Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Etobicoke Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-05-30 01:09:00

Constituency Profile



Gilboy, Mitchell

Habus, Cathy

Kiernicki, Richard M.

Maclean, Brian

Semple, Noel

Surma, Kinga

Vickers-Wong, Heather

Zaitsev, Genadij

Kinga Surma

Population (2016):

Population (2011):114910

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

22,694 48.70%
15,104 32.41%
5,368 11.52%
1,223 2.62%
OTHERS 2,210 4.74%
Total Transposed 46,600
      Component Riding(s)

Etobicoke Centre
(93.42% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(6.58% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Yvan Baker
Ted Opitz
Heather Vickers-Wong
Cameron Semple
Nicholas Serdiuk
Mark Wrzesniewski

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Borys Wrzesnewskyj
Ted Opitz **
Tanya De Mello
Shawn Rizvi
Rob Wolvin


27/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
Infrastructure Minister Kinga Surma is now clearly leading here and should win handily. Shes done a good job and the Ford Factor will carry Etobicoke Centre, black Creek and York South Weston.
26/05/2022 Tony
2 The 2 non ford Etobicoke seats should be interesting to watch on June 2, I think this one will stay in the PC fold.
25/05/2022 R.O.
There is a riding specific poll from Mainstreet that shows a small pc lead here but I cant seem to find the actual numbers but its mentioned in another article I just saw. Province wide numbers continue to stay largely the same and pcs lead. Considering they did well in Etobicoke last election would seem that is continuing this election. I just dont see Del Duca making inroads in areas that have typically supported Ford in the past.
13/05/2022 Libby Burgundy
The Liberals are coming under pressure to torch their candidate in light of a mildly anti-LGBT letter he published in the student paper in 2004.
If the Liberals do pull up stakes, this riding becomes a virtual lock for the PCs, especially as Toby Centre adjoins Ford's own district. Stay tuned.
06/05/2022 R.O.
Is some new numbers for Toronto in the forum poll which help to explain the race in the 416 . there is essentially 2 very different political realities in Toronto. The downtown which is a race between the liberals and ndp . and the suburbs where the pcs lead. In Etobicoke there numbers are 47 pc , 35 lib and 11 ndp. In downtown Toronto its 37 lib , 37 ndp and pc 22 . so can see how much of a difference there is depending where you are in Toronto this election. I recall something similar occurred when Ford ran for mayor , the downtown was an area he did horrible in but the suburbs were a place he found a lot of support.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
This Ford Nation riding will likely stay with supreme Ford loyalist Kinga Surma. If the Liberals win against the PCs provincewide, I could see them narrowly taking it, but not on the current numbers.
08/04/22 Finn
This riding is more difficult to predict than one might think. The Liberals only lost by 9 percent last time, which in theory should put them poised to win this riding. However, there is no doubt Yvan Baker greatly improved the Liberals numbers there. The question is, by how much? With Yvan Baker not running again (as he is the sitting member for this seat federally now) the question now is whether or not Ford Nation will band together to re-elect Surma, or do the Liberals have the numbers to take this seat. Complete toss up, could go both ways.
30/03/22 A.S.
As a chirpy cheerleader for the Ford Nation brand, Surma's long been dogged by rumours re her nudge/wink "closeness" to the Premier; and indeed, the accumulated net effect of such rumours might have led to her relative '18 underperformance (and to a degree, Yvan Baker's surprising overperformance: the 4th strongest Lib share in Toronto, 6th strongest in the GTA) in the Premier's own home riding. In the end, Etobicoke Centre constituents are more "stealth sensible" than hyper-Ford National--after all, John Tory (or "John Liberal", to use the label preferred by the more trollish Ford Nation diehards) basically ran Doug Ford to a mayoral draw here in '14. Even Chris Stockwell (who encapsulated his own era's answer to Conservative Etobi-populism) appealed to that "stealth sensible"--which might be in part why he beat Doug Sr. for the riding nomination in '99. So don't assume, even in a post-Yvan Baker provincial era, that Surma has it in the bag; if the Libs are on a comeback path and the Tories headed for at least a "Davis minority" scale of humiliation, she could be among the higher-profile scalps claimed. And incidentally, as for Doug's end of the spectrum, the riding saw '21's best federal result for PPC, so if there's a dissident force mobilized to split the right and humiliate the Premier in his own literal backyard, don't say I didn't warn you (of course, bonus points if it were with the support of Dave & Krista Haynes).
14/03/22 R.O.
Kinga Surma was first elected here in 2018 , riding had been pc in the 90?€™s when Chris Stockwell mpp. Etobicoke was also ford nation territory during the municipal elections and fords own riding borders this one to the north. The liberals are also running a new candidate Noel Semple as former mpp Yvan Baker is now mp for same riding. Well other parts of Toronto more competitive feel Ford will hold the Etobicoke area as thats always been his base.
26/02/22 Max Eccles
Right now I have this as a PC hold, but it is not outside of reach for the Liberals if they can improve in the polls.
07/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Given that Yvan Baker probably boosted the liberals results by quite a bit last time, I feel this is a likely conservative hold. Especially given that it's so close to Etobicoke North, and Ford's dad used to hold part of this riding.

Navigate to Ontario 2022 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2022 | www.electionprediction.org | Email Webmaster