Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-06 23:05:00

Constituency Profile



Belton, Brigitte

Flack, Rob

Jackson, Heather

Kroeker, Andy

Mal?, Malichi

Millar, Matt

Plumb, Dave

Stark, Amanda

Jeff Yurek

Population (2016):

Population (2011):110109

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

8,748 19.97%
20,649 47.14%
11,489 26.23%
2,159 4.93%
OTHERS 755 1.72%
Total Transposed 43,800
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Karen Vecchio **
Pam Armstrong
Bob Hargreaves
Ericha Hendel
Donald Helkaa
Peter Redecop
Richard Styve

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Karen Louise Vecchio
Lori Baldwin-Sands
Fred Sinclair
Bronagh Joyce Morgan
Michael Hopkins
Lou Bernardi


26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
While the PC's are running a new candidate in Rob Flack in 2022 they should have no trouble holding on here.
15/05/2022 prog15
Rob Flack has switched from a challenging federal London West riding of 2021 where he would have probably won without Peoples Party around, to a much more winnable EML provincially. The two right parties' dissenting will remain limited due to a scare of NDP or Lib oppression (in neighbouring Chatham-Kent with incumbent Rick Nichols it might be different, though!). Heather Jackson has actually been fairly popular as a mayor and is seen by many as pragmatic manager, without academic elitist baggage of the likes of Kate Graham in LNC, making a second place possible, but her extremely unpopular party (in EML) will pull her down. For many, it is a DelDuca party of repression (against popular truckers, among others where the OLP leader has simply been a Trudeau stooge) and the new votes she may get will come almost entirely from an NDP making a second place race open - a known mayor against a little-known candidate of the more popular of the opposition parties. With Flack shown to be a good campaigner, I do not expect a major PC vote decline, enough for a PC victory.
14/05/2022 Nysuloem
If Jeff Yurek were running here, I'd say this riding were an easy PC victory. Rob Flack is a very palatable candidate, too, and will likely do quite well here, but I think that Heather Jackson may be able to steal this riding back for the Liberals. I know others have called her a "defeated mayor", who was ousted by a former Conservative, but there is also a lot of anger in this riding about mask and vaccine mandates, which may draw some voters away from the PCs (to some of these fringe parties popping up). Whatever happens here, I think it will be a much tighter race than has been seen in many elections.
13/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
Despite a Star Candidate, the Liberals will likely still finish 3rd or 4th here. They're just too disliked in this part of the province, and the NDP second place strength can't really be overcome
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Incumbent Jeff Yurek isn't running again. Even by rural Southwestern Ontario standards this is a pretty safe Conservative seat, and PC Rob Flack will be returned.
23/04/22 AD
This is an interesting riding that may very well be changing but definitely hasn't changed enough to alter the PCs winning here again.
20/04/22 A.S.
Jackson might be a former St Thomas mayor; but relative to the Libs in SW Ontario, 2022 isn't Steve Peters' 1999--and furthermore, Jackson's a *defeated* former St Thomas mayor, and by a former Con MP at that. That might still be enough to repatriate 2nd place for the party; but anything beyond that would require the assist of a dissident right force--which in light of Aylmer being a hub for the anti-vaxx/anti-lockdown movement (and this all being next door to Rick Nicholls' CKL), cannot be *entirely* ruled out.
31/03/22 KXS
How is this TCTC? Rural SW Ontario has been reliably conservative for over a decade. The PCs are polling well enough that this riding should be an easy hold.
The Liberals finished third here when they won a majority in 2014. It would be a respectable feat if the Liberal star candidate finishes ahead of the NDP in this riding.
12/03/22 EP
With Yurek retiring and PC nominating someone not from the key population centre in the riding, this may not be as sure a bet as people think.
The Liberals is kind of following their 1999 victory formula and nominating a former St Thomas Mayor. It would still be a very steep uphill battle, but Heather Jackson certain gives them a fighting chance.
10/03/22 R.O.
Jeff Yurek announced his retirement a couple months back and resigned his seat but even without him on the ballot this riding has been mostly conservative lately. Rob Flack is the new pc candidate and Andy Kroeker the ndp candidate. Perhaps would have been an interesting by election riding but likely to stay pc.
18/06/21 JW
For the most part, Southwestern Ontario (other than KW/Tricities) will be two way fight between PC and NDP. Rural SW has been realiable conservative territory both federally and provincially in the past 15 or so years.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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