Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Don Valley West

Prediction Changed
2022-05-06 23:04:00

Constituency Profile



Bowman, Stephanie

Elman, Irwin

Hobbs, Laurel

Kittredge, John

Kladitis, John

Mc Allister, Kylie

Reddick, Paul

Saunders, Mark

Sharp, Sheena

Kathleen Wynne

Population (2016):

Population (2011):99820

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

21,830 56.30%
12,504 32.25%
2,665 6.87%
1,237 3.19%
OTHERS 536 1.38%
Total Transposed 38,771
      Component Riding(s)

Don Valley West
(87.50% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

St. Paul's
(12.50% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Rob Oliphant **
Yvonne Robertson
Laurel MacDowell
Amanda Kistindey
Ian Prittie
John Kittredge

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Rob Oliphant
John Carmichael **
Syeda Riaz
Natalie Hunt **
John Kittredge
Elizabeth Hill
Sharon Cromwell


30/05/2022 R.O.
A lot of people seem to think the liberals will win here even without Kathleen Wynne on the ballot. Del Duca has still made a number of campaign stops in the riding a sign they feel it needs some extra attention this year. Obviously Mark Saunders is a high profile candidate for the pc’s , not exactly sure why he choose this riding over other options such as Scarborough Centre. But he has been running a strong campaign here. true it seem odd if the liberals lost here and won other nearby seats such as Toronto Centre and St Pauls. But that’s exactly what happened the last time they were in opposition , in 99 election Don Valley West stayed pc and nearby downtown ridings went liberal. the riding was extremely close in 2018 so perhaps it could still be close this year.
30/05/2022 Eric
Ke, who some might say is a controversial MPP, hangs on but maybe by 2 points ... Don Valley West's provincial predecessors of Willowdale and Don Valley East were by and large bell-weathers, Willowdale more blue leaning ... this is one riding that if the Liberals win, more momentum for them going forward to 2026, but if not, effectively stalled at least in the short term and closer to the bare minimum for official party status recognition in legislature ... with Del Duca's leadership potentially on the line ...
27/05/2022 MH
It baffles me that the PC's chose DVW for star candidate Mark Saunders. This mostly prosperous, well-educated constituency has been barren territory for the Tories since the late 1990s. They did win it federally in 2011 but by fewer than 700 votes (1.15% difference), and in 2018 the provincial Tories failed to dislodge even the unpopular Kathleen Wynne. Today I did the Sutherland test, Sutherland Avenue being the longest street in Leaside, running from Bayview in the south to Glenvale in the north. The number of lawn signs have in the past pretty accurately predicted the outcome in DVW. Today's count: Stephanie Bowman (Lib) 18, Mark Saunders (PC) 9, Irwin Elman (NDP) 1. An easy hold for the Grits, I believe. Next time, Mark Saunders should look elsewhere for an easier entry into the Legislature.
27/05/2022 DVW resident
Liberal hold, and it won't be close. This is arguably the most anti-populist riding in the country, with the possible exceptions of central Ottawa and Westmount.
Why the Conservatives do not run a banker, lawyer, or similar in this riding, whether provincially or federally, baffles me.
Weak NDP support also means that the anti-Ford vote will coalesce around the Liberals.
While I personally project a PC majority government, it will not be through Don Valley West.
26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
You have to think the PC's want to win this seat. The former seat of former Liberal premier, Kathleen Wynne, who is not running this time. The PC's are running former Toronto police chief Mark Saunders here. Great candidate but wrong riding for him to run in. Liberal win here.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Interesting and high-profile candidates are running to succeed former Premier Kathleen Wynne, and all three parties would dearly love to see their standard-bearer in caucus. Former Ontario Childern's advocate Irwin Elman of the NDP will still likely finish third, though he may slightly improve his party's results if they choose to expend resources here. Former Police Chief Mark Saunders of the PCs would like to follow the example of his predecessors, Julian Fantino and Bill Blair, by entering public office, but probably picked the wrong combination of party and riding to do it. Ultimately, economist and former Bank of Canada board member Stephanie Bowman will hold on to this seat for the Liberals.
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
I think the PCs picked the wrong riding for former Toronto police chief Mark Saunders to run in. Don Valley West is too high-crust, too bougie, for a law-and-order style of candidate. I think Saunders would have been a better choice in a traditionally more blue collar riding like Scarborough Southwest or York South Weston. The Liberals are my bet in DVW.
09/04/22 J.F. Breton
Avec la remont?©e des Lib?©raux, des circonscriptions traditionnellement lib?©rales reviendront dans le giron, particuli?¨rement ?  Toronto, dans l'Est et dans le Nord. Don Valley West fait partie de celles-l? . Perdue par une tr?¨s mince avance conservatrice aux derni?¨res ?©lections, elle basculera du c?´t?© lib?©ral cette fois-ci. D'ailleurs, les agr?©gateurs de sondages la placent dans la colonne rouge.
05/04/22 Landon G.
This is my riding. The Liberals have to be the clear favourites -- the riding has been trending that way for many years, and it's hard to see how they could lose any of the 7 seats they retained in 2018 when they're significantly higher in the polls now. On the other hand, it's hard to know the exact impact of Wynne's departure (or even how the Liberal showing last time would have been different if this hadn't been Wynne's riding), and it's not like the new Liberal candidate is a household name. Also, and oddly, the NDP is running a candidate with a profile here, even though this is almost always a dead-zone for them. I'm not even quite sure what the overall impact of Mark Saunders' PC candidacy will be: his high profile will definitely appeal to some (lots of high achievers in this riding), but his law-and-order profile would have seemed better suited to, e.g., one of the Scarborough ridings where crime is higher. Also, this is a riding where there wasn't much of a "Ford Nation" or populist base at all (look at how Doug Ford did here in his 2014 mayoral run, or the 2018 leadership election). But I'd say that after his first year Ford has generally governed more like a generic, pragmatic Conservative, so some voters here who wouldn't consider the PCs in 2018 may do so now. So, my money at this point is on the Liberals to retain, but there are these complicating factors, and of course the campaign could change things.
02/04/22 AD
An interesting riding with a compelling case for a PC pick-up, but one that I think will fall short. If the riding didn't go liberal last election I am not so convinced it will this one. Also, it is Toronto and I just struggle to believe the tide is moving in that direction.
31/03/22 R.O.
Since my original post former Toronto Police Chief Mark Saunders has been announced as the new pc candidate for Don Valley West. Which caught some by surprise although perhaps not a total surprise he decided to run provincially. Not sure why he didn’t choose the vacant pc riding of Scarborough Centre he’d seem like a good fit there and it has no pc candidate. But this riding still suits him as well and despite being called a liberal stronghold by some it has a deep pc history , true wynne held it from 2003-2022 but had been pc for decades before her other than 1 liberal win in 87 when they won everything in Toronto area. don’t think he could beat Wynne here but new liberal candidate Stephanie Bowman is not well known politically.
29/03/22 A.S.
Saunders might look like a star; but win or lose, something about the riding's a bit too genteel for a "top cop" type of Tory standard-bearer (i.e. as open seats go, something like Scarborough Centre might have been better--and right next door to a fed Lib ex-top-cop standard-bearer, at that). As w/DVE, so w/DVW: if the Libs lose, they'll be tailspinning into irrelevance, Saunders or no Saunders. But unlike DVE, if the Libs lose, it'll almost certainly be to the PCs and nobody else (notwithstanding Elman's own credentials). Though conversely, re the "place in cabinet" argument: if DVWers have to hold their nose to do it, they *might* rather do so on behalf of a Lib/NDP coalition than on behalf of DoFo.
22/03/22 seasaw
The Liberals are not going to lose too many seats that they won the last time,as a matter of fact they will pick up some, but this is one riding that they will lose. Former Toronto Police Chief, Mark Saunders is running for the PC's, he's well known and well liked and somebody who can be in the cabinet, and that's very important to win this riding, while the Liberal candidate is no slouch either, it's unlikely that the Liberals will form the next government and given a choice between a potential cabinet minister and an opposition or even a third party member, guess who's going to win?
10/03/22 R.O.
Kathleen Wynne was first elected here in 2003 but riding had been pc for some time in the 80?˘â‚¬â„˘s and 90?˘â‚¬â„˘s. a lot closer here last time than some expected when Jon Kieran the pc candidate although unclear who there running this election. Most were expecting a by election here but wynne never resigned her seat , by elections generally favour the opposition so they might have been able to hold the seat if there had been one. Some assumed she was saving seat for new leader but Del Duca never choose to seek a seat at queens park this session despite being party leader.
26/02/22 Max Eccles
Kathleen Wynne won this riding in 2018 despite her party's third place showing. I expect her Liberal successor to keep DVW Liberal in June.
06/01/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
I'd say this is one of the most ?˘â‚¬?conservative?˘â‚¬â„˘ ridings in Toronto, but it's also very much a non-populist, non-ford riding. Should be a rather simple win for the Liberals, with this being the type of riding where Del Duca helps the Liberals.
23/10/21 Benna9
FYI, the Liberals have just nominated Stephanie Bowman* as their candidate in DVW, seeking to replace Kathleen Wynne.
* https://ontarioliberal.ca/don-valley-west-nomination/
You just got a call from your new provincial Liberal candidate's office (Stephanie Bowman*) who seeks to replace Kathleen Wynne. They will call back next week.
Comment I found on the Election Prediction Project: ?˘â‚¬?Kathleen Wynne will not run in 2022 after winning by a nose in 2018. At this time it's probably leaning Liberal but I anticipate the PCs will direct a lot of resources into this open seat after coming so close in 2018.?˘â‚¬â„˘
* https://ontarioliberal.ca/don-valley-west-nomination/
15/10/21 Chris N
With Kathleen Wynne retiring, the Liberals have nominated Stephanie Bowman, a Bay Street exec and former Bank of Canada member, to run in her place.
26/05/21 Chris N
Kathleen Wynne will not run in 2022 after winning by a nose in 2018. At this time it's probably leaning Liberal but I anticipate the PCs will direct a lot of resources into this open seat after coming so close in 2018.

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