Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Don Valley North

Prediction Changed
2022-06-01 02:49:00

Constituency Profile



Astaraki, Ebrahim

Ke, Vincent

Sobel, Jay

Soroka, Ostap

Tsao, Jonathan

Vincent Ke

Population (2016):

Population (2011):103073

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

18,001 52.60%
11,183 32.68%
3,746 10.95%
1,167 3.41%
OTHERS 122 0.36%
Total Transposed 34,218
      Component Riding(s)

Don Valley East
(52.60% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(47.40% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Han Dong
Sarah Fischer
Bruce Griffin
Daniel Giavedoni
Jay Sobel

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Geng Tan
Joe Daniel **
Akil Sadikali
Caroline Brown


01/06/2022 R.O.
Perhaps could be close but would seem to be a pc hold if polls are accurate. They seem to be doing better in suburban Toronto than downtown. And this riding is in north Toronto and borders Markham to the north. Vincent Ke is a good fit for the riding as there is a large Chinese population in north Toronto. The liberal candidate isn’t really that well known and only a temporary city councillor its deceptive that some are trying to claim he’s a well known political figure when he wasn’t even elected to municipal office.
26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I think this will be the most interesting of the 3 Don Valley seats on election night but I think the PC's keep it blue but Jonathan Tsao of the Liberals will make it close.
06/05/2022 SarahMitts
This seat leans heavily leans PC, but is not out of reach of Mr. Tsao, the Liberal candidate. However unlikely, if there is a Liberal surge later in the campaign this could be a pleasant surprise for Team Del Duca. The Liberal candidate has some relevant political experience, but perhaps a shame the party couldn't find a more high profile candidate. There is no doubt there are Liberal candidates eyeing this riding for the next election (beyond 2022). Definitely a riding I will be watching on election night.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Incumbent PC Vincent Ke has faced controversy over his ties to the Chinese government. The Liberals have nominated former city councillor Johnathan Tsao, who's running an energetic campaign. This might be one of the closest results in the City of Toronto, but I think Tsao will pull through.
31/03/22 R.O.
Vincent Ke was first elected in the 2018 election , the riding had no incumbent that year as it was a new riding. He beat liberal candidate Shelley Carroll who was a high profile city councillor. New liberal candidate Jonathan Tsao also a city councillor but only for a few months then didn’t run again in 2018 so name recognition in riding be limited. Ndp yet to select a candidate for the riding but not a riding they focus on.
30/03/22 A.S.
The Libs will surely look to virtually *all* of the outer 416 as a pickup-and-recovery opportunity; however, swing-reliant election-projection types should keep in mind that the '18 Lib figure was almost surely skewed by Shelley Carroll's candidacy (otherwise, it might have been closer to a Lib-NDP draw for 2nd a la Willowdale). So Ke, fueled by a more generic Chinese-electorate swing to the right, is not as vulnerable as he looks--it doesn't mean he's not vulnerable, though, particularly if the growing Sheppard-condo-corridor crowd feels itself to be more electorally cosmopolitan than Ford Nation. (And it remains to be seen whether '21's generic Chinese swing away from the Cons has any kind of provincial echo.)
24/03/22 seasaw
As things stand right now, we're going to have to say PC hold. Currently the PC's are polling better in 416 than they did 4 years ago and that should be enough for them to hang on to this riding, things may change however and so can this prediction
09/07/21 Chris N
Considering the shellacking the LPO took in 2018, the Liberals placed a relatively respectful second in Don Valley North, likely due to the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Shelley Carroll. Carroll is not running in 2022, and will be replaced by Jonathan Tsao, her temporary replacement in 2018 when she vacated her council seat for the provincial run. With the Liberals polling a lot better than 2018, I expect the Liberals to eye this as a possible pick-up in 2022.

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