Flamborough-Glanbrook

	Cillis, Allison
	Juchniewicz, Walt
	Mahood, Nikita
	Portak, Mario
	Simoes, Paul
	Skelly, Donna
	Willems, Melisse

Incumbent:

		Donna Skelly
Population (2016):			111065
Population (2011):			97081
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		DONNA SKELLY
		22,454	43.53%
		MELISSA MCGLASHAN
		17,630	34.17%
		JUDI PARTRIDGE
		7,967	15.44%
		JANET ERRYGERS
		2,307	4.47%
		GLENN LANGTON
		541	1.05%
		RUDY MILLER
		451	0.87%
		ROMAN SARACHMAN
		238	0.46%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		15,372	35.58%
		15,325	35.47%
		9,791	22.66%
		1,955	4.53%
	OTHERS	758	1.76%
	Total Transposed		43,202
Component Riding(s)
	Niagara West-Glanbrook (45.21% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (45.14% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Hamilton Mountain (9.66% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		David Sweet **
		24,527	39.20%
		Jennifer Stebbing
		22,875	36.60%
		Allison Cillis
		10,322	16.50%
		Janet Errygers
		3,833	6.10%
		David Tilden
		982	1.60%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		David Sweet **
		24,137	43.50%
		Jennifer Stebbing
		21,728	39.10%
		Mike DiLivio
		7,779	14.00%
		David Allan Urquhart
		1,866	3.40%

	26/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
I have the PC's winning this seat.
	01/05/2022	Hammer 142.116.165.176
Flam-Glan may be nominally Hamilton but its still Hamilton. Ironically, the urban sprawl Skelly supports may be her downfall as suburban Watardown-Flamorough tends to vote Liberal and as Hamilton residents spill over Rymal Road the NDP votes will increase. Skelly should still win but its not a slam dunk and if opposition coalesces around another candidate she will be in trouble.
	27/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Easy win for PC incumbent Donna Skelly.
	14/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Re Skelly/Mulroney's police escort: remember that FlamGlan is only nominally a *Hamilton* riding, and that's due to the mega-amalgamation induced under a previous provincial Tory regime. Plus, the anticipated '21 federal Lib pickup due to open seatdom and suburbanization didn't take (then again, the rurban-plus-newburban nature of FlamGlan practically made it a western Golden Horseshoe pendant to Erin O'Toole's Durham, and w/a touch of Skippy's Carleton thrown in for good measure). Still, the NDP have one advantage over '18 in that their candidate's not a parachute--except that the Libs will probably claim '18 to be proof that the NDP's unelectable here, period: "vote for us, instead, you did so in the Ted McMeekin years". (And if that self-immolating tug of war happens, the following principle shall always be kept in mind: Flamborough Liberal, Glanbrook NDP.)
	30/03/22	Finn 72.138.106.30
This riding should be a slam dunk for the PCs. They won by a healthy margin last time around, and both the Liberals and the NDP are too split to pose a threat to Donna Skelly. PC hold.
	10/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
As this riding has only had 1 election under these boundaries isn?¢â‚¬â„¢t a lot to look back on , it has been cpc federally the last 3 elections. Donna Skelly was first elected in 2018 but had ran previously in the old Ancaster Dundas riding. Ndp surged in Hamilton last election but didn?¢â‚¬â„¢t win here so perhaps a tough riding for them , Allison Cillis there new candidate.
	26/06/21	Hammer 142.120.104.154
When you are the sole gov't MP for a city of 500,000 who rarely votes for your party, you need to deliver and Skelly has not. There's really not much reason for people to vote for her yet the riding is fairly conservative leaning. It will be interesting to see who the Liberals nominate and how many votes move from the conservatives to the liberals. This will be tight -- incumbency and name recognition give Skelly some advantage but lack of results combined with growing urbanization point to the Liberals and then there is the natural tendency for Hamilton voters even in the suburbs to vote NDP. If Del Duca gains some traction as the Liberal leader (doubtful), it will swing Liberal. If not, its a three way race and we're looking at voter turnout and enthusiasm. And I'm still amused at the image of Caroline Mulroney along with Skelly leaving Hamilton under polce escort. If you need a police escort to leave the city you represent, you might be reconsider the way you represent your city.