard to get out their - and the Liberals' - voters.
- The PC candidate is well known and respected in Leamington, but with this being a rather large riding that "centers" on Chatham, with a number of "satellite" smaller cities and towns, that won't translate to a lot of votes elsewhere. He's an unknown and with the PC's losing votes to better known candidates, "it's just time for a change" voters and their former MPP running to the right, a lot is going to depend on how voters think he did in the debates - and how the press covers it. Word of mouth is important here, and outside my own pocket of friends and family I don't know how negative/positive he's being seen elsewhere.
This coud easily stay PC but I won't be shocked in the least to see it go NDP. The last few days of the election will be very telling and this is definitely one to watch on election night!
27/05/2022 Jeff H.
With Audrey Festeryga withdrawing from the race, I think things will get more interesting on election day.
I'm not sure that the vote shift from Liberal to NDP will be enough to close the gap to thevPCs, but I think the riding has gone from a safe PC seat to a bit more of a battleground. I think Trevor Jones still has the edge, but not by much.
27/05/2022 Dr Bear
We have seen in various recent elections just how effective these new, far-right parties have been. That is, despite making a lot of noise, not effective at all. If we had proportional representation, then they would have a voice in the legislature. But we donít, so they wonít, and Nicholls will be out of a seat despite the loud protestations of some.
27/05/2022 Cal
25% are pealed away from the conservatives a liberal nightmare and an NDP candidate who has some profile and a solid campaign. Might not ever be able to get re-elected but will have enough this time.
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Nicholls could make things interesting here as the incumbent, albeit with a different party. Still I think the PC's will win here on June 2.
23/05/2022 JonJenkins
A rare case of vote-splitting on the right in Ontario, this time looks poised to favour Jones.
23/05/2022 jeff316
Ridings like Chatham-Kent-Leamington are all about vote shifts. Who is moving from where? How many people were voting for the candidate rather than the party? As for Rich Nicholls, he'll keep a few voters that like him personally, take a few PC voters out of principle, and he'll hoover former marginal party votes. But if you were voting NDP or Liberal in a riding like this, you were not voting him the candidate, are not interested in Nicholls's positions - they're an embarrassment - and weren't voting for the NDP or Liberals based on candidates either. Heck, Stratton came second and she was a retread from another riding nomination. Add in PC populism, pre-election perks, and Ford riding high in the polls ... and we all know that the PCs are safe here. Not just safe, but super safe.
21/05/2022 prog15
CKL may be the only riding with a party of the right gaining/keeping a seat. PC support is likely to stay with Nicolls rather than his former light centrist (meaning, also somewhat progressivist repressive) party. Unlike Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, this area has no popular PC incumbent and unlike Elgin-Middlesex-London, it has a very popular sitting Ontario Party MP, with many, perhaps majority of the population looking at a candidate as much as at a party, unlike urban ridings. In spite of early Premier Ford visit, its PC candidate is little known outside of Leamington where he may be fighting with NDP. Voters will not only reward Nicolls for principled opposition to the junk science of COVID not-quite-vaccines, but also because Ford stances against the truckers and on imposing lockdowns remain the primary issues on voters' minds. Premier's supposedly centrist stance of not being the top culprit on these issues (Trudeau takes the crown) may work in Toronto against Lib-NDP repression (where the attention has anyway switched to other issues now) but not in rural Southwest where he is seen as poorly as others by the majority rightly detesting any vaccination-based discrimination. In fact, kicking out Nicolls from caucus may have badly misfired for Ford. It is very likely that a portion of NDP vote of 2018 will also go to Nicolls, with his plausible political platform, potentially even providing a deciding swing vote to affect which measures the reelected Ford government may pass (a la Manchin in the US Senate, except from a small party position). With Liberals not important here this year (and the New Blue remaining a fringe force), Nicolls' success will depend on Jones, Leamington councillor, scoring poorly beyond his town, and on NDP soft vote defecting, both likely scenarios after the pandemic experience. In fact, a drive through the riding reveals Nicolls dominant in signage rather than the PC, with some NDP ads. As for Gone Fishing comment, voters on the right indeed do not like the vote split, but even less so government imposition. And it is different from Cambridge urban environment serving as a barrier to New Blue reelection. The split is possible, but Nicolls has a higher chance of success.
12/05/2022 Gone Gisdhing
A popsicle stick could win this seat for the PCs if it were blue. Conservatives in general can be pretty stupid about a lot of things but conservative VOTERS have a long memory of how vote splitting doomed their vote to Liberal wins. New Blue and Ontario party are not going to mount any serious opposition to what is shaping up to be a PC majority maybe even a rout.
06/05/2022 DR
PCs will hold onto this riding. Incumbent Rick Nicholas is running for the Ontario Party and New Blue is also running and that will split the right wing protest vote NDP and Liberals arenít strong enough here. PCs wonít have it as easy as 2018 but will still win
05/05/2022 R.O.
The liberals are slow on nominating a candidate here did read somewhere that they were running a candidate here although no idea who it is. The green party does have a candidate here its Jennifer Suterus according to posts online. Iím not convinced Derek Sloan or the Ontario party have much traction or well known to many voters like the Peopleís party was. That being said Rick Nichols has been mpp since 2011 so he is well known here and get some votes. Trevor Jones isnít really a high profile candidate for the pcís but Fordís brand is still strong in rural Ontario. the riding hasnít been ndp provincially since the early 90ís , but they have done better than the federal ndp did in recent elections. So could prove to be competitive here. although riding stayed cpc last election despite a surge in peoples party votes.
04/05/2022 Jeff H
Unless the Liberals finally enter a candidate, I think the NDP has the advantage for 2022.
On the right, there's going to be some vote-splitting between the PCs and Nicholls. The PPC took 14.4% in the 2021 federal election; I expect most or all of those voters to move with Nicholls from the PCs to the Ontario Party. Judging by the 2018 provincial results, that would put the PCs somewhere around 37-38%, which is very close to the NDP's 36% last time.
On the left, though, without a Liberal or Green candidate, the NDP stands to pick up most of the 12% of voters who supported those two other parties last time.
It seems like the Liberals and Greens have left this riding alone as part of some "ABC" strategy, and it looks like it will be successful.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
This will be an interesting riding. Leamington councillor Trevor Jones of the PCs will face off against Chatham councillor Brock McGregor of the NDP. Incumbent MPP Rick Nicholls, a longtime mainstay of the PC caucus, has joined Derek Sloan's new Ontario Party, and won't come close to winning but will take a substantial part of the PC vote with him.
MacGregor may be able to mobilize some previously non-NDPers to come out for him in Chatham, but ultimately I think a strong PC result outside of Chatham along with the NDP trending downwards in the Southwest will save things for the PCs.
20/04/22 A.S.
Simply through already having over 1/3 of the vote in '18, *nearly* that amount in '14 even w/the Libs much stronger than in '18, and presently w/an assist from Rick Nicholls' dissident-right candidacy piggybacking over the top PPC result in Ontario (and McGregor's own virtues acting as a bonus), I'd say that the NDP definitely has a shot. Theoretically they *shouldn't*, because this territory's generically gravitated rightward in recent times--and miscalculation of that generic shift led to a lot of '14-buoyed NDP prediction here in '18--but when that rightward gravitation hits a wall and pieces break off as now, weird things can happen. (But it really depends upon how much blue-orange populist swing vote there really is. And locality means a lot--it helped the NDP in Leamington in '14, but now Leamington's the PC candidate's home turf.)
05/04/22 seasaw
This will be a PC hold, neither the NDP nor the Liberals have a shot here. Ford is polling very well in rural parts and yes, Rick Nichols is running again for a fringe party and let’s say he gets 17% support, 100% from PC voters, the Liberals are polling better, they should get 14-15%, most of that is going to come at the expense of the NDP, then if you do the math you’ll see that this will be a PC hold
04/04/22 KXS
Rural SW Ontario will remain PC, especially under a populist leader such as Ford.
The NDP could run a strong candidate here and will still come up short. Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP in 2022 are much different than what they were in 2014 when they were clearly targetting PC-NDP swing voters in areas such as Chatham. Right now the Ontario NDP campaign is designed to hold and expand on the gains they made in the GTA, Waterloo region etc.
I don't think Rick Nicholls has that much appeal that he would split the right-wing vote. I'd be surprised in Nicholls got more than 5% of the vote.
01/04/22 Jason
Rick Nicholls won handily in 2018 after a strong challenge by the NDP and complete collapse of the Ontario Liberals who locally lost over 5,000 votes from 2014. It seems a lot of those voters went to the NDP (just looking at numbers), can never know for sure.
In 2022, Nicholls is running for the Ontario Party in a riding where the PPC got the highest % of the vote in all of Ontario. Given he is the incumbent, he may get more than the 14% the PPC got.
The NDP are running well-known Chatham-Kent councillor Brock McGregor who has represented Chatham, the largest urban area in the riding, on council since 2014. It will be a close race, but given the large support base for the ON Party / PPC and Rick being their only current MPP and likely putting money into the riding, I think the NDP win in a close contest. If everyone who voted PPC in the Federal election, votes for Nicholls it will make this contest very close if the NDP can keep their gains from 2018.
14/03/22 R.O.
Rick Nicholls originally planned to retire after being removed from the pc caucus and sitting as an independent. Now he plans to run as an Ontario Party candidate a fringe party no one has heard of that is lead by former mp Derek Sloan. Trevor Jones is the new pc candidate and unclear who the ndp or liberals will run here.
31/08/21 DR
MPP Rick Nichols was booted from caucus for refusing to be vaccinated. Ford is facing a lot of anger in light of COVID response. NDP expected to campaign hard here
26/08/21 DR
This area may be up for grabs in 2022 among the PCs, Liberals and NDP. PC Rick Nicholls won easily last time but was removed from caucus by Premier Ford for refusing to be vaccinated for COVID-19 and now sits as an independent.
18/06/21 JW
For the most part, Southwestern Ontario (other than KW/Tricities) will be two way fight between PC and NDP. Rural SW has been realiable conservative territory both federally and provincially in the past 15 or so years.
17/06/21 Chris N
Some speculated in 2018 that the NDP would pick this up from the PCs. However, the NDP only increased their vote over 2014 by 3%. I suspect this will be a win for the PCs and Nichols in 2022.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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