Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-06 23:05:00

Constituency Profile



Brady, Bobbi Ann

Chouhdery, Aziz

Coverdale, Erik

Hawkins, Nate

Hewitt, Ken

Lowe, Sarah

Mcmorrow, George

Ross, Thecla

Simpson, Sheldon

Toby Barrett

Population (2016):

Population (2011):108051

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

8,331 19.72%
22,066 52.22%
9,786 23.16%
2,071 4.90%
OTHERS !Syntax Error, *%
Total Transposed 42,254
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Diane Finley **
Kim Huffman
Adrienne Roberts
Brooke Martin
Bob Forbes
Harold Stewart
Lily Eggink

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Diane Finley **
Joan Mouland
John Harris
Wayne Ettinger
Dave Bylsma
Dustin Wakeford
Leslie Bory


27/05/2022 Andy
There is a ton of backlash against Hewitt and the party for engineering his candidacy, as well as for his absence from candidate nights. Brady is well-known and connected here, and with the far right parties siphoning votes from the PCs, this riding will be very close I suspect. I think Brady by a nose.
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Going to be an interesting riding given the fact the former MPP's assistant is running as an independent. That said this area has been PC since 1995, doubt that changes here in 2022.
18/05/2022 Eric
If Toby Barrett himself was running as the independent, this might be different, but the PC party will hang on here. If we take off maybe 8 - 9 % from the 2018 PC vote (57%) for New Blue and Ontario (combined, roughly equal to the People's Party federally last year in the area) as well as 8 - 9% for the independent Brady then the PCs still have 40%. I doubt they will get less than that. Neither the Liberals nor NDP will exceed 40%. PC Hold. The days where rural south west Ontario went for the provincial Liberals while downtown Toronto went PC, keeping the Big Blue Machine in power, are long gone ...
28/04/22 R.O.
Reading some articles online about this riding , for sure an odd race here starting to take shape. Toby Barrett’s former executive assistant Bobbi Ann Brady is running as an independent with the backing of the former mpp. Barrett is also quoted as saying he told the pc’s some time ago that he wasn’t going to run again yet it wasn’t announced until now and no nomination meeting was held leading to Ken Hewitt being declared the candidate. With questions as to how conservative he really as and if he was even been a member of the provincial party. that being said still no word on ndp or liberal candidates and both parties have typically not done well here provincially. although a pc hold with a smaller margin still the most likely outcome.
27/04/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
Generally Haldimand is the more conservative leaning part, so having their mayor won't shift too much. Generally, the Liberals were only competitive here when the party itself was more centre-right, and Nixon usually just raked up the margins in Brant county, without too much strength when he had some of these areas. I think the lack of a Liberal or NDP candidate speaks well enough for their chances here, though perhaps the NBP being centred in the southwest will allow them to reach 20%, given Hewitt's more liberal tendencies(though he's smart enough to know which party will win).
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Looks like the party might have put longtime PC MPP Toby Barrett out to pasture. He's not happy about it, but that won't stop Haldimand Mayor Ken Hewitt from holding this ultra-safe PC seat.
27/04/22 Political Man
This riding should be moved to too close to call. Toby Barrett is retiring and is not endorsing the appointed PC candidiate. That along with the upstart New Blue Party which is sure the take some of the traditionally Barrett vote away. In addition the Liberals are much stronger than in 2018. All being told this riding is sure to get a lot more attention this time around.
24/04/22 JW
Well, not so happy a transition.
Will be interesting to see if this is a PC riding or a Toby riding. While Toby has secure high 50% ~ low 60% in most elections, federally this has been somewhat competitive. It was held by Martin era minister Bob Speller for four terms (granted, when the right was split). Even high profile cabinet minister Diane Finley only scored over 50% once. So, the PC is perhaps taking this a bit for granted...
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
Long-time MPP Toby Barrett said he will not run again. Regardless of who runs for the PCs, this will be a safe PC hold.
21/04/22 R.O.
Toby Barrett just announced his retirement which was a surprise but perhaps shouldn’t of been as he’s well into his 70’s and been an mpp since 1995. The new pc candidate is Ken Hewitt who is mayor of Haldimand. Its unclear who the ndp, green or liberal candidates are at his point. Mostly rural riding with Simcoe the only major centre and held by Leslyn Lewis federally who is one of the more right of centre cpc mp’s.
20/04/22 seasaw
This riding has been reliably PC since 1995. Has it been a PC riding or a Toby Barrett riding? That is the question. Remember prior to 1995, most of this riding was reliably Liberal. It was Bob Nixon and Premier Harry Nixon’s riding. With Barrett’s retirement, this riding is now up for grabs, and with the Liberals trying to make something of themselves, this will be one rural riding that they will keep their eyes on. So, we may have a Liberal representing this part of the province come June.
20/04/22 A.S.
A rare rural SW Ontario seat where the PCs in '18 underpolled both '07 and '11--but that's only because Toby Barrett had freakish 60+ mandates in those years. Even his more "sober" '18 figure was the party's best performance in SW Ontario that year; it just happened to be that the validated "outside alternative populist choice" of NDP relieved him some of his recent-past top-heaviness (and it was the first time any party other than PC finished with over a quarter of the vote since '03). Ironically, the *federal* Cons this century have never gotten higher than a bare majority in '11--though Leslyn Lewis + PPC in '21 outpolled Barrett in '18, if that means anything.
15/03/22 R.O.
Toby Barrett has been mpp for the riding since 1995 , he plans to run again. This rural area has became more conservative over the years . its unclear who the ndp or liberals plan to run here , likely pc hold.
12/05/21 Chris N
Toby Barrett is one of the few remaining PC MPPs from the Harris era. The riding has been reliably conservative and should stay that way in 2022.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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