Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-08 23:33:00

Constituency Profile



Brar, Manpreet

Causarano, Frank

Leardi, Anthony

Leclair, Ron

Linfield, Kevin

Sylvester, Danielle

Wendler, Nicholas

Taras Natyshak

Population (2016):

Population (2011):120477

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

6,369 14.33%
9,677 21.77%
26,807 60.31%
1,593 3.58%
OTHERS !Syntax Error, *%
Total Transposed 44,445
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Chris Lewis
Tracey Ramsey **
Audrey Festeryga
Jennifer Alderson
Bill Capes

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Tracey Ramsey
Jeff Watson **
Audrey Festeryga
Jennifer Alderson
Enver Villamizar


01/06/2022 C B
Took a drive through the two more liberal towns in the county several days ago. PC signs vastly outnumber any other. NDP definitely in second. Good presence for the other two right parties, who appear to be evenly splitting that vote, unlike in Windsor where the Ontario Party seemingly dominates it, but it wont be enough to make a difference. Liberal vote will go up enough to ensure the PC win, while still lagging far behind the others. Bottom line: the only reason this stayed NDP in 2018 was due to incumbency advantage which they do not now have. Keep this prediction as is.
30/05/2022 seasaw
Predicting this to be a PC pick up is a bit of a stretch. Sure, theyve won here federally in 6 of the last 7 elections, but this is provincial, and its a whole lot different. They also lost a close one the last time, but that was then, this is now. Right now, Andrea Horwath is trying to keep her party at official opposition and they will need to win ridings like this to keep their position
26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Seeing a lot of thought this seat will go PC on June 2.I don't know why. It may be an open seat but it's been NDP since 2011 and the area hasn't been PC friendly in the past. The PC's probably win on June 2 but it won't be because they win this seat.
24/05/2022 seasaw
We can't expect the Liberals here to stay at 5%. They will probably end up somewhere in the 15-20% range and they will take some votes away from both the NDP and the PC's. Then there's Ontario and New Blue, they will take enough votes from the PC's and I expect this riding to be close, I believe the NDP will eventually end up on top.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
The only thing preventing the PCs from picking this up in 2018 was NDP MPP Taras Natyshak's incumbent advantage. With Natyshak stepping down, this seat will go the way of it's federal cousin and see former Amherstburg councillor Anthony Leardi take it for the PCs.
20/04/22 A.S.
If one thing can be deduced from '18, it's that if Natyshak had retired one election earlier, this seat could have, and perhaps *would* have, fallen to the Tories--their second pickup from the NDP after Kenora-Rainy River. As it stands, it *could* be an interesting test for whether that oft-misunderstood '14-style "Andrea populism" spirit can be rekindled alongside the "Andrea urbanism" thrust of '18. Sure, Tracey Ramsey could only go so far federally; but neither Mulcair nor Jagmeet were Andrea-level (or at least, Andrea '14-level) in their "reach", even if Jagmeet was a Windsor kid. And I'm just emphasizing said populism because, well, the NDP's gotta figure *something* out in the riding where the Tories got their strongest '18 losing result (and stronger than all but one of their wins in Mississauga). In fact, Chris Lewis did better in provincial loss than he did in federal win subsequently. (Which leads one to wonder: from which side will a presumably resurgent Liberal party take from?)
06/04/22 R.O.
Taras Nathyshak isn’t running again he had been mpp of this riding since 2011 and prior to that it had been a liberal riding. Despite being cpc federally in most elections since 2004 it hasn’t been pc provincially in recent memory despite some strong finishes here. former pc candidate Chris Lewis is also now the mp after being elected in 2019. I’d like there chances more here if he was still the candidate but new candidate Anthoy Leardi still well known in the riding. New ndp candidate is Ron Leclair who is a school trustee in the area so not a totally unknown ndp candidate. New liberal candidate is Manpreet Brar but been a tough riding for them lately , hard to believe they went from 56 % of the vote here in 1999 when Bruce Crozier mpp to 5 % of the vote in 2018.
04/04/22 Stevo
Certain PC pickup. Rural riding, retiring incumbent, and an NDP leader well past her sell-by date.
26/01/22 Bill Loubert
Taras Natyshak is out, and they don't have a replacement named for the NDP. Who's got the profile and is from an underrepresented demographic that they would allow to run. Tracey Ramsey is about as good as it'll get, but twice now she couldn't beat Chris Lewis federally.
This riding is done. It'll be Anthony Leardi for the PCs.
06/01/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
With Natyshak not running again, it become a lot more difficult to predict this seat. If the NDP can muster up a decent candidate I believe they can win this, but if they get a less good candidate I would say this leans in the PC column.
23/12/21 KXS
Natyshak is not running again. The Tories have an advantage at the moment.
15/12/21 seasaw
Taras just announced that he?€™s quitting politics, so things got a lot more interesting. Now that this is an open seat, it could be a dog fight between the NDP and the PC with an outside chance for the Liberals.
02/12/21 The Lobster
This is clearly too close to call, especially when seats like Niagara Centre and Oshawa are listed as too close to call. The gap between NDP and PCs reduced from more than 38% to less than 5% between 2014 and 2018, despite a small shift *towards* the NDP (even vis-??-vis the PCs) province-wide. This is partially because the Liberal vote collapsed, but it's not only because of that: Conservative parties are becoming more working class, making ridings like this (and Niagara Centre, Oshawa, and St. Catharine's for that matte) in play, and ridings like Sault Ste. Marie and Kenora--Rainy River becoming safer and safer for the PCs.
Now, is this a guaranteed pickup? Absolutely not. Strategic voters will know Taras is their choice. But expect the PCs to invest heavily in ridings like this one because it will give them more room to lose in GTA/Ottawa and because, even though the Liberals will be a distant third here, they will likely be doing less abominably than they did in 2018.
08/10/21 Dr Bear
In what way has Taras failed this riding? I genuinely would like to know, assuming that this isn?€™t just partisan bluster. Unless someone can provide a convincing argument, I don?€™t see how Taras and the NDP will lose this seat. If it did not tip PC in the 2018 wave year, then it is unlikely to tip in a year when the PC have to defend a dubious record.
19/07/21 Samantha P
This is target seat #1 for Doug Ford. Taras has failed this riding and Ford is delivering on highway 3. The liberal leader is invisible and the riding is held federally by a Conservative. This will be a safe bet for PC.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
All of essex should be a fairly safe hold for the NDP. Taras is fairly popular here, and the PCs likely won't do as well here as in 2018, which would mean and NDP hold.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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